Wuah...itu sih berita lama. CP deh.
Bettina Tan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: In addition, nickel futures in
LME also down overnight with the expectation for lower demand from China who's
economic has set to cooling down.
On 4/11/07, Bettina Tan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Nice obs, however u used
to nice assumption. In my opinion INCO Q1 will be much lower than you have
predicted, that's why a mild selling force is seen at 60000 level.
On 4/11/07, gerus2000 <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: Dear all,
Mumpung inco lagi adem ayem, ini tebak gw mengenai Q1 07 Inco.
Hasil ubrek-ubrek FY06 Inco , Q306, dan data nickel price di LME,
Asumsi :
- Produksi seperti tahun lalu : 76100 ton matte nickel
- Revenue : 30.270 /ton => 79% dari LME 3 month price jan-mar.
Ngikutin FY06, inco reve = 18.350/ton, LME 3 month ave = 23.227/ton
- Cogs : 8500/ton, meningkat dari data FY06 = 7.817 /ton
- tax bracket 30%
Kira-kira gini nih Q107 (dalam `000 USD):
Rev : 575,868
cogs : -161,713
gross prof : 414,155
SGA cost : -10,000
ebitda : 404,155
itdaothers : 0 => FY06 malah positif
ebt : 404,155
tax : -121,247
net profit : 282,909
eps : 0.2847
dengan kurs 9.100 , maka eps = Rp 2.591
Annualize : Rp : 10.634
Kalau lihat harga awal jan 06 compare to eps 06, maka INCO dijual
dengan PER sekitar 7.
So harga wajarnya sekitar Rp 70.000,
harga sekarang pas Rp 60.000. jadi masih bisa akumulasi.
Apalagi ini nih yang dahsyat.. devidennya 0.5 dolar, sekitar
4.500
.hmmmmm
Regards
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