baru bisa buka.....gimana nasib BUMI besok? akankah mining hancur dan ditahan
sektor lain, atau semua DIHANCURKAN?
STORYPHOTOVIDEO
Coal Rally Ending as China Shuns Imports, Opens Mines (Update3)
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By Bloomberg News
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- China’s unprecedented appetite for
imported coal is about to be sated, jeopardizing a five-month
rally in prices by adding to a global surplus of the fuel used
in power plants from Perth to Chicago.
After importing a record 48 million tons in the first six
months, China is opening mines idled by worker deaths this year
following safety upgrades in a bid to bolster economic growth.
Huadian Power International Corp. expects China’s largest coal-
mining province, Shanxi, to boost output by 60 percent in the
second half of the year. That would mean an increase of 150
million metric tons, almost twice what Germany burns annually.
With little need to buy coal outside the country, prices
may tumble, falling as much as 7 percent in Europe alone,
Barclays Capital says. China’s purchases will plunge 33 percent
between June 30 and Dec. 31, based on the median estimate of
four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
“In the first half, China really supported the market and
put a pretty firm floor under the thermal-coal price because it
was sucking in so many imports,” said Andrew Harrington, an
analyst at Patersons Securities Ltd. in Sydney. “It’s difficult
to be confident that it will continue at such a rate.”
China’s July coal imports fell 13 percent to 13.9 million
tons from 16 million tons in June, a record high, customs data
show today. Demand from China, which uses coal to generate about
80 percent of its electricity, helped ease a global supply glut
that sent U.S. inventories to an 18-year high.
Earnings Hit
A retreat in prices may curb profit at Xstrata Plc, the
mining company that is the biggest shipper of coal for power
stations, said Nick Hatch, an analyst at ING Groep NV in London.
Coal was the biggest contributor to operating earnings last year
for Zug, Switzerland-based Xstrata, which boosted output of the
mineral by 11 percent in the first half.
“If China stops importing as much coal, it clearly may
mean lower coal prices in the seaborne market, and that could
have an impact on earnings,” said Hatch, who has a “buy”
rating on Xstrata and mining companies Rio Tinto Group and Anglo
American Plc, which also produce coal.
Claire Divver, a spokeswoman for Xstrata, declined to
comment. Murray Houston, the general manager for the company’s
South African coal unit, said on Aug. 13 that shipments to China
will increase “due to a tight domestic market.”
Six-month supply contracts signed by Chinese buyers in
February and March are expiring and aren’t likely to be renewed
at the same amounts as global costs remain high and as domestic
supplies rise, said Huang Teng, the general manager of Beijing
LT Consultant Ltd., a coal consultant based in the capital city.
China Prices
Chinese provinces are accelerating the expansion of coal
mines, the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association
said in a statement on its Web site today. The reopening of
small mines in regions including Shanxi will increase supplies
and put pressure on prices. The benchmark price at Qinhuangdao
port was unchanged for a third week at 570 yuan ($83.44) a ton
on Aug. 24, according to the government-backed association.
Coal futures for September delivery at Rotterdam, the
benchmark for Europe, have risen 39 percent to $72 a ton on Aug.
21 from this year’s low of $51.75 on March 12. Prices rebounded
from a 35 percent decline last year, when the recession slowed
demand for electricity. Supplies for delivery in January are
trading 7.6 percent higher than the September contract.
Shrinking Premium
That premium for delivery early next year may shrink
because China won’t be buying as much of the world’s surplus,
said Amrita Sen, a commodity analyst at Barclays Capital in
London. Coal delivered at Rotterdam will fall to an average of
$67.20 a ton from $72 in the first six months, she said.
“China has been a key factor in providing a floor to
prices and any softening in Chinese buying will pressure coal,”
Sen said. “We will see a softening on a month-on-month basis in
Chinese coal imports.”
Prices of coal shipped from South Africa’s Richard’s Bay,
which exports to Europe and Asia, posted a second straight drop
last week. Export prices at the port fell 10 cents, or 0.2
percent, to an average of $64 a metric ton in the week ended
Aug. 21, according to McCloskey Group Ltd.
An end to the global recession may trim the surplus. China
has spent 4 trillion yuan in a stimulus package designed to
support its economy. The world’s third-largest economy grew 7.9
percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after
expanding at the slowest pace in almost a decade the previous
three months, the statistics bureau said July 16.
‘Extraordinary’ Measures
“Price momentum and volume momentum are so strong, it’s
difficult to see why the price should go down,” said Eugen
Weinberg, a senior commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG in
Frankfurt. “Measures to initiate demand are extraordinary.”
Drax Group Plc, the owner of western Europe’s biggest coal-
fed power plant, has no plans to sell its surplus inventories of
the fuel because the North Yorkshire, U.K.-based company expects
the value of the commodity to increase.
“We see the coal market rising,” Chief Executive Officer
Dorothy Thompson said on an Aug. 4 conference call with
reporters. “It does not make sense to sell coal now.”
China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal,
ordered the closure of almost all 10,000 of the country’s small
pits during the Spring Festival in January, and plans to open
some were delayed following a deadly accident in February.
