Kalu antm bisa dipakai rumus akang gak yah? bagaimana menghitungnya tuh? Salam kenal Kang Ocoy...matur nuwun....
________________________________ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of kang_ocoy_maen_saham Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2007 11:42 AM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] BV + GGM-Modified Model Price Saham2 Bank BUMN yg baru rilis Q3 nya Siapa tau koreksi, jadi memungkinkan ada "bargain" price dari saham2 BUMN yg berprospek baik dan laporan keuangannya baru keluar... karena bank2 pemerintah dan telkom baru ngeluarin laporan keuangan... Let's Roll on and point their "Target Price - Obrolan Bandar Edition" with the recent report, plain and un-leveraged Ocoy Style... Gordon Growth Model sajah karena gampang dan semua yg punya background finance pasti bisa, dan kalopun bukan finance jg mudah dipelajari dan dipakai. pesan ocoy sebelum menyimak valuasi ini : "beli saham itu anggap beli perusahaan dan bisnis yg perusahaan itu jalankan" berikut ini catatan untuk valuasinya Metode Penghitungan dan underlying assumption : -Kombinasi Book Value ditambah Gordon Growth Model untuk continuity value -Eps yg digunakan = menggannualize EPS YTD sampai q3 ini. -Riskfree = 8% -Beta = Beta diambil liat Bloomberg, ocoy hoream ngitung sendiri -Rm = perkiraan RM tahun depan yg normal 18%-20% -perkiraan Retention Rate = Historikal ajah dr taun kemaren -ROE = historikal atau sedikit diimprove untuk emiten yg sdg tumbuh/restrukturisasi/improving management. Valuasinya BV (Book Value) + Bussiness price atau Earning Power Value EPV = GGM model = P / (K - G) Hit It : BBNI eps TTM = Rp 141, Annualise = Rp 188 Beta (Bloomberg) = 1.16 RR tahun kemaren = 65% ROE = Historical 11% -> Dimodif jadi 14% dengan asumsi BNI is on the way improving its efficiency. RM = 20% CoE = Rf + (Beta *(Rm - Rf)) = 8% + 13.92% = 21.92% G = RR * ROE = 0.65 * 0.14 = 0.091 = 9.1% P = EPS/(CoE - G) p = 188/12.82% p = 1466 BookValue = 1245 Bussiness value should the ROE improving to 14% = Bv + EPV Nilai Bisnis = Rp 2711 Margin OF Safety = (Margin Of Safety sesuai kenyamanan masing2 lah, tapi angka yg di-suggest Graham minimal sih 25%) Catatan Untuk BBNI : Earning tidak terlalu kuat, tapi andai Earning ke depan bisa Solid dan Manajemen bisa memperbaiki ROE, peluang upside masih banyak. BMRI eps TTM = Rp 213, Annualise = Rp 285 Beta (Bloomberg) = 1.36 RR tahun kemaren = 62% ROE = Historical 14.75% -> Dimodif jadi 20% dengan asumsi BMRI is on the way furtherly improving its efficiency. RM = 20% CoE = Rf + (Beta *(Rm - Rf)) = 8% + 13.92% = 24.32% G = RR * ROE = 0.62 * 0.20 = 12.4% P = EPS/(CoE - G) p = 285/11.9% p = 2395 BookValue = 1360 Bussiness value should the ROE improving to 20% = Bv + EPV Nilai Bisnis = Rp 3755 Catatan : Size BMRI besar tapi Earningnya belum naik terlalu tajam juga, makanya ke valuasi belum bisa terlalu tinggi, tapi dengan sizeable asset sebesar itu, kalo ROE bisa naik bertahap hingga 25% dalam 3 tahun. we can see a lot more jump to BMRI's Price years ahead. -BMRI is most leveraged share to each percentage increasing in its ROE due to its huge asset owned... good management - well system = better ratios and margin. BBRI eps TTM = Rp 388, Annualise = Rp 517 Beta (Bloomberg) = 1.36 RR tahun kemaren = 55% ROE = Historical 29.75% -> Hanya dibulatkan jadi 30% dengan pertimbangan BBRI akan cukup tangguh untuk memaintain ROE nya yg tinggi dan baik RM = 20% CoE = Rf + (Beta *(Rm - Rf)) = 8% + 16.32% = 24.32% G = RR * ROE = 0.55 * 0.30 = 16.5% P = EPS/(CoE - G) p = 517/11.9% p = 6611 BookValue = 1406 Bussiness value should the ROE Stays Steady at 30% = Bv + EPV Nilai Bisnis = Rp 8017 Catatan : Good and maintained healthy performance makes BBRI keep on soaring on Price Yet it is fascinated how the financial report can keep on growing at a good rate and thus supporting the high-tagged current price with reliable and well managed fundamental underlying the price. Yap kira2 begitu, inget aja "market is there for our convenience.. dy kasih murah - beli, dy tawar mahal - jual" Gitu aja... ::BCA::
