Credit Suisse - Indo Tambangraya Megah - Pricing in the acquisition?

● ITMG’s share prices have risen and outperformed its peers with

the recent news that the company is bidding for a 51% stake in

the non-listed Berau Coal.

● Assets of Berau Coal should be a good complement to Banpu’s

given their location, size and quality. However, in our view, it is too

early to start pricing the deal in ITMG’s share price. The bidding is

reported to be competitive.

● Next data point is 2Q09’s results announcement on 11 August.

We expect net profit to fall from US$102 mn to US$52 mn as

mark-to-market swap gain in 1Q09 turned to loss in 2Q09 as spot

prices rise. We expect core net profit to fall QoQ from US$78 mn

to US$61 mn due to lower prices. ITMG should be on track to

reach our profit forecast for FY09.

● We see the acquisition as a potential catalyst but we prefer to

price in more conservatively. Short-term upside may be limited as

the market may be pricing in a successful acquisition too early.

Maintain OUTPERFORM with target price at Rp22,000.._,_.



From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
On Behalf Of charles_3983
Sent: Wed, 05 Aug 2009 15:06 PM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [ob] ada info kenapa ITMG minus gede hari ini ga?





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