Oh nggak saya perhatikan. Hatur nuhun Kang. Wah saya harus update semua nih. Hatur nuhun pisan Kang
________________________________ From: Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 6:49:11 PM Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) ow, data di link yg bapak kasih 9 bulan pak. 9 bulan 2009. belon diinput kayanya data full yearnya. diupdate aja sama data yg sudah dipasang di web idx. On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit <i4...@yahoo. com> wrote: >Terimakasih Kang Bagus. > >Ndak apa2 Kang, yg penting ada gambaranlah valuasi B7 dari sisi pandang Akang. > >Anyway Kang, di sheet Akang, kok thn 2010-F, CF from operating activity nya >tinggi sekali ya? sampai 7T gitu. Padahal di thn 2009 cuma 3T (data dari >http://idsaham. com/laporan- keuangan- saham-UNTR- financial_ statement- >imq-fundamental. html) > >Apakah data 2009 yg salah, atau ada asumsi yg membuat 2010-F bisa melonjak >sampai dua kali seperti itu. > >Thank you Kang. > >Timur > > > > ________________________________ From: Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure.inc@ gmail.com> >To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com >Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 5:24:11 PM > >Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) > > >bisa dicoba sih pak tp tools forward based valuation utk b7 saya >sendiri gak bisa berpegang pada hasilnya, sulit untuk bisa tarik ke >depan untuk saham2 bakrie krn pemegang saham publik sulit untuk >menebak langkah2 dan kebijakan keuangan manajemen grup bakrie dan >mengasumsikan hitungan finansial itu reliable. > >On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit <i4...@yahoo. com> wrote: >> Kang Bagus yang baik. >> Sungguh mulia hati akang kalau Akang bersedia bikinkan juga untuk B7. >> >> Apakah teman2 sependapat dengan saya? >> >> Timur >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ____________ _________ _________ __ >> From: Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure.inc@ gmail.com> >> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com >> Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 3:58:56 PM >> Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) >> >> >> Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu >> embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply >> attachment investdat anya >> >> >> UNTR profit and loss (IDR million) >> Year 2008 2009 2010-F 2011-F 2012-F 2013-F 2014-F >> >> Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 41,315,501 47,617,005 53,988,202 >> 60,128,775 >> Cost of sales (22,403,902) (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) >> (37,223,229) (42,583,449) (47,758,462) >> Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 10,393,777 11,404,753 >> 12,370,314 >> Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 >> Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) (257,681) (250,661) (243,833) >> (237,190) >> General administration expenses (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) >> (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) (2,580,314) >> EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 8,947,042 9,564,429 >> Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 >> EBIT 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 >> Investment income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 >> Net interest (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 1,728,136 >> Other financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 >> Net financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 >> 1,844,454 >> Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 8,923,205 >> 10,158,425 11,408,933 >> Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) >> (2,844,345) (3,194,487) >> Tax/Profit 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% >> Group net income 2,685,525 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 7,314,080 >> 8,214,446 >> Minority interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) >> (68,610) >> Attributable net income 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 >> 7,252,990 8,145,836 >> Dividend paid (760,429) (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) (1,911,318) >> (2,175,897) (2,443,751) >> Retained earnings 1,900,403 2,653,131 3,384,544 3,901,785 4,459,742 >> 5,077,093 5,702,085 >> >> Common stock >> Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> 3,326.9 >> Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> Shares outstanding >> Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> 3,326.9 >> Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> Earnings per share (IDR) 800 1,147 >> 1,453 1,675 1,915 2,180 