He he he...Kalo gitu PTBA dan kawan2 bakal MAEN donk.......ngarep.com
On 8/20/09, CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com> wrote:
> =======
> BUY, BUY, BUY! KEEP BUYING AND NEVER SELL!
>
> Coal Price Forecast Upgrade
>
> We have raised our coal price forecasts principally in response to improving
> supply/demand fundamentals in Asia/Pacific. We now believe that the balance
> of risk for 2010/11 fixed price contracts is for a price increase rather
> than a
> decrease. *We prefer metallurgical coal over thermal coal*.
> *Metallurgical Coal*
> • *We have raised our 2010/11 Australia/Japan benchmark forecast for*
> *hard coking coal to US$140/t (previously US$120/t) and have*
> *maintained prices at this level in 2011/12 (previously US$110/t)*.
> • Strong demand from China and India, together with an anticipated
> recovery in demand from key importers such as Europe and Japan will
> put pressure on Australian supply chains, drawing more higher cost
> north American and possibly Russian coal into the system.
> • PCI price forecast raised to $100/t, largely due to Chinese demand.
> *Thermal Coal*
> • Fundamentals slightly less robust than for metallurgical but *export*
> *constraints in Australia (and possibly Indonesia) could result in a much*
> *tighter market by late 2009*, paving the way for higher contract prices.
> • We have raised our benchmark 2010/11 price forecast to $80/t.
> *Where are the Risks?*
> • Weaker than expected pick up in steel production outside China (notably
> Europe and Japan) leading to delayed/muted re-stocking.
> • Chinese contractual performance risk: foreign coal could price itself out
> of the market leading to defaults on booked tonnage.
>
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