Emiten lain paling 1-2 berita sebulan, kalau BUMI bisa belasan per bulan, jajjajajajjaja
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, boyz® <m457...@...> wrote: > > Tebakan ane sih kalo besok BUMI open langsung diatas buaya biru, tutup nya > dibawah buaya biru. > Belum di backtest sih, makanya ane bilang tebakan :p > > Salam, <<< you know lah... :) > > > > 2009/11/18 JT⢠<jsxtra...@...> > > > Ikut nimbrung ahh..., ngomong2 news riset..., kata si Bill, market itu > > bergerak karena respond trader thd new incoming informasi/news (chaos). Nah > > Balance Line biru adalah posisi dimana harga berada jika tidak ada new > > incoming info...., Jadi dari pada liat riset yg bertolak belakan antara satu > > dgn lainnya dan bikin puyeng, mendiingan kite liat aja kelakuan si > > Alligator, kalo ada info, harga akan bergerak menjauh dari balance line > > biru..., kalau infonya bagus, menjauh keatas, kalo jelek, menjauh > > kebawah..... Hehehe... > > > > JT > > > > www.jsxtrader.com > > > > â Trade By Rules, Not HOPE â > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: "billy_budiman92" <billybudima...@...> > > Date: Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:46:55 > > To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> > > Subject: [ob] Re: ML: [BUMI] We cut our PO by 7% to Rp2,700 > > > > Skrg masalahnya terlalu banyak news riset dari berbagai sekuritas yang > > beda-beda, ada yang 3800, 1100, dll > > > > Dan mereka bisa dibilang juga selalu cepat berubah, dengan alasan news dari > > BUMI juga banyak dan berganti-ganti > > > > Ini yang bisa bikin bingung boss, kita gak tau aslinya BUMI itu gimana, > > news yang dateng kebanyakan dan jaraknya pendek2 > > > > So, it wise for us to see a chart, and chartnya memang masih uptend > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Joe Grunk <joe_grunk@> wrote: > > > > > > Anda agak klise Billy. Jangan begitulah, kalau punya barang. > > > > > > > > > > > > Newmont deal too confusing: Who bought what? > > > The > > > ownership split between the regional government and Multicapital for the > > 10% > > > stake > > > in Newmont Nusa Tenggara remains unclear. We do know from the media > > > the > > > ownership of Multicapital: Bakrie Capital, 95% stake; BUMI, 5%. But > > yesterday > > > the > > > local media reported that the US$391mn payment all transferred from > > > BUMIââ¬â¢s > > > account. > > > At this point, weââ¬â¢re not sure how to value BUMIââ¬â¢s stake in > > > Newmont. > > > Earnings, PO > > > cut further on higher debt > > > To > > > factor in the recent debt issuance of US$600mn (US$300mn from CS end-Oct > > > and > > > recent US$300mn bond), we cut our earnings further by 7% for 2010E and > > > 11% for > > > 2011E. We cut our PO > > > by 7% to Rp2,700, implying 17x 2010E P/E. We > > > continue > > > to question BUMIââ¬â¢s rationale to increase its debt, while in the > > meantime > > > the > > > long-term value from the newly acquired assets is difficult to assess > > looking > > > at > > > how the > > > Newmont acquisition was done. > > > BHPââ¬â¢s Maruwai ââ¬" not yet a done deal > > > for BUMI > > > We > > > think investors are holding BUMI shares in anticipation that it will get > > > BHPââ¬â¢s > > > Maruwai > > > coal project. But besides BUMI, Adaro is also interested. Moreover, we > > > think > > > Adaro has geared up enough in anticipation for this acquisition while we > > see > > > BUMI > > > requiring more debt. Next big ticket items for BUMI that we can think of > > are > > > 14% > > > stake in Newmont and an estimated capex of US$1bn required for its coal > > > mine > > > expansion. > > > Bullish on coal price; focus on SAR and Adaro > > > We > > > continue to be bullish on coal price, especially with the approach of > > > December. > > > To put things into context, while China demand is picking up because > > > of the > > > snow storm, Indonesia > > > reportedly had to cut supply 8.5% MoM on bad > > > weather. > > > But since there are too many moving parts in BUMI, we prefer SAR and > > > Adaro > > > on coal price. > > > SAR and ADRO liquidity improving > > > One of > > > BUMIââ¬â¢s selling points for investors who wanted exposure to > > > Indonesia > > coal > > > was its > > > liquidity. YTD, BUMIââ¬â¢s trading value has been roughly US$32mn, vs. > > > SARââ¬â¢s > > > US$22mn and ADROââ¬â¢s US$7mn. But in the last one month, we have seen > > > both SAR and ADRO improve to US$25mn and > > > US$22mn, respectively. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >________________________________ > > > Dari: billy_budiman92 <billybudiman20@> > > > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > > Terkirim: Rab, 18 November, 2009 17:58:43 > > > Judul: [ob] Merril Lynch : BUMI BUY ( TP : 2.700 ) > > > > > > BUMI: Broker ML Rekomendasi Buy, PO 2.700 > > > Broker ML merekomendasikan rating BUY dengan Price Objective (PO) > > Rp2.700/saham terkait: > > > * Kesepakatan Newmont terlalu membingungkan. Who bought what? > > > Kepemilikan dibagi antara pemerintah daerah dan Multicapital untuk 10% > > saham NTT tetap tidak jelas. > > > Berdasarkan data dari Media, porsi kepemilikan Multicapital yakni Bakrie > > Capital, 95% saham > > > dan sisanya BUMI, 5%. Tetapi, kemarin media lokal melaporkan bahwa > > pembayaran sebesar > > > US $ 391 juta secara keseluruhan dibayar oleh BUMI. > > > Pada titik tersebut, ML tidak yakin berapa banyak nilai saham BUMI di > > Newmont > > > * ML memangkas earning sebanyak 7% di 2010E dan 11% di 2011E, karena > > adanya penerbitan utang baru > > > US$600 juta (US$300 juta dari CS hingga akhir Oktober dan obligasi > > baru-baru ini US$300 juta) > > > * ML memangkas PO nya sebanyak 7% jadi Rp2700, mengimpilkasikan 17x 2010E > > P/E > > > * Maruwai belum menjadi milik BUMI. > > > ML berpandangan bahwa investor tetap memegang saham BUMI untuk > > mengantisipasi > > > pembelian Maruwai oleh BUMI, meski selain BUMI, ADRO juga tertarik. > > Terlebih ML melihat > > > ADRO sudah siap dari segi finansial sedangkan BUMI masih harus mencari > > pinjaman. > > > salah satu target lainnya menurut ML adalah 14% saham Newmont dan capex > > senilai US$1 miliar > > > untuk ekspansi tambangnya > > > * Bullish untuk harga Batubara, fokus pada SAR dan ADRO > > > * Likuiditas SAR dan ADRO meningkat > > > YTD, nilai perdagangan BUMI telah capai sekitar $32 juta vs SAR's US$22 > > juta dan ADRO US$7 juta. > > > Namun dalam satu bulan terakhir, nilai perdagangan SAR dan ADRO naik > > masing-masing jadi > > > US $ 25 juta dan US $ 22 juta. > > > > > > Ya, masa cuma 75 perak :p, tinggal DB dink yang belum upgrade2 :p > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > > > + + > > > + + + + + > > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > > + + + + + > > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Akses email lebih cepat. Yahoo! menyarankan Anda meng-upgrade > > browser ke Internet Explorer 8 baru yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! Dapatkan > > di sini! > > > http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > + + > > + + + + + > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > + + + + + > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > + + > > + + + + + > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > + + + + + > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > >
