Sebenernya gak penting banget apa semangka, apa duren, apa kenari. yang penting comfort. gitu lho... :D
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Joe Martin" <milis.s4...@...> wrote: > > Biji kenari kayanya.... Hehe... > > *kaboerrrrrr > -----Original Message----- > From: Vincent Chase <chase.vinc...@...> > Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:10:20 > To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> > Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi > > biji duren apa biji semangka? > > --- On Wed, 10/21/09, troyan <troyan...@...> wrote: > > From: troyan <troyan...@...> > Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 7:09 AM > > > > > > >  > > > > > > Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik > lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase <chase.vincent@ ...> > wrote: > > > > > > 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! > > > > > > --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! <elainesui83@ ...> wrote: > > > > > > From: It's Elaine! <elainesui83@ ...> > > > Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi > > > To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com > > > Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > à> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think so. Selling up to 2800? > > > > > > On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan <troyan...@yahoo. com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli > > BUMI > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "It's Elaine!" <elainesui83@ ...> > > wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya <mysanjaya.hd@ ...> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > àà------------ --------- --------- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *From: *"Sonny John" <sonny.john@ ..> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on > > > > > > > > Bumi and Adaro. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *Stock ààààààààààààà> > > > GS Rating àààààààCurrent Px ààà* > > > > > > > > *12 Month Target Px àà* àààà* * > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ) àààà**Sell àààà> > > > àààààà**Idr **2,850 > > > > > > > > **Idr **2,300 ààà* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *Adaro (ADRO.IJ) àààà**Buy ààààà> > > > ààààà**Idr **1,510 ààà** > > > > > > > > Idr **2,800* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > * àààààààà* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *Key Summary Points:-* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ÷ ààà* **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil > > > > prices > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% > > > > correlated > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and > > > > US$110/bbl, > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 24, 2009, "Global: Energy: Oilââ¬"Recovery and relapse, v2"). > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ÷ ààà* **No major supply destruction, some projects > > > > nearing completion* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. > > > > Australia's > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in > > > > early > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is > > > > likely > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ÷ ààà* **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with > > > > neutral stance* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply > > > > availability > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently > > > > > > > > thermal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below > > > > > > > > the > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an > > > > annual > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in > > > > > > > > 2009E > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral > > > > > > > > stance. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ÷ ààà* **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we > > > > rate > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt > > > > > > > > load > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at > > > > Neutral. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ÷ ààà* **Risks* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) > > > > causing > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > coal prices to spike or China coal demand being stronger than we expect; > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > downside risks include China's small mines restarting operations. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > àà- *Latest Research* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > à<<ASEAN Metals & Mining Coal 21 OCt.pdf>> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Goldman, Sachs & Co. 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