Pak Herman ini Jenderal juga ya? kaya Jenderal Arto.Banyak ammo nya.....
Jam 11.16.24 tadi HEXA masih 2775.
Punten, apa lagi ya pak? BMTR boleh nggak Pak?
________________________________
From: M Herman <hermanlat...@yahoo.com>
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wed, December 9, 2009 11:16:24 AM
Subject: [ob] Daily CL...HEXA new coverage TP 4150
Good morning. There has been talk about big rallies in Jakartatoday as 11
public demonstrations are scheduled to mark the International Anti-Corruption
Day.
Interestingly, despite earlier remarks that today’s rallies against corruption
could potentially be hijacked by rogue elements, President SBY welcomes the
rally. The President further urged the public to celebrate today’s
International Anti-Corruption Day peacefully. Perhaps coincidental, the
President cancelled a planned visit to Makassar in South Sulawesito open the
52nd Nusantara Day today.
Perhaps more interesting is that President SBY confirmed yesterday that he will
allow the Anti Corruption Commission (KPK) to continue wiretapping
extraordinary crimes as part of his mission to combat corruption. President
SBY also said that he disagreed with any efforts to strip the KPK of its power
to prosecute which have come up in the deliberation of the pending corruption
court bill.
The attitudes toward corruption in Indonesiaare changing. KPK has very strong
public support. The press in Indonesiais one of the freest in Asia. Change
begins at the margin. Indonesiahas come very far, but anticorruption efforts
must continue.
The estimate on the number of marchers is varied from 40-100k. Some even
mentioned 300k (highly unlikely, I think). But one thing is sure to happen
today. We can expect Central and South Jakartato be mired in gridlock.
Jakartans have been told to leave home earlier. Rally schedules and plans are
widely distributed. No less than 13k officers would be deployed to make sure
that the rallies remain peaceful. Jakartadoes not need extra problems to
compound to its massive traffic problems. Average vehicle speed on roads is
already so slow at 20km/hour. Can’t get any slower…
Research Today: Hexindo, Excavating returns - Initiate with a BUY - Tp4,150
This is one of my high conviction pick in the small cap space (mkt cap
US$245). They are second biggest heavy equipment (Hitachi)distributo r in
Indonesia trading on on 6.3x 2010CL while churning over 40% ROE with a sweet 5%
divy yield. This compare to 13x 2010CL, 25% ROE for United Tractors. Their
revenue and operating profit has been growing at 33% and 52% CAGR over the past
five years
Hexa with a more focused business model with considerably higher earnings
growth arguably should not be trading at a discount to UT in this part of cycle
(a Sellers market here). Hexa is the dominate player in the super sized
excavators with 100%, not typo here, market share in the over 250 ton class
(Komatsu does not even have a product of this size). Coal miners continue to
upgrade (even Pama buy them) to these super sized excavators for operating
efficiency as their scale up their production. Bluesky for this stock will be
from infrastructure spending accounting for less than 20% of sales compare to
over 80% in this segment pre 1997. BUY!
Key takeaways:
* Demand for heavy equipment is set to accelerate over the coming years
as demand for power, particularly coal-fired, is booming. Chinaand Indiathermal
coal demand may expand by 700m tonnes in just five years, equal to current
global seaborne thermal-coal market
* The company sells 23% of its unit to mining sector, mostly coal
companies and contractors, while revenue from mining unit contributing to 67%
of total.
* Note that the company sold 54 large and giant equipments in Jan-Aug
vs. 28 units in 2008 and has further secured almost US$190m worth of contracts
to deliver another 64 units of equipments in 2010 order book period
* The company has successfully de-leveraged its balance sheet after
seeing its net gearing peaked at 144% as of Dec06, with net gearing as of Sep09
stood at 33%. With its strong cash flow generation, we expect Hexindo to be in
a net cash position in 2011.
* Stock trades at 6.3x 2010 PER and 4.3x 2010 EV/Ebitda, still below
its five years average historical valuations. Meanwhile, balance sheet and
return are better than they were over the past five years
DELTA DUNIA (DOID IJ) Conference call details
Conference Call with Delta Dunia Makmur management team
Date: Thursday,10 December 2009
Speakers: Patrick Walujo (Vice President Director), Thomas Husted (CFO),
Budikwanto Kuesar (Managing director BUMA)
Time: 8am - London
4pm – Singapore/Hong Kong/Kuala Lumpur/Manila/ Shanghai/ Taipei
3pm – Jakarta/Bangkok
Delta Dunia management team would discuss the latest progress post acquisition
of Bukit Makmur (Buma), Indonesia’s second-largest coal-mining contractor. With
a proven track record, long-term relationships with customers and low cost
base, Buma, in our view, could benefit from the growing demand for thermal
coal from both domestic and regional markets.
Please see attachment for calling details.
