Awas Kepeleset Mbah.., TITI DJ yeh... Positive ;
Capaian Accounting Profit ( Net Income ) Q3 09 diatas ekspektasi Konsensus dan sebagian besar analis asing ; Forecast Merril Lynch ( Daisy Suryo ) NI F-09 USD 387 Mn ( Bumi sudah post 94 % dr full year Forecast dia, ML kemungkinan Upgrade atau Re-iterate Buy ) Forecast Macquarie ( A Worthington, A Saputro ) NI F-09 USD 572 Mn ( Bumi post dibawah 75 % Full year forecast dia, ada kemungkinan downgrade ato kasih rating hold ) Forecast DBS Vickers ( Yusuf Ade Winoto CFA ) NI F-09 USD 442 Mn ( Bumi post 81 % Full Year Forecast, Inline ) Forecast Cimb GK ( Rania Rahmundita ) NI F-09 USD 433 Mn ( Bumi post result In-Line ) Forecast Citigroup ( Kim Kwie Sjamsudin CFA ) NI - F 09 392 Mn ( BUMI post 91 % dr full year kemungkinan akan diupgrade ) Negative : analis mungkin akan pilih menghighlight accounting profit, tp bbrp smart player bisa out karena cashflow BUMI jelek en rada jauh dr forecast analis2 ( or in my opinion, bbrp analis asing malah fooling themselves and their audience with their cashflow number ) FCF BUMI hingga Q3 09 adalah - 330 Mn USD sementara estimasi FCF Full year dari analis2 asing adalah ; Merril Lynch ( D. Suryo ) Full year FCF-09 F = 10 Mn USD Macquarie ( A worthington, A Saputro ) Full Year FCF-09 = - 285 Mn USD DBS Vickers ( Y. Ade Winoto CFA ) Full Year FCF-09 = - 274 Mn USD CIMB Gk ( Rania Rahmundita ) Full Year FCF-09 = - 833 Mn USD Citigroup ( Kim Kwie Sjamsudin CFA ) Full Year FCF-09 = 336 Mn USD. tinggal mana yg mo dijadiin komoditi, accounting profit atau economic profit. beberapa hal lain yg menjadi catatan dari Q3 09 BUMI adalah ; - Pendapatan tetap meski dengan volume produksi yang naik ( harga deal 2009 tidak banyak berubah ( atau turun ) dari kontrak 2008, efek kontrak jangka panjang carry-over dr 2008 ) - Kenaikan Pinjaman dari CIC belum masuk ke neraca, mungkin eksekusinya di Q4 - Pelunasan Dewa, Fajar Bumi dan Pendopo juga belun masuk neraca. Q4 could be worse as full effect dr transaksi di atas belun keliatan di report Q3. 3000?!.. Tough Call, I Must Say.. 2010/1/5 jsx_consultant <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id> > > > Hari ini giliran BUMI menuju BULAN... > > > -- Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
