Berarti sampeyan lg bulish donk boss Hmin.. Secara breakout beli lagi gitu logh..wkwkwk..
//bb --WE are not afraid-- On 8/27/09, Cougar Boy <boysngi...@gmail.com> wrote: > Tergantung definisi bearish itu apa ?? > Kalau ditanya apakah saya mau invest di reksadana sekarang : TIDAK > Apakah masih invest di saham : IYA > Buy On Weekness : Reduce > Breakout : Ditambah > > So....saya bearish atau bullish ?? > > On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 6:04 AM, <anru.s...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> >> >> >> Pak Hmin, Pak Oentoeng, Elaine masih bearish? Any one else that agree with >> Dr. Doom Roubini? >> >> Sent from my BlackBerry® >> powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT >> >> ------------------------------ >> *From*: "victor_sperandeo" >> *Date*: Wed, 26 Aug 2009 09:55:48 -0000 >> *To*: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> >> *Subject*: [ob] Applying Roubini Wisdom to Stocks Means Missing Out >> >> >> >> Applying Roubini Wisdom to Stocks Means Missing Out (Update2) >> >> By Whitney Kisling >> >> Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Making money on the thinking of Nouriel Roubini >> isn't what it used to be. >> >> The New York University professor, who in 2006 foretold the worst >> financial >> unraveling since the Great Depression, has yet to say the economy is worth >> investing in again. "There is a big risk of a double-dip recession," wrote >> Roubini, also known as Dr. Doom, in his column in the Financial Times this >> week. >> >> Anyone attempting to apply Roubini's wisdom to stocks may be forgiven for >> missing the biggest rally since the 1930s as the Standard & Poor's 500 >> Index >> climbed 52 percent in six months. While Roubini said in March the advance >> was a "dead-cat bounce," that it may "fizzle" in May and warned in July >> that >> the economy's "not out of the woods," the MSCI World Index was posting a >> 58 >> percent gain, the largest since it began in 1970. >> >> "We're looking at a bull cycle in phase one," Laszlo Birinyi said in a >> telephone interview yesterday. Birinyi was the top-ranked Dow Jones >> Industrial Average forecaster for most of the 1990s on PBS's "Wall Street >> Week with Louis Rukeyser." "No one wants to come out and say, `This is a >> bull market.' Everyone's just dancing around the term," he said. >> >> The S&P 500 added 14 percent since Westport, Connecticut- based Birinyi >> Associates Inc., which manages $350 million, said on May 20 that a bull >> market had begun, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Roubini, who >> forecast in October 2008 that the U.S. was in a recession that would last >> 24 >> months, said on March 9 that the index might fall back to 600. It has >> risen >> to 1,028 since then. >> >> $4 Trillion Gained >> >> Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.3 percent as of 8:50 a.m. in London today, >> indicating the gauge may rise for the sixth time in seven days. The MSCI >> World Index climbed 0.2 percent. >> >> About $4 trillion has been restored to U.S. equity markets since March >> following better-than-forecast corporate profits and signs of an improving >> economy. More than 72 percent of the S&P 500's companies beat analysts' >> average estimates for second- quarter earnings, matching the highest >> proportion since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1993. The Conference >> Board's index of leading economic indicators has risen four consecutive >> months. >> >> Roubini's July 2006 warning about the financial crisis protected investors >> from losses in the S&P 500's worst annual tumble in seven decades. He also >> correctly warned investors to avoid stocks following the steepest advances >> in 2008. >> >> On Dec. 12, he said U.S. stocks might fall 20 percent after the S&P 500 >> gained 17 percent in three weeks. The index lost 23 percent through March >> 9, >> 2009. During an 18 percent jump in the index between Oct. 27 and Nov. 4, >> Roubini warned the S&P 500 might reverse course and lose 30 percent. It >> dropped 28 percent through March. >> >> `Understand the Market' >> >> He may have missed this year's bull market because Roubini isn't focused >> on >> stocks, according to Birinyi. >> >> Roubini has "done a very good job on the economy," Birinyi said in an >> interview Aug. 24. "Our approach is to try to understand the market and >> not >> try to do much more than that." >> >> Jonathan D. Goldberg, a New York-based spokesman for Roubini, said he >> wasn't available to comment because he's on vacation. >> >> Roubini, 51, wrote this week in the Financial Times