Kalau ke 900, gimana mau loncat? Wakakakak --- On Fri, 11/27/09, dario kurniawan <darioamran1...@yahoo.co.id> wrote:
> From: dario kurniawan <darioamran1...@yahoo.co.id> > Subject: Bls: [ob] Dubai Means Emerging Markets ‘Correction’ to Mobius > (Update2) > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Date: Friday, November 27, 2009, 8:57 PM > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Ambil > positifnya dari artikel tadi hehehe.. > > Stocks retreated in the U.S. and Asia, government bonds > jumped and credit-default swaps climbed after Dubai World > ---> > semua TA market global sebelum kejadian dubai emang udah > minta koreksi..koreksi dalem > lebih cepat lebih baik...ini koreksi > besar bukan crash kata siapa (lupa) yg bilang di milis ini > sebelumnya.. gw setuju dgn dia > > “This may be the trigger to allow for the market to take a rest and pull > back,” Mobius said in a Bloomberg--- --> koreksi biar > bisa loncat lebih tinggi lagi... > > hehehe..bentaran > lagi ada counter dari WB nih.....Mobius vs WB ?? > > > > > > > > Dario Amran > > --- Pada Sab, 28/11/09, AB <asepbuh...@yahoo. > com> menulis: > > Dari: AB <asepbuh...@yahoo. com> > Judul: [ob] Dubai Means Emerging Markets ‘Correction’ > to Mobius (Update2) > Kepada: "obrolan-bandar" <obrolan-bandar@ > yahoogroups. com> > Tanggal: Sabtu, 28 November, 2009, 8:58 AM > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > si mobius ama roubini ngomong apa sih? > > om DE tolong terjemahin lagi yak. > > > > > > > > Dubai Means Emerging Markets ‘Correction’ to Mobius > (Update2) > > Share Business ExchangeTwitterFace book| Email | Print | A > A A > > By Zeb Eckert, Reinie Booysen and Rita Nazareth > > Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai’s attempt to reschedule debt > may spur a “correction” in emerging markets, according > to Mark Mobius, while the global slump in equities shows > government spending alone won’t protect financial markets, > Arnab Das of Roubini Global Economics said. > > Mobius, who oversees about $25 billion of developing-nation > assets as chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said > a 20 percent drop for shares is “quite possible.” Stock > volatility and risk aversion may jump as countries and > companies default on loans, according to Das, the head of > market research and strategy at RGE, the advisory firm > founded by Nouriel Roubini. > > Stocks retreated in the U.S. and Asia, government bonds > jumped and credit-default swaps climbed after Dubai World, > the government investment company burdened by $59 billion of > liabilities, sought to delay repayment of debt. The MSCI > Emerging Markets Index has slumped 3.9 percent in the past > two days after more than doubling from its 2009 low in > March. > > “This may be the trigger to allow for the market to take > a rest and pull back,” Mobius said in a Bloomberg > Television interview by phone from Hanoi. “I felt that > there would be a significant correction in what is an > ongoing bull market,” he said. “If Dubai has to default, > that could start a wave of defaults in other areas.” > > ‘Sweet Spot’ > > MSCI’s gauge of emerging nations has advanced 66 percent > this year, more than double the gain in developed markets, > as a rally in commodities buoyed stocks from Brazil to > Russia and economists estimated that China was the only > economy of the world’s 10 largest to expand in 2009. > > Mobius said emerging market stocks were in a “sweet > spot” in September 2006, before MSCI’s index of emerging > countries surged 71 percent. He failed to predict the > retreat that began in October 2007 and told Bloomberg radio > in August 2008 that a 28 percent decline in the index was > “overdone.” The measure lost more than half its value in > the next two months, falling to a four-year low on Oct. 27, > 2008. > > The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries has added 24 > percent this year, rebounding from its biggest annual > decline on record as the Federal Reserve spent, lent or > guaranteed $11.6 trillion and held interest rates near zero > to unlock credit markets and end the first simultaneous > recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II. > > > ‘Risk Aversion’ > > Dubai, which borrowed $80 billion in a four-year > construction boom to transform its economy into a tourism > and financial hub, suffered the world’s steepest property > slump in the recession. Home prices fell 50 percent from > their 2008 peak, according to Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank > AG. > > “We’re bound to see a rise in risk aversion,” Das, > who is based in London, said in a telephone interview > yesterday. “The Dubai situation signifies that although > the major central banks around the world have stabilized the > financial system, they can’t make all the excesses simply > disappear. We still have to work out those balance-sheet > stresses. The recovery is proceeding, but significant > challenges still lie ahead.” > > Das, the former head of emerging-markets strategy at > Dresdner Kleinwort, joined RGE last month to lead a team > that advises on allocations in stocks, bonds, interest-rate > products, commodities and currencies in developed and > emerging markets. > > Roubini’s Calls > > Roubini, an economics professor at New York University and > chairman of RGE, predicted the financial crisis that spurred > $1.7 trillion in credit losses and asset writedowns at > global financial companies. Banks have raised $1.5 trillion > since 2007 to combat the credit crisis, data compiled by > Bloomberg show. > > “In some countries and sectors, debtors will be able to > get by because government intervention has made it easier > for them to refinance,” said Das. “In other places, > excessively leveraged debtors, who always get access to too > much credit during a boom, cannot roll over their debt and > will default.” > > Roubini’s 2006 warning about the financial crisis helped > shield clients from the worst slump in global equities since > at least 1988. He said in March that the stock rally that > began that month was a “dead-cat bounce” and that it may > “fizzle” in May. The MSCI World has rallied 66 percent > since March 9, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has > climbed 61 percent in the steepest rally since the Great > Depression. > > ‘Another Hit’ to Banks > > “It’s very clear there will be another hit to some > banks, banks around the world, some of which have been more > heavily insulated from the crisis,” Das told Bloomberg > Television. “It doesn’t look like the hit is going to be > big enough to bring them down, but it is going to be a > problem.” > > The S&P 500 dropped 1.7 percent to 1,091.49 at 1 p.m. > in New York today after U.S. markets were closed for the > Thanksgiving holiday yesterday. > > Emerging-market stocks were today’s biggest losers. South > Korea’s Kospi index fell 4.7 percent, the steepest drop > since January. Samsung Engineering Co. tumbled 9.8 percent, > leading declines among construction stocks on concern orders > may slow in the United Arab Emirates, South Korean > builders’ biggest overseas market. > > The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.8 percent. The > gauge has still surged 107 percent since Oct. 27, 2008. > > “A 20 percent correction is not unusual in such a bull > market, so that’s quite possible and we should be ready > for that,” Mobius said. “There’s no way that anyone > can specifically predict exactly when and to what extent, > but certainly there will be corrections along the way.” > > ‘Avalanche’ > > The retreat in emerging markets may be compounded by > Vietnam’s currency devaluation and an “avalanche” of > initial share sales, Mobius said. > > The State Bank of Vietnam devalued its currency this week > and raised interest rates to combat inflation and narrow the > trade deficit. Vietnam’s benchmark stock gauge plunged 12 > percent this week, the most since the period ended 0ctober > 2008. The VN Index rose 1.7 percent today, the first gain > since Nov. 19. Mobius said he’s “bullish on Vietnam, but > over the short and medium term we have to look very > carefully at what’s happening.” > > Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index rose 1.2 percent after > falling as much as 1.8 percent. The index tumbled 3.3 > percent yesterday, the biggest plunge since April. The > VStoxx Index, which gauges the cost of using options to > protect against declines in the Euro Stoxx 50, fell 6.6 > percent to 28.36 after surging 28 percent yesterday, the > biggest gain in a year. > > Volatility Gauge > > The VIX Index, which measures the cost of using options as > insurance against declines in the S&P 500 over the next > month, climbed 21 percent, the most since October 30, to > 24.74. The measure has dropped 38 percent this year after > surging last November to a record 80.86, a level almost four > times higher than its average over its two-decade history. > > The so-called correlation coefficient that measures how > closely markets rise and fall together reached the highest > level ever in June, with the S&P 500 and benchmark > measures for raw materials, developing-country equities and > hedge funds rallying in tandem, according to data compiled > by Bloomberg. Oil has jumped 71 percent this year and the > Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials climbed 19 > percent. > > “All this should magnify differentiation between riskier > and less risky asset classes and names, after a couple of > quarters in which correlations have risen sharply as market > participants put on risk pretty much across the board,” > Das said. “That will make it harder to make money simply > by riding the liquidity wave from central banks. People are > going to have to start focusing even more on the > fundamentals.” > > To contact the reporters on this story: Zeb Eckert in Hong > Kong at zecke...@bloomberg. net; > Reinie Booysen in Singapore at rbooy...@bloomberg. net; Rita Nazareth in > Sao Paulo at rnazar...@bloomberg .net. > > > Last Updated: November 27, 2009 16:49 EST > > > > Rgds > > > > AB > > > > Selalu bisa chat di profil jaringan, blog, atau situs web > pribadi! Yahoo! memungkinkan Anda selalu bisa chat melalui > Pingbox. Coba! http://id.messenger > .yahoo.com/ pingbox/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. > Rasakan bedanya sekarang! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
