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http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/15/business/EU-GEN-Russia-Oil-Slump.php
James Arifin <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
On 4/22/08, <ladung.web.id> wrote: For your pleasure readings.
Salam,
Ladung
Why oil could hit $180 a barrel
Just when crude is becoming more costly to extract and process, producers in
three key countries are short of cash. And without that money, recent finds
won't do much good.
By Jim Jubak
Yikes! Oil at $117 a barrel. It has to go down from here, right?
Wrong. In the short term -- say, the next two years or so -- we're looking
at bad news about global oil supply that could take the price of a barrel of
crude to $180.
Needless to say, today's $3.50-a-gallon gasoline would look cheap if oil
prices hit $180 a barrel. At that price for a barrel of oil, gasoline would
cost somewhere north of $5.50 a gallon.
The good news is that's about the price, experts now say, that would send
global consumption tumbling and oil prices into retreat, as drivers
scrambled to find ways to conserve.
Of course, experts once thought $3-a-gallon gasoline would lead to a drop in
consumption. The latest forecast from the International Energy Agency calls
for global oil demand of 87.2 million barrels a day this year. That would be
an increase in consumption of 1.3 million barrels a day from 2007 -- despite
a U.S. economic slowdown and soaring oil prices.
So why do I think oil prices will keep climbing for two more years at least?
A terrible coincidence of geology and geopolitics. Just when oil is getting
more expensive to produce, the oil industries in three key countries --
Mexico, Russia and Nigeria -- find themselves short of cash. And without
that cash, oil production in these countries, and global oil production in
general, is headed into a decline.
The Russian oil industry, for example, announced that production had fallen
1% in the first quarter of 2008. According to the Russian energy ministry,
oil production for the full year could be lower than in 2007.
Any decline would mark a huge turnaround. Russian production has grown
steadily over the past 10 years, and in its supply-and-demand projections
the International Energy Agency has been counting on growth in Russian
production of 5% by 2012 to offset big declines in older fields in the North
Sea and Mexico.
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