Sentilan bagus nie pak DE :) Bisa jadi benar juga demikian, kenaikan harga minyak saat ini lebih karena alasan politis/bisnis (mirip2 di kita juga kalau bgitu, hanya terbalik, disini di-teken2 :D), saya sendiri kurang begitu paham pak soal minyak2-an ini, cuman saya jadi ter-ingat kembali cuplikan2 fakta (gara2 sentilan bapak ini hehehe..), bahwa:
- Bush akan segera berakhir masa jabatannya - Kemungkinan besar berikutnya yg bakal maju adalah kandidat dari partai saingannya (Bush - Republik kalau ga salah, kandidat dari partai Demokrat..berikutnya) - Dia dikenal kental sekali kaitannya dengan industri perminyakan (perusahaan minyak) yach..logika sederhana saja pak, aji mumpung...gtu.. :P --- In [email protected], "Dean Earwicker" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > *Menurut artikel dibawah:* > Kenaikan harga minyak dunia diperkirakan akibat aksi portfolio rebalancing > dari saham ke instrumen lain (commodity), bukan karena fundamental atau > keterbatasan supply, dan diperkirakan akan bubble sebentar lagi. > > *Bagaimana pendapat anda?* > > Regards, > DE > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > From: citation502 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Date: Nov 9, 2007 8:53 AM > Subject: [stockinvestorsforum] Oil's price rise: Is it traders, falling > dollar, or fundamentals? > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > *Oil's Recent Rise Not as Familiar as It Looks > *Traders, Not Political or Supply Concerns, May Be Pushing Fuel Toward $100 > > By Steven Mufson > Washington Post Staff Writer > Monday, November 5, 2007; A01 > > After a week of new records for crude oil prices, the question is: How high > can they go? > > In the past 10 weeks, the price of crude oil has shot up $25 a barrel, > closing at $95.93 in New > York<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/New+York?tid=informline>on > Friday, near an all-time inflation-adjusted peak. Unlike earlier > spikes > in oil prices, which came on the heels of war in the Middle > East<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Middle+East?tid=informline>, > this latest ascent does not appear to be linked to any one conflict or to > any physical shortage. > > Instead, traders who treat oil like any other commodity are widely thought > to be driving prices upward, bolstered by a weak dollar and money flowing > out of stock markets and other investment vehicles. > > So far U.S. consumers have not felt the full impact. Sluggish U.S. gasoline > demand over the past two months has made it hard for oil giants to pass > through higher costs; refinery profit margins, which hit records in the > spring, have been squeezed. But if high crude oil prices persist, they will > flow through to the gas pump. Yesterday, the Lundberg Survey reported that > the average retail price of regular gasoline is up 16 cents in the past two > weeks to $2.96 a gallon. > > Many veteran oil analysts say this is a bubble. Oil is historically a > cyclical business. Modestly higher production by the Organization of > Petroleum Exporting > Countries<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/OPEC?tid=informline>, > a warm winter, slower U.S. economic growth and a flattening of demand in the > United States could puncture these lofty prices. > > "It just seems that the market is spasming here," said Adam Robinson, an oil > analyst at Lehman > Brothers<http://financial.washingtonpost.com/custom/wpost/html-qcn.asp?dispnav=business&mwpage=qcn&symb=LEH&nav=el>. > If slowly declining petroleum inventories start to build again, he said, > "the radical increase we've seen to the upside can repeat on the way down." > Oppenheimer<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Oppenheimer+Holdings+Inc.?tid=informline>& > Sons analyst Fadel > Gheit<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Fadel+Gheit?tid=informline>says > oil is $30 a barrel overpriced. > > But analysts also say that the past 10 weeks have demonstrated the power of > traders at investment houses. Deutsche > Bank<http://financial.washingtonpost.com/custom/wpost/html-qcn.asp?dispnav=business&mwpage=qcn&symb=DB&nav=el>oil > economist Adam Sieminski, who spent six months on the bank's trading > desk, said it is important not to underestimate the role of sentiment and > technical factors, such as patterns of price movements and the need to hedge > risks in other markets. Now, when investors hold a large number of options > to buy oil at a price of $100, he says, "it's almost like magnetism. It > draws prices to that level." > > Traders say that they are not buying and selling on whims, however. The > unusually thin cushion of excess oil production around the world and the > rapid growth in consumption in > China<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/China?tid=informline>and > India <http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/India?tid=informline>make > this rise in prices different from earlier oil price spikes, they > argue. That combination, the traders add, leaves the oil markets one > incident away from