*yang mendowngrade DB, mungkin kang ocoy bisa
menjelaskan perubahan wacc dari 14% ke 16% apakah hal
tersebut memang reasonable or kang ocoy mungkin bisa
sharing opininya tentang nilai wajar tersebut,anyway
from my opinion since market is already know about
this downgrade then everyone will look if aali price
will go down to 15.000 in coming weeks/months or in
other words investors would stop buying at current
price and waiting in the bottom or it can be said that
AALI akan di MARKED DOWN, he...he...he....wel well,
what a beautiful game that we play today right?, Oh I
forgot something, someone downgrade INCO to 2.000,
what a very good anaylis downgrade from 7.000 or is
that indicating something smelly (please guys/ girls
you know that, somebody here want every stock analysis
downgrading commodity stocks recently)*
AALI target 15.000
Posted by: "Kidod25" [EMAIL PROTECTED] kidod25
Thu Aug 7, 2008 9:28 pm (PDT)
saya ga tau siapa yg buat??
Downgrading Astra Agro to Sell (from Buy)
Our rating and earnings estimate downgrades reflect
serious
deterioration in palm
oil price outlook and much higher production costs. We
believe the
market still
underestimates these developments, particularly
sharply rising
fertiliser prices.
Our sensitivity shows Astra Agro's net earnings fall
by 2.2% and 2.8%
for every
1% decline in palm oil price and 5% increase in
production cost,
respectively.
Double hit for Astra Agro
We expect significant deterioration in its earnings
and margin
outlook starting
2H08 owing to lower palm oil prices and higher
production costs. Both
greater
palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the
US have weakened
CPO
price outlook (already 21% off its recent high in June
2008).
Meanwhile, we
forecast margin pressures from rising production costs
to persist
amid sharply
rising fertiliser prices particularly for potash and
phosphate.
Reducing EBIT forecasts by 17-40% for 2008-10
Our downward revisions reflect a 7-19% reduction in
the CPO price
assumption
and a 21-34% increase in production cost/kg. We cut
CPO price
assumptions
following deterioration in palm oil outlook,
especially due to
greater-than- expected
palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the
US. Meanwhile,
the rise in
production cost is due to a steep 100-200% rise in
fertiliser cost in
past 6 months.
Lowering TP to Rp15,000 from Rp31,500
The TP revision reflects our earnings est. downgrades
following lower
CPO price
and higher production costs and WACC rate. We derive
the TP based on
a 10-year
DCF valuation using 16% (from 14%) WACC and 2.5% TG
(page 6). Upside
risks
include lowering production costs, securing land bank
and seedlings
to expand its
plantation, and securing/renewing necessary land
licensing (page 6).
