Agreed...
________________________________
From: Eka Suwandana <esuwan...@gmail.com>
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Fri, February 19, 2010 10:33:52 PM
Subject: Re: [ob] Consumer Prices in U.S. Rise Less Than Anticipated
BULLISH ya! Tenang aja ini BULL bakal lama.
On Fri, Feb 19, 2010 at 9:56 PM, <bayu_kusuma_ wardhana@ yahoo.com> wrote:
>> Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of living in the U.S. rose in January less
>> than anticipated and a measure of prices excluding food and fuel fell for
>> the first time since 1982, indicating the recovery is showing few signs of
>> inflation.
>
>> The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent for a fifth straight month,
>> led by higher fuel costs, Labor Department figures showed today in
>> Washington. Excluding energy and food, the so-called core index unexpectedly
>> fell 0.1 percent, reflecting a drop in new-car prices, clothing and shelter.
>
>> Companies may have little success raising prices with unemployment projected
>> to end the year at 9.5 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell
>> after the report showed restrained inflation will allow Federal Reserve
>> policy makers to keep interest rates close to zero to help support the
>> recovery.
>
>> “The broader picture remains one of subdued inflation, and this gives the
>> Fed ample reason to stay on the sidelines until at least very late in the
>> year,” said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West
>> Chester, Pennsylvania, who forecast no change in the core index.
>
>> Economists forecast the consumer-price index would rise 0.3 percent in
>> January from a month earlier, according to the median of 78 projections in a
>> Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from no change to a gain of 0.6
>> percent.
>
>> The core index was forecast to rise 0.1 percent, according to the Bloomberg
>> survey. The decline in the core was the first since December 1982.
>
>> Treasuries, Stocks
>
>> Treasury prices rose, pushing down the yield on the 10-year note one basis
>> point to 3.79 percent at 8:42 a.m. in New York. Stock-index futures
>> maintained losses, with futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring
>> in March declining 0.4 percent to 1,100.7.
>
>> Energy costs jumped 2.8 percent in January, led by higher prices for fuel
>> oil and gasoline. The cost of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange
>> averaged $78.40 last month, up from $74.60 in December.
>
>> Gasoline prices increased 4.4 percent, the most since August. The cost at
>> the pump rose 10 cents to $2.71 a gallon on average in January, from $2.61
>> the previous month, according to AAA. The price has since retreated.
>
>> Compared with January 2009, the CPI rose 2.6 percent after climbing 2.7
>> percent the previous month. The year-over-year gains in the consumer price
>> index have been getting bigger as crude oil prices increase from an almost
>> five-year low in December 2008.
>
>> Food, Shelter
>
>> Food costs, which account for about 15 percent of the CPI, increased 0.2
>> percent in January, reflecting higher prices for dairy products, meat and
>> fruits and vegetables.
>
>> Shelter costs that include lodging away from home and rental properties fell
>> 0.5 percent. Owners-equivalent rent, one of the categories used to track
>> rental prices, fell 0.1 percent last month after no change.
>
>> New-car prices fell 0.5 percent in January, the most since August, and
>> apparel costs dropped 0.1 percent. Medical-care costs rose 0.5 percent in
>> January, the most in two years.
>
>> The Fed’s long-term forecast for its preferred measure of inflation, the
>> Commerce Department’s index tied to consumer spending and excluding food and
>> fuel, calls for gains in a range of 1.5 percent to 2 percent. That gauge,
>> which is typically lower than the CPI, was up 1.5 percent in the 12 months
>> ended in December.
>
>> ‘Subdued Inflation’
>
>> Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that the central bank expects
>> economic conditions, including “subdued inflation trends,” that may warrant
>> an “exceptionally low” benchmark interest rate “for an extended period.”
>
>> Central bank policy makers last month “agreed that underlying inflation
>> currently was subdued and was likely to remain so for some time,” according
>> to minutes of the Jan. 26- 27 meeting released this week.
>
>> Consumers in the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary survey, released
>> Feb. 12, said they expect an inflation rate of 2.8 percent over the next
>> five years. Those figures are tracked by Fed policy makers.
>
>> The CPI is the broadest of the three monthly price gauges from the Labor
>> Department because it includes goods and services. Reports this week showed
>> 1.4 percent gains in both the cost of imported goods and wholesale prices in
>> January. Both increases were more than anticipated.
>
>> Almost 60 percent of the CPI covers prices consumers pay for services
>> ranging from medical visits to airline fares and movie tickets. Airline
>> fares fell 2.5 percent in January, the most since February 2009.
>
>> Companies Reluctant
>
>> Even with higher production and material costs, U.S. companies are reluctant
>> to pass on the expenses to consumers. Wal-Mart, the world’s largest
>> retailer, reported fourth-quarter sales yesterday that trailed its
>> projection after cutting grocery and electronic prices.
>
>> The Bentonville, Arkansas-based company reduced the cost of laptop
>> computers, along with turkeys and cranberry sauce for holiday meals, to
>> attract shoppers living paycheck to paycheck. “We see the influence of the
>> paycheck cycle as pronounced now as it’s been in the past,” Chief Financial
>> Officer Tom Schoewe said on a call with reporters.
>
>> To contact the reporters on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at
>> thom...@bloomberg. net
>
>>===
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