an even steeper increase. > > "There is no current shortage, but no one deals on today's market. They make > deals based on tomorrow's market. And that's what they're worried about," > said Joseph Stanislaw, an oil consultant and senior adviser to the > accounting firm Deloitte & > Touche<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Deloitte+Touche+Tohmatsu?tid=informline> > . > > The weekend declaration of a state of emergency in > Pakistan<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Pakistan?tid=informline>, > which has no direct effect on global oil supplies, won't calm nerves. > > "It would be silly if we waited until things were not available," said a > veteran energy trader at a U.S. hedge fund, who spoke on the condition of > anonymity to protect his business relationships. He said traders have become > convinced that military conflict between the United States and > Iran<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Iran?tid=informline>is > inevitable. He added, "People react to perceptions of what will > happen. > That's not idle speculation." > > Last week, nonprofit group Securing America's Future Energy engaged in some > speculation. The group invited former Cabinet members and top U.S. officials > to act out how a U.S. administration might respond to an oil supply > disruption. The exercise assumed that a key oil pipeline was cut by > explosions in Azerbaijan<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Azerbaijan?tid=informline>, > an insurgency continued in > Nigeria<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Nigeria?tid=informline>'s > oil-rich Niger Delta<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Niger+Delta?tid=informline>, > and cuts in oil output were made by Iran and > Venezuela<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Venezuela?tid=informline>as > a result of souring > U.S. relations. In this hypothetical scenario, oil prices hit $160 a barrel. > > What makes the scenario more plausible than ever is that the world is > consuming 85.9 million barrels of oil a day, but there are only about 2 > million barrels a day of extra production capacity, almost all of it in Saudi > Arabia<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Saudi+Arabia?tid=informline>. > Much of that excess is a low-quality crude oil that can be used only in the > most modernized refineries. That leaves the oil market sensitive to threats > that might have been disregarded in earlier years. > > Some experts say that high prices will change the balance, creating new > supplies and lower demand. > > "It's hard to keep in mind that things do move in cycles and that the laws > of supply and demand are unlikely to have been abolished," said Daniel > Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "High prices, > particularly if they become very high prices, will catalyze responses in > supply and demand, and innovation," he said. > > Indeed, just five years after their 1981 peak, oil prices slumped, prompting > then-Vice President George H.W. > Bush<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/George+H.W.+Bush?tid=informline>to > lament to Saudi leaders about how that was hurting the > Texas <http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Texas?tid=informline>economy. > Eight years after > Iraq <http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Iraq?tid=informline>'s > invasion of Kuwait<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Kuwait?tid=informline>drove > prices up again, the Asian financial crisis pushed them to new lows. > > But many oil experts say that this cycle isn't like earlier ones. A few > argue that world oil is running out. Others note that China and India's > economic advances and the growth of U.S. suburbs and exurbs have built in > oil demand, even at high prices. Moreover, between 2005 and 2015, China and > India's populations are expected to grow by about 240 million. That could > soak up new production capacity that Saudi Arabia is currently adding. > > In addition, countries rich in oil have not been fully exploiting their > reserves. War-torn Iraq is producing almost 2 million barrels a day less > than its 1970s peak. Production has declined in Venezuela because of > government disputes with workers and foreign oil firms. Insurgents in > Nigeria's oil-rich Niger River delta have kidnapped foreign oil workers and > attacked installations, forcing companies to suspend about 700,000 barrels a > day of production. In > Mexico<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Mexico?tid=informline>, > United Arab Emirates<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/United+Arab+Emirates?tid=informline>, > the Caspian Sea<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Caspian+Sea?tid=informline>and > elsewhere, maintenance and weather has at times curtailed production. > > Supply and demand might not respond as usual. Ironically, high taxes in > Europe<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Europe?tid=informline>that > helped reduce consumption in past years now