Grafik CPO<http://ifs.marketcenter.com/charts/charts.jsp?cID=AGMAS&iFSsymbols=MPO+F8-BMD&iFScompareTo=&iFSperiod=D&iFSvminutes=&iFSchartsize=800x550&iFSbardensity=LOW&iFSbartype=CANDLE&iFSstudies=&iFSohlc=true%255d>
Regards, DE On Jan 21, 2008 9:07 AM, Hendra Susanto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > *Palm oil sector outlook: Conditions ripening - Upgrade CPO forecasts > (attached)* > > > *We have upgraded our CPO price forecasts from RM3,000/t to RM3,400/t, or > 13%, for 2008 and 2009. This isslightly above current prices RM3,280 and > consensus (RM2,750/t). * > > *Rightly so, I am convinced that this is the year for soft commodities. > Analayst on the street will have to be in the catch up game on upgrading > their assumotions like we have seen in coal and base metals 12-24 months > ago. Soft commodites like CPO is still a massive underperformer to oil and > base metals. When inventory reach critically low levels like we see now > (like base metals 18-24 months ago, note countries like China, Russia, > Agentina are not imposing either export quota and tariffs) prices is > unlikely just to double. Triple and quadtriple is more likely. Earning of > producers is highly highly leveraged to price. * > > > Ialso raised the rubber price assumption by similar percentage of 13.3% to > US$2.8 cents. > > *Indonesian listed plantation* > > Following CLSA house view of higher CPO price of RM3,400 (vs. previously > RM3,000), we have upgraded our earnings of Astra Agro by 19%, Lonsum (23%), > and Bakrie Sumatera (31%). This reflects the earnings sensitivity to the > underlying commodities as we raised our CPO price and rubber price > assumption by 13.3% > > Indonesian listed plantation companies are largely upstream plantation > with minimal exposure in refinery and oleo chemical except Smart that has > large 850k tons refinery/cooking oil facilities. Earnings sensitivity to > every 10% increase in both palm oil and rubber price is 15% in Astra Agro, > 17% in Lonsum, and 24% in Bakrie Sumatera. > > *We continue to prefer Lonsum and BSumatera that trades at 35% discount to > Astra Agro on EV per planted hectare valuation. We have raised our target > price to reflect CLSA bullish view on CPO and soft commodities in general. > * > > *New target price for Astra Agro is Rp33,000 (up from Rp25,000), Lonsum is > Rp19,000 (Rp14,000), and Bakrie Sumatera Rp3,200 (Rp2,650).* > > > Best regards, > *Wuddy Warsono, CFA* > CLSA Indonesia | Institutional Sales > Phone: (62-21) 573 9460 > HP: (62) 816 78 6352 > Fax: (62-21) 574 6923* > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > ------------------------------------------------------------- > > *CLSA CLEAN & GREEN: Please consider our environment before printing this > Email* > > The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory > Notices, which can be viewed at https://www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html or > sent to you upon request. > >
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