Properti ini kan yang bermasalah di cdo-states saja ya akibat kebanyakan development disana. Dulu sempat dihitung th 2014 baru sembuh, duh nda bisa kebayang harus bear segitu lama. Tapi terakhir sempat diupdate menjadi th 2009. Kalau misalnya 2009 berarti akhir th ini sudah boleh berakhir dung bearnya?
Saya sendiri berpikir sebetulnya di negara di luar States mungkin yang sebenarnya justru deflasi. Kenapa? karena inflasi itu relatif terhadap negara lain. Kalau dollar us$ mengalami inflasi, artinya mata uang lain justru seharusnya mengalami deflasi. Parahnya justru kebanyakan negara menaikan interest rate. Lagipula tidak ada masalah sama sekali dengan bisnis properti. Di Australia, properti suplai sudah sangat accute sekali, developer sudah tidak membangun. Entah di Indonesia mungkin lain, pembangunan jalan terus tidak peduli BI rate naik, padahal di negara maju, interest rate sangat sensitif sekali terhadap borrowing capacity/demand. Mungkin suatu hari nanti baru realize terjadi deflasi, real sector slowing too much, interest rate diturunkan, itu saat semua developer berlomba2 tapi borrowing capacity/demand sudah naik jauh lebih cepat, mungkin akan terjadi short term booming/siklus di properti. :) Saya masih tetap bet terjadi short term properti boom in 2009 untuk beberapa negara. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > ------------------------------ > > [Morgan Stanley] Asean Property - Key takeaways from Property Corporate Day > 2008 > > > > *Singapore** Property: *We reiterate our view that Singapore property > exposure is best found within the S-REITs space, given the downside risk > from the residential portfolios of the Singapore developers that could lead > to downgrades in NAVs. While we were encouraged by recent take-ups in the > low-end residential segment, the recent announcement that authorities are > clamping down on a loophole that allowed developers to sell in excess of the > gross floor areas by adding planter boxes and bay windows is likely to > dampen buying sentiment and residential prices, in our opinion. Our > preference for S-REITs over developers is a relative rather than a > compelling call, given the lack of near-term catalysts for an upward > re-rating of either sector. We prefer stocks offering high dividend yields > supported by stable earnings and backed by strong balance sheets. Ascott > Residence Trusts (ASRT.SI, S$1.12, Overweight) is our S-REIT top pick, > offering 8.2% FY08F DPU yield and a potential total return of 12.4%. We > maintain our Underweight on City Developments (CTDM.SI; S$11.20) on > valuation. > > *Malaysia Property: *SP Setia believes that the mid-upper residential > segment remains resilient and is confident of achieving a 20% YoY increase > in residential prices for its projects for FY08, having achieved 10-15% > increases year-to date. KLCC Properties similarly expects office demand in > Kuala Lumpur to remain buoyant, given the strong demand from oil and gas > industries and as prime grade A-plus supply remains tight, with vacancies of > ~3-5%. > > *Indonesia Property: *Bakrieland expects demand to improve pending approval > of the foreign property ownership law allowing foreigners to own leasehold > land for 70 years versus the current 25 years. Affordability remains intact > with low mortgage rates, and relative to other regional markets, residential > prices of US$993/sqm and 13% yields are attractive. > > *Indonesia**: Bakrieland (ELTY.JK, Not Rated)* > > *Management is positive on Indonesia property market: *1) Demand should > increase if the foreign property ownership law allowing foreigners to own > leasehold land for 70 years vs. the current 25 years is approved by > Parliament. 2) Properties remain affordable, as mortgage rates are still > 300bps below the average 14% levels seen in 2004-2006. 3) Property prices of > US$993/sqm and yields of 13% are attractive compared with other regional > markets. In comparison, Hong Kong and Singapore property prices are 13x > and12x higher than Indonesia property prices, and yields in Indonesia exceed > those in HK and Singapore by 3x and 5x, respectively. > > *Bakrieland believes it would be a key beneficiary of the aforesaid > positives, as*: 1) it has a healthy net cash balance sheet, which currently > stands at Rp1 trillion; 2) its new infrastructure projects would enable the > company to identify the best sites for its property projects to derive > synergistic benefits; 3) it is forming a partnership with Dubai-based > Limitless to develop properties in Indonesia; 4) it has a landbank of more > than 50 hectares that management believes can support profits to 2014. > Bakrieland is guiding for 2008 revenue of Rp1.1 trillion and gross margins > of 35-40%. >