An explosion at a shaft in Shanxi killed 74 and injured as
many as 114 miners, leading to more intense safety checks. Small
mines that account for about 25 percent of China’s production
were told to merge and those deemed unsafe were closed.
Most Deadly
The nation’s coal mines are the most deadly in the world,
with 3,770 workers killed in 2007, more than 100 times the
number of fatalities in the U.S., the second-largest producer,
according to government data. Suppliers kept old pits open,
ignoring safety rules and forgoing routine checks, to meet
surging demand from the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
The mine closures and lower prices led to an increase in
purchases from overseas. Imports surged to 16 million tons in
June, bringing the first-half total to 48 million, according to
customs data. Thermal-coal futures in Newcastle, Australia, the
world’s largest coal port, have rallied 22 percent from a low in
March to $72.90 a ton on Aug. 21, according to ICE Futures.
While most of the world’s output is used near where it is
mined, export prices are determined by the remaining 16 percent
bought and sold internationally, data from the London-based
World Coal Institute show. Thermal coal used in power plants
accounts for 92 percent of global production and 72 percent of
international trade, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
The rest is mostly used in steelmaking.
Safety Checks
After completing safety checks and consolidating small pits
that had an annual capacity of 300,000 tons or less, the
province of Shanxi is accelerating the pace of mine openings to
revive the worst-performing provincial economy in China. The
region’s gross domestic product contracted 4.4 percent in the
first half, according to government data.
“The province started approving restructuring plans in
April and the process of consolidating mines has started,” said
David Fang, the director of the international department at the
China Coal Transport and Distribution Association. “Small mines
are reopening gradually.”
Of the 10,000 small mines in China, about 2,598 are in
Shanxi, according to the China Daily newspaper. Output in Shanxi
may rise to 400 million tons in the second half from 250 million
tons in the first six months, said Chen Jianhua, the president
of Huadian Power, the fourth-largest Hong Kong-listed Chinese
electricity generator. Chen expects Shanxi production to reach
650 million tons in 2009.
China produced 2.6 billion tons last year, according to the
national bureau of statistics, which compiles data for the
government. China is likely to cut imports by 33 percent in the
second half of the year to 32 million tons, according to four
analysts and industry officials in a Bloomberg survey.
Swelling Supplies
Reduced demand may swell global supplies that ballooned
during the recession. Stockpiles held by electricity generators
in the U.K., Europe’s biggest importer of coal, rose 68 percent
in May from a year earlier to 17.4 million tons, the most since
at least 1995, government data show.
“Europeans are fully stocked, but not reselling because
they fear higher prices with an Asia-led economic recovery,”
said Emmanuel Fages, a Paris-based commodities analyst at Orbeo.
“The cost of carry for storing coal is cheaper than buying the
coal for later delivery.”
U.S. Inventories
In the U.S., inventories jumped 15 percent in the first
four months of the year, compared with a 1.1 percent gain in
2008 and 2.4 percent in 2007, Department of Energy data show.
Stockpiles at the end of last year totaled 199.2 million short
tons (180.7 million metric tons), the highest since 1991.
Global supply of internationally traded thermal coal is
forecast at 633 million tons next year, exceeding demand by 14
million tons, according to forecasts from Macquarie Group Ltd.,
Australia’s largest investment bank.
The rapid increase in Chinese coal output may upset the
calculations of producers in other countries, including the
U.S., where exports rose 38 percent last year.
St. Louis-based Peabody Energy Corp. sold 16 percent of its
coal production outside the U.S. last year, regulatory filings
show. The company’s sales outside the U.S. climbed 30 percent to
40.3 million tons, outpacing total sales growth of 8.2 percent
to 255.5 million.
“China has been an indirect market” for the U.S., said
James M. Rollyson, an energy analyst at Raymond James Financial
Inc. “It’s soaked up capacity from Australia, so it kind of
makes waves into other markets.”
--Winnie Zhu. With assistance from Ben Sharples in Melbourne,
Paul Dobson, Alistair Holloway and Simon Casey in London,
Mario Parker in Chicago, Christopher Martin in New York and
Carli Lourens in Johannesburg. Editor: Will Kennedy, Ang Bee
Lin.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Winnie Zhu in Shanghai at +86-21-5695-9460 or
wz...@bloomberg.net;
Alistair Holloway in London at +44-20-7330-7780 or
ahollow...@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: August 24, 2009 08:31 EDT
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
From: milis...@live.com
Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2009 20:26:58 +0700
Subject: [ob] Coal
Ini saya dapet dari warung sebelah, saya coba buka bloomberg ga bisa...
Coal Sector--Bloomberg News 24 Agustus
Diberitakan Cina akan menghentikan import batubara, sebagai
penggantinya Cina akan membuka kembali tambang-tambang batubara yg
sempat ditutup akibat krisis global tahun lalu. Dgn diterapkannya
sistem keselamatan tambang batubara yg lebih baik, diperkirakan Cina
akan mampu meningkatkan produksi hingga 150 juta ton.
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