2,448 >> Common stock dividend (IDR) 229 350 >> 436 503 575 654 >> 735 >> >> UNTR balance sheet (IDR million) >> Year 2008 2009 2010 - F 2011 - F 2012 - F 2013 - F 2014 - F >> >> Fixed assets >> Goodwill 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 >> Tangible assets 9,505,248 11,858,017 13,534,219 14,247,133 14,140,731 >> 12,444,277 10,304,521 >> Financial assets 207,318 313,349 404,444 452,449 498,371 541,453 578,816 >> Total fixed assets 9,712,566 12,171,366 13,938,713 14,699,682 14,639,252 >> 12,985,930 10,883,586 >> >> Current assets >> Inventories 5,246,343 3,966,358 4,709,185 5,612,315 6,541,217 7,483,165 >> 8,392,567 >> Trade receivables 3,470,549 4,462,606 5,366,197 6,305,162 7,266,835 >> 8,239,144 9,176,257 >> Other receivables and other assets 211,264 162,946 195,939 230,224 265,339 >> 300,841 335,059 >> Cash and cash equivalents 3,324,942 2,769,187 3,445,740 5,566,623 9,192,386 >> 14,777,577 21,679,099 >> Total current assets 12,253,098 11,361,097 13,717,061 17,714,324 23,265,776 >> 30,800,727 39,582,982 >> >> Deferred tax assets 56,247 32,367 50,000 51,500 51,500 51,500 51,500 >> >> Prepaid expenses and deferred charges 825,810 839,998 875,000 875,000 >> 875,000 875,000 875,000 >> >> Total assets 22,847,721 24,404,828 28,580,774 33,340,506 38,831,528 >> 44,713,156 51,393,068 >> >> Equity >> Capital stock 831,720 831,720 831,720 831,720 831,720 831,720 831,720 >> Additional paid-in capital 3,781,563 3,781,563 3,781,563 3,781,563 3,781,563 >> 3,781,563 3,781,563 >> Reserves retained from earnings 3,582,375 5,078,710 7,731,841 11,116,385 >> 15,018,170 19,477,912 24,555,005 >> Group net profit 2,660,742 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 7,252,990 >> 8,145,836 >> Differences & Revaluations 275,207 334,176 334,176 334,176 334,176 334,176 >> 334,176 >> Total equity 11,131,607 13,843,710 17,514,363 21,637,822 26,336,689 >> 31,678,361 37,648,300 >> >> Minorities 71,198 107,370 148,069 194,986 248,612 309,660 378,224 >> >> Provisions >> Pensions and similar commitments 223,196 295,159 323,616 353,176 384,022 >> 416,365 450,453 >> Other provisions 17,473 52,690 52,690 52,690 52,690 52,690 52,690 >> Total provisions 240,669 347,849 376,306 405,866 436,712 469,055 503,143 >> >> Other liabilities >> Financial debts 4,864,590 3,768,804 2,968,804 2,168,804 1,468,804 468,804 >> (331,196) >> Trade payables 4,448,749 4,264,328 5,062,959 6,033,936 7,032,621 8,045,333 >> 9,023,053 >> Other liabilities 845,581 908,918 1,092,956 1,284,199 1,480,067 1,678,102 >> 1,868,967 >> Total other liabilities 10,158,920 8,942,050 9,124,719 9,486,939 9,981,492 >> 10,192,238 10,560,825 >> >> Deferred tax liabilities 1,098,787 1,039,367 1,292,834 1,490,411 1,703,541 >> 1,939,359 2,178,095 >> >> Deferred income 146,540 124,482 124,482 124,482 124,482 124,482 124,482 >> >> Total equity and liabilities 22,847,721 24,404,828 28,580,773 33,340,506 >> 38,831,528 44,713,156 51,393,068 >> Net debt 1,539,648 999,617 Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash >> Operating capital (excluding goodwill) 13,139,074 15,276,681 17,649,624 >> 19,076,699 19,701,433 18,743,992 17,316,383 >> >> >> UNTR cash flow (IDR million) >> Year 2009 2010 - F 2011 - F 2012 - F 2013 - F 2014 - F >> >> EBIT 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 >> Depreciation and amortisation 2,818,998 3,479,963 4,096,864 4,684,389 >> 5,125,033 >> Changes in pension provisions 8,457 9,560 10,846 12,344 14,088 >> Changes in other provisions - - >> - - - >> Changes in net working capital (696,742) (714,160) (731,136) (739,014) >> (712,147) >> Income taxes paid (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) (2,844,345) >> (3,194,487) >> Changes in deferred tax assets and liabilities 235,834 196,077 213,130 >> 235,817 238,736 >> Changes in prepayments and deferred income (35,002) - >> - - - >> Cash flow from operating activities 7,118,547 8,261,910 9,326,409 >> 10,296,284 11,035,702 >> >> Capital expenditure (4,500,000) (4,200,000) (4,000,000) (3,000,000) >> (3,000,000) >> Cash flow from investing activities (4,500,000) (4,200,000) (4,000,000) >> (3,000,000) (3,000,000) >> >> Dividends to UNTR shareholders (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) >> (1,911,318) (2,175,897) >> Dividends to minority shareholders (25) (31) (36) (41) (47) >> Equity issued - - >> - - - >> Equity bought back - - >> - - - >> Change in debt (800,000) (800,000) (700,000) (1,000,000) (800,000) >> Net interest paid (2,782) 241,209 601,186 1,127,029 1,762,808 >> Investment income 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 >> Other financial items (33,306) 9,784 11,867 14,706 20,426 >> Cash flow from financing activities (1,941,994) (1,941,027) (1,700,646) >> (1,711,094) (1,134,179) >> >> Opening cash 3,324,942 2,769,187 3,445,740 5,566,623 9,192,386 >> 14,777,577 >> Change in cash (555,755) 676,553 2,120,883 3,625,763 5,585,191 >> 6,901,522 >> Closing cash 2,769,187 3,445,740 5,566,623 9,192,386 14,777,577 >> 21,679,099 >> >> >> UNTR DCF/EP valuation (IDR million) >> Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Terminus >> >> WACC 13.2% >> Incremental ROCE 33.0% >> Long term growth 5.5% >> >> EBIT 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 >> Notional taxation on EBITA (1,871,260) (2,093,369) (2,305,839) (2,505,172) >> (2,678,040) >> NOPAT 4,811,862 5,382,998 5,929,349 6,441,921 6,886,439 7,265,193 >> Depreciation & amortisation 2,818,998 3,479,963 4,096,864 4,684,389 >> 5,125,033 >> Capital expenditure (4,500,000) (4,200,000) (4,000,000) (3,000,000) >> (3,000,000) >> Change in working capital (696,742) (714,160) (731,136) (739,014) >> (712,147) >> Free cash flow 2,434,118 3,948,801 5,295,078 7,387,296 8,299,325 6,054,327 >> Opening capital employed 15,276,681 17,654,425 19,088,622 19,722,893 >> 18,777,518 17,364,631 >> Earnings growth 31.4% 11.9% 10.1% 8.6% 6.9% 5.5% >> Return on opening capital employed 31.5% 30.5% 31.1% 32.7% 36.7% >> 33.0% >> Cost of capital 13.19% 13.19% 13.19% 13.19% 13.19% 13.19% >> Investment spread 18.3% 17.3% 17.9% 19.5% 23.5% 19.8% >> Economic profit 2,797,283 3,054,860 3,412,080 3,841,008 4,410,195 >> 4,975,270 >> >> DCF valuation >> >> + PV 5 year cash flow 17,852,610 29.6% >> + PV terminal value 42,394,073 70.4% >> = Enterprise value 60,246,682 100.0% >> +Financial assets 313,349 >> -Minority interests (107,370) >> -Pension provisions (295,159) >> - Net debt (999,617) >> = Equity value 59,157,885 >> Value per share 17,782 >> >> Economic profit valuation >> >> + Opening balance sheet (excl. financial assets) 15,276,681 25.4% >> + PV 5 year economic profit 11,923,041 19.8% >> + PV terminal value (ex incremental investment) 20,308,291 33.7% >> + PV terminal value (incremental investments) 12,738,669 21.1% >> = Enterprise value 60,246,682 100.0% >> +Financial assets 313,349 >> -Minority interests (107,370) >> -Pension provisions (295,159) >> - Net debt (999,617) >> = Equity value 59,157,885 >> Value per share 17,782 >> >> UNTR cost of capital >> >> Risk free rate 9.30% >> Equity risk premium 4.00% >> Beta 1.00 >> Cost of equity 13.3% >> >> Risk free rate 9.00% >> Debt premium 1.50% >> Gross cost of debt 10.50% >> Tax rate 28.00% >> Net cost of debt 7.56% >> >> Share price 15,000.00 >> Shares issued (m) 3,327 >> Market capitalisation 49,903,200 98.0% >> Net debt (book) 999,617 2.0% >> Enterprise value 50,902,817 100.0% >> >> WACC 13.19% >> >> UNTR unleveraged cost of equity >> >> Risk free rate 9.00% >> Equity risk premium 4.00% >> Beta 1.00 >> Cost of equity 13.0% >> >> Share price 15,000.00 >> Shares issued (m) 3,327 >> Market capitalisation 49,903,200 98.0% >> Net debt (book) 999,617 2.0% >> Enterprise value 50,902,817 100.0% >> >> >> Market debt/equity 2.0% >> Deleveraged Beta 0.98 >> Deleveraged cost of equity 12.92% >> >> >> >> 2010/2/26 jsx_consultant <jsx-consultant@ centrin.net. id> >> >> >>>UNTR: Final Result 2010 >>> >>>Please find attached: >>> >>>- http://www.investda ta.net/QYUNTR. TXT >>> >>>Note: >>>- Menurunnya performance pada akhir tahun nampaknya musiman, >>>karena tahun lalu pun polanya sama (Angka Quarterly dibagian bawah) >>> >>> >> >> >> -- >> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the >> complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, >> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that >> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only >> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected... ....The test of >> all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific >> “truth”. - Richard Feynman >> >> >> >> >> > > >-- >Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to >the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In >fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because >we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things >must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be >corrected... ....The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is >the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman > > >------------ --------- --------- ------ > >+ + >+ + + + + >Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus >kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. >+ + + + + >+ +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > -- Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected... ....The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
