Terima kasih Kang....
On Thu, 2009-09-24 at 20:59 +0700, Bagus Putra Perdana wrote:
>
> kemungkinan iya pak. blon akan ke-reflect di laporan H1. kalo jadi di
> proposed dan dinyatakan wajar maka deal ini baru akan kita lihat
> jelasnya di laporan Q3 ato malah di annual 09 kalo finalisasinya
> dilakukan setelah bulan september.
>
> things about bakrie group, talkin bout their marvelous acrobatic
> maneuver, it'd been always a slight twist to judge whether they were
> boldly brilliant or uncarefully sloppy with their moves.
>
> there is some element of strategical decision on the deal if the money
> would be used properly ;
>
> I.E.
>
> Increasing A Production Level is One Thing, Selling it at a good price
> is another, by making a partnering deal with CIC. they could use some
> doors to increase penetration to China Proxy, a major coal consumer
> these days and on the future.
>
> at a rough elaboration, i can picture some good moves to the usage of
> 1.9 Bn to these kind of moves.
>
> * 1.9 Bn Cash Receipt. - 240 Mn Annual Payment
>
> Spend Some 500-700 Mn For Fixed Assets Spending on coal such as port
> extension and heavyweight equipment.
>
> another 500-600 Mn spend on fieldworks related to ensure Contractors
> would be able to meet the expansion production level delivered on
> target.
>
> some 700-800 Mn would be sitting on Riskless Investment that Yield
> some 6-8 % and would be steadily prepared for payment of the interest
> debt coupon of 250 Mn P/A (only for meeting the coupon payment
> liabilities), (of course they can use some part of it at some
> investment yielding even more than 12 % but that wont be Riskless that
> would be Reckless.)
>
> there will be 4 Years before the 1st tranche principal payment of 600
> Mn part of the 1.9 Bio. assuming the coupon is secured by those 700Mn
> reserves.
>
> They have to ensure the 1.2 Bio Spending On Production Related assets
> could be executed to enhance production level to atleast 100 Mn Tonne
> Production P/A before the 4 years time period come.
>
> If They Can do that, they would later Re-Sell Their Equities (or
> having their debt converted to equities) at a larger value from today.
> hence they will be able to atleast meet the principal payment for the
> 1st tranche of the debt.
>
> But That Can Only Happen IF THEY REALLY SPEND THE 1.9 BIO For Coal
> Production Related Action and deliver it with a good timeliness.
>
> that is only my rough mind guessin. too bad we public shareholders
> cant be rest assured the management would do so. things would be awful
> if management use the money for another reckless acquisition or
> market-price related action.
>
> Public Shareholders should have reliable controllers on the board to
> ensure decision would always be taken on shareholders best intersets
> behalf.
>
> just my 2 cents.
>
>
> On Thu, Sep 24, 2009 at 7:27 PM, Ferry <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Kang,
>
> Ini harusnya masuk ke lap-keu BUMI Sep 09 kan?
>
> Thanks,
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, 2009-09-24 at 17:59 +0700, Bagus Putra Perdana wrote:
> >
> > False Logic Brother. Liabilities itu bagian dari Aset jg.
> Liabilities
> > nambah maka Aset jg nambah, 1.9 Bio USD ini akan
> bertransformasi dr
> > bentuk kas ke modal kerja atau ke fixed asset atau ke
> akuisisi non
> > hard-assets yg menambah intangibles.
> >
> > unik juga sebenernya manuver ini, sayang belon ada detail yg
> dikasih
> > ke Publik. Sitting and existing credit fascilities yg
> dipegang BUMI
> > saat ini rata2 LIBOR + 2,5 - 3.5 %. clearly pergantian ke 12
> % coupon
> > gak akan banyak restrukturisasi keuangan BUMI. paling enggak
> dr sisi
> > profitabilitas.
> >
> > Buat TATA gak akan ada masalah sih krn mereka masuk lewat
> KPC dan
> > Arutminnya, sementara CIC kasih debt ke BUMI. buat exisiting
> > shareholder harusnya ada keterangan yg dikasih dulu krn 1.9
> Bio USD
> > ini jumlahnya material baik dr sisi balance dan P & L. ini
> akan makan
> > Earning Before Taxes yg jadi jatah pemegang ekuitas,
> lagipula biasanya
> > kreditur selalu maen aman dan minta jaminan, fasilitas
> credit suisse
> > dulu minta jaminannya aset terlancar dari BUMI yaitu Piutang
> Usaha
> > BUMI.
> >
> > Aset BUMI jadi terkesan rada artificial, Kas dan Aset akan
> meningkat
> > di akhir tahun signifikan, tapi datangnya mostly dari debt
> addition yg
> > tranche pembayaran pokoknya 4-6 tahun dr skrg.
> >
> > Interest Expense pada tahun keuangan 2008 adalah 43 Juta USD
> (Net stlh
> > Interest Paid Dari Akun kas Bank) dgn total outstanding debt
> sekitar
> > 1,3 Bio USD, sebagian debt baru masuk di semester akhir sih.
> tapi
> > acuan dr q1 09 aja beban bunga sekitar 21 Juta dari
> outstanding 1,3
> > Bio kalo di annualized kira2 100 Juta USD untuk 1,3 Bio.
> clearly below
> > 12 % interest Coupon payment. so where goes the
> Restructuring Part of
> > the deal?.
> >
> >
> > 1,9 Bio Is A Huge Amount, Damocles Sword Must Be Placed On
> BUMI's
> > board management Office.
> >
> > if they can use it properly, it'd surely unleash some good
> story.