that the economy may >> worsen again even after it stops shrinking this year. The global >> contraction >> will bottom in the second half of 2009, and the recession in the U.S. >> won't >> be "formally over" before the end of the year, he said. >> >> `Fizzle Out' >> >> The forecast was a reiteration of Roubini's call for an 18- to 24-month >> contraction that he made in October 2008. The recession began in December >> 2007, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business >> Cycle >> Dating Committee. >> >> Roubini told Bloomberg Television on May 13 that the stock market's rally >> "might fizzle out," citing expectations for weak growth in earnings. On >> March 9, he said it was "highly likely" the S&P 500 would fall to 600 or >> below because of plunging profits, an accelerating contraction in the >> global >> economy and a deteriorating outlook for banks. >> >> The index reached a 12-year low of 676.53 that day and has since climbed >> for almost six months. Reports on industrial production, housing starts >> and >> car sales, along with comments from the Federal Reserve that the economy >> is >> "leveling out," helped boost equities in the world's largest economy. >> >> In July 2006, Roubini predicted the financial crisis that led to $1.6 >> trillion in credit-related losses and writedowns. He forecast a >> "catastrophic" meltdown in February 2008, leading to the bankruptcy of >> large >> banks with mortgage holdings and a "sharp drop" in equities. >> >> Bear Stearns, Lehman >> >> Since then, Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. were taken over, >> American International Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. required government >> bailouts and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for the world's biggest >> bankruptcy. All the companies were based in New York. >> >> Birinyi, 65, who spent a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers >> Inc. before founding Birinyi Associates in 1989, said on May 20 that the >> S&P >> 500 may reach 1,700 by 2011, shifting from his April 13 call that the >> market >> had risen too much "by almost every measure." In October 2007, he told >> investors to avoid bank stocks, saying bad loans and lower revenue from >> underwriting would damp earnings. The S&P 500 Financials Index then >> plunged >> 82 percent through March 6, 2009. >> >> "Both of them just have a pretty deep understanding of the history of >> economic and business cycles," said Eric Teal, who oversees $5 billion as >> chief investment officer at First Citizens Bank in Raleigh, North >> Carolina. >> "Roubini has just had more of an academic background, whereas Birinyi has >> been much more in the spotlight managing money and working in capital >> markets." >> >> Growth Forecasts >> >> The U.S. economy has contracted four straight quarters. It will expand 2.2 >> percent during the third quarter and 2 percent in the fourth, before >> growing >> 2.3 percent in 2010, according to the median estimate of economists >> surveyed >> by Bloomberg News. >> >> Roubini, who received a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University in >> 1988, >> was a member of Yale University's faculty until joining NYU in 1995. He >> started his consulting firm, Roubini Global Economics LLC, in 2004, >> providing subscribers access to written and broadcast commentary and >> archived data. The firm's 1,300 institutional clients include asset >> managers >> and hedge funds, as well as investment banks and universities. Roubini >> doesn't invest any money on behalf of customers. >> >> "There's a lot more weight behind pundits who put their money where their >> mouth is," said Jack Ablin, who oversees $60 billion as chief investment >> officer of Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "Where I get up and pay >> attention >> is when I see someone who's been bearish go bullish." >> >> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, >> T Halim <tedha...@...> wrote: >> > >> > Bad news: >> > Noriel Roubini aka Dr Doom not yet becoming a convert Dr Boom: >> > He warns 12 hours ago: >> > >> > >> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6080523/Nouriel-Roubini-warns-threat-of-double-dip-recession-is-rising.html >> > >> > >> > Nouriel Roubini warns threat of double-dip recession is rising >> > The man credited as the prophet of the financial crisis has warned of >> > the >> growing threat of a global, double-dip recession, where the economy >> briefly >> recovers before slipping back into contraction. >> > ( klik linknya klo mo baca lengkap) >> > >> >> >> > -- Sent from my mobile device