dilute the effect of > rising > crude oil prices. And high taxes in producing countries mean that oil firms > don't get much more incentive to explore as prices rise. At a recent > conference in Moscow<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Moscow?tid=informline>, > one oil executive said that, above certain thresholds, Russian taxes siphon > off $19.15 of a $20 a barrel price increase. > > OPEC may have also miscalculated. Its most moderate members -- Saudi Arabia > and Kuwait -- trimmed production a year ago to prop up then-sagging oil > prices at $55 to $60 a barrel. According to the International > Energy<http://financial.washingtonpost.com/custom/wpost/html-qcn.asp?dispnav=business&mwpage=qcn&symb=IENI&nav=el>Agency, > Saudi output has been running about half a million barrels a day > lower than last year. Saudi Arabia may have delayed a production boost this > fall out of fear -- wrong so far -- that the recent credit crisis would slow > the U.S. economy. > > OPEC countries maintain, however, that the recent run-up in oil prices isn't > their fault and point to speculators. "What more can we do?" asks Nader > Sultan, an oil consultant and former president of state-owned Kuwait > Petroleum Corp.<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Kuwait+Petroleum+Corporation?tid=informline>"The > taps are open." > > The power of traders and investors over the vast oil market has been growing > since the early 1980s. Until then, international oil companies had long-term > contracts with exporting countries that established prices and volumes. > Relatively modest amounts of oil were traded daily on what was known as the > spot market. > > But after the two 1970s oil shocks and outbreak of war between Iran and > Iraq, that system broke down. An ill-disciplined OPEC stopped setting prices > and struggled to stick to output quotas to manage prices. Gradually prices > declined, because of more efficient use of oil in industrialized countries > and extra output from non-OPEC countries and OPEC's swing producer, Saudi > Arabia. > > In March 1983, the century-old New York Mercantile > Exchange<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/New+York+Mercantile+Exchange+Inc.?tid=informline>started > a market for crude oil that has grown steadily. Now most major oil > companies simply peg their sales and purchases of crude oil to the > fluctuating prices on the exchange. > > "I can't explain why the price is where it is today," Henry Hubble, Exxon > Mobil<http://financial.washingtonpost.com/custom/wpost/html-qcn.asp?dispnav=business&mwpage=qcn&symb=XOM&nav=el>vice > president of investor relations, said Thurday during a press call > about > the company's earnings. "The market is going to dictate . . . and we're a > taker of those prices." > > Exxon has a spacious trading floor in > Fairfax<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Fairfax?tid=informline>, > Va., where about 80 people trade crude oil and another 80 trade products. > But they don't negotiate prices; instead they try to take advantage of oil > quality differences, tanker locations and tiny gaps between markets to meet > Exxon's refinery needs as cheaply as possible. The final prices are set > relative to those on the New York Mercantile Exchange or similar markets on > the day of delivery. > > One surprise about oil prices: So far, the economy seems to be coping. > Despite an average crude oil price of $75 a barrel, the economy grew at a > brisk 3.9 percent pace in the third quarter. Unemployment is low, and > inflation is modest. > > By contrast, the oil price spikes in the 1970s fueled high inflation and > weakened growth, a combination known as stagflation. > > Improved automobile mileage, more efficient manufacturers and greater > reliance on services have made the U.S. economy more resilient. The United > States now uses half the energy it did in 1980 for every unit of economic > output. Energy costs make up a smaller portion of household budgets than in > 1981. > > In a recent paper, "Who's Afraid of a Big Bad Oil Shock?" Yale > University<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Yale+University?tid=informline>economics > professor William Nordhaus credited smarter monetary policy and > better general economic conditions. Moreover, he said, in percentage terms, > the oil shocks of the 1970s were much bigger than the steady price increases > since 2002. > > But Nordhaus wrote before the latest jump in prices, and many economists are > wondering how high will be high enough to hurt the broader economy. Since > 2000, oil prices have quadrupled. > > Robert Rubin<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Robert+Rubin?tid=informline>, > who repeated that "markets go up, markets go down" while he was President > Bill Clinton's Treasury secretary, said last week that "when oil was at $35, > people said $60 oil would have tremendous effects on the economy, and at $90 > we still have robust growth." But he added, "there comes some point where we > will feel that vulnerability to high oil prices." >