> >
> > come to think of it, wont be such easy tasks to do so.
> >
> > 12 % Cost of 1.9 Bio equal 230 Mn P/A, applying Operating
> Margin Of 35
> > %, they needed to booked a minimum extra 650 Mn Revenue To
> Neutralized
> > the effect of the debt payment to the shareholders
> bottom-line.
> >
> > At Current Coal Price outlook, a 650 Mn extra Revenue would
> be a
> > roughly equal to minimumm addition 8-9 Mn Tonne P/A
> Production starts
> > from 1st coupon payment schedule
> >
> > Thats Quite ThroatGasping. Or Perhaps only this kind of
> burden on
> > Management's weigh could push the management go faster on
> > production-addition related decision?!. surely put more
> pressure on
> > it. They SHOULD mainly use the Cash For Production related
> Decision.
> >
> > If They Can Assure Us Its Going to be used for Good ROIC
> generator, it
> > would be a mind relievin. surely.
> >
> > Public Shareholder Should Placed An Officer in the
> management to
> > ensured this would be done properly.
> >
> > if not, hefty consequences, BUMI's Financial quality would
> be
> > deteriorating and cash burn will likely to shows upcoming
> years
> >
> >
> > what do u say El? this CIC Inception? Pro or Cons?
> >
> > i wish they'll use the money not for another acquisitions
> and
> > market-related actions...
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > On Thu, Sep 24, 2009 at 9:09 AM, Peter Alimin
> <milis...@live.com>
> > wrote:
> >
> >
> > ini ada analisa dari warung sebelah, cmiiw..
> >
> > Warrant Bumi yang dipegang CIC = U$ 1,9 Milliar X Rp.
> 10.000,-
> > = Rp. 19.000.000.000.000,-.
> > Pada harga Executeable Share BUMI-W Rp. 4.000,- yang
> dipegang
> > harus ada underlying share sebanyak = 4.750.000.000 Lembar
> > atau sebanyak 24% dari Total saham BUMI yang ada sekarang
> ini=
> > 20.000.000.000 lembar
> > Kalau BUMI belum punya Treasury Stock sebanyak 4.750.000.000
> > lembar pada saat akan dieksekusi oleh CIC dan baru akan
> > menerbitkan saham baru sebanyak 4.750.000.000 lembar maka
> > pemegang saham BUMI lama saat itu nilainya bakal TERDILUSI
> > sebesar +/- 25%
> >
> > Mr. Dillep. apakah BUMI sudah punya saham Treasury sebagai
> > underlying warrant CIC ??? I DON'T KNOW !!!!
> >
> > Bunga yang harus dibayar untuk HUTANG ini 19% X Rp.
> > 19.000.000.000.000,- = Rp. 3.610.000.000.000,-/tahun dibagi
> > jumlah saham 20.000.000.000 lembar equivalen Rp. 180,5/
> saham
> >
> > 1Q09 BUMI :
> >
> > Total Asset = US$ 5,5 M
> >
> > Total Kewajiban = US$ 3,4 M + Hutang dari CIC China = US$
> 1,9
> > M , sekarang jadi = US$ 5,3 M
> >
> > Hanya ada sisa nilai sebesar US$ 0,2 M atau US$ 200 Juta
> dari
> > Asset BUMI untuk 20 M lembar pemegang saham sekarang ini
> atau
> > senilai cuma RP. 100,- /Lembar saham
> >
> >
> > ??
> >
> >
> >
> > __________________________________________________________
> > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> > From: milis...@live.com
> > Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:14:20 +0700
> > Subject: [ob] bumi
> >
> >
> > PT Bumi Resources Tbk (“Bumi”) announced that China
> Investment
> > Corporation (“CIC”) has invested US$1.9 billion in Bumi in
> the
> > form of a debt-like instrument. The US$1.9 billion
> > investment consists of US$600 million repayable in year 4,
> US
> > $600 million in year 5, and remaining US$700 million in year
> > 6. The investment attracts a 12% annual cash coupon with a
> > total IRR of 19%, the balance payable at the time of final
> > maturities. The funds will be used for debt restructuring
> > and capital expenditure. “We are honored by this historic
> > and transformational investment by CIC, the leading
> sovereign
> > fund in the world. The investment will enable Bumi to
> > implement its growth strategies quickly and provide a stable
> > capital structure. More importantly, the partnership creates
> > the platform for CIC and Bumi to pursue investment
> > opportunities jointly”, remarked Ari Hudaya, President
> > Director and CEO of Bumi, one of the leading natural
> resources
> > companies in Asia with world-class coal assets. CIC,
> > wholly-owned by the People’s Republic of China, is one of
> the
> > largest and reputable investment institutions in the world.
> > Bumi is Indonesia's largest producer and one of the world’s
> > largest exporter of thermal coal with strong practices in
> > community development, corporate social responsibility
> > and corporate governance. PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
> > acted as arranger and financial advisor, and Jones Day acted
> > as legal advisor to Bumi. Deutsche Bank and China
> > International Capital Corporation (CICC) acted as financial
> > advisors and Davis Polk & Wardwell acted as legal advisor to
> > CIC in this transaction. - just announced 2 hours ago,,,
> >
> > CMIIW
> >
> >
> >
> > __________________________________________________________
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>
> > --
> > Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an
> approximation to
> > the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know
> it. In
> > fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation,
> because
> > we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore,
> things
> > must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely,
> to be
> > corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment.
> Experiment is
> > the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to
> the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In
> fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because
> we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things
> must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be
> corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is
> the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
>
>
>
>
