hahaha.. it's my subject when I was in 2nd semester.. LOL.. u really dont need to post it in here..
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Elaine Sui" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > *Outflow? > > I forget to tell you, we moved some of our equity funds to fixed income, > they give better returns for sometime now, and seems that everyone else did > it too, that's why IDR has been quite strong albeit IDX tumbles. > > I expect central bank to raise rates even more, maybe to 9.5%? Any comment? > They are doing what they call "Tight Money Policy", to keep the money from > going out of the country by selling short term bonds. > > What is TMP? > > lol. it's a central bank policy designed to curb inflation by reducing the > reserves of commercial banks (and consequently the money supply, through > open market operations), opposite of easy monetary policy (like the Fed has > been doing). **This policy is exercised in times of inflation. > > How the central bank do this? > > * > > *1. Selling securities (bonds) to banks and the public.* > > - *This decreases the supply of money. The public is giving money (buy) > to the Central Bank. In exchange, the Fed is giving (sell) the public/banks > bonds, which isn't money. Hence, there is less money circulating in the > economy. > > * > - *Because banks now have less reserves, they cannot loan as much money > to the public.* > > *2. Increase the Interest Rate* > > - *By increasing the Int. rate, it costs more interest for banks to > borrow from other banks. Thus, banks have less excess reserves and lend > less to the public.* > > *3. Increase the Reserve Ratio* > > - *By increasing the reserve ratio, banks now have less excess reserves. > Therefore, money supply has been decreased, and the banks cannot loan as > much money to the public.* > > * * > > *Effects of Changing Money Supply on Aggregate Demand * > > * > 1. interest rates rise (SM=Supply, DM=Demand). Ppl instead of holding IDR, > they prefer to hold high yielding bonds. > * > > ** > > *2. investment falls. Self explanatory. > * > > ** > > *3. Aggregate demand <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregate_demand> falls* > > ** > > *The steeper the Dm curve, the larger the effect of any given change in the > money supply on the equilibrium rate of interest. Furthermore, any given > change in the interest rate will have a larger impact on investment - and > hence a greater impact on aggregate demand and GDP.* > > * > * > > *As a side note, an tight money policy decreases net exports because of > higher interest rates.* > * > The food prices will spike in the coming month, mainly in fasting season (I > still don't get it, does ppl eat more in fasting season?) and idl fitr, ppl > will need more cash in hand thus making inflation rise again, so from my > point of view, the central bank is doing it right by increasing int rate.* > * > Now, would you keep your cmdty stocks at this time? This is very scary you > know, sell them all to me..lol** Terserah mau tidak percaya juga Elaine > tidak perduli.. ^_^ > > Elaine agak malas kasih lecture apalagi OB isinya orang pintar semua, paling > enak kasih gambar tombstone saja, lebih seru... > > * > > > ** > > *Or this..* > > > ** > > > ** > > *sadly only few got the message.. well that's your problem, not mine.. ^_^ > * > > * * > *Elaine** > * > On Sun, Aug 17, 2008 at 6:20 PM, jsx_consultant < > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Elaine Sui" > > <you.can.call.me.elaine@> wrote: > > > > > > *I'd buy Astra Agro @13000-15000 and sell them @45k in 2H/FY09. > > That'd be > > > 200% gain. Fair enough? > > > > It is fair enough..... > > > > > > > > > > Both of them are right, since there's no exact timeframe supplied. > > Anyway, I > > > put a huge proportion on financials and property, as you can see > > I'm seeking > > > the most defensive sector in this 2H08 (refer to Marcello's post), > > > > Last week, the switching from Commodity to Bangking sector is > > still happening, but the OUTFLOW fom Commodity sector is greater > > than the INFLOW to banking sector. So the is a NET REDEMPTION from > > BEI. > > > > Check this Fund Flow graphics: http://www.invest2000.net/ihsgflow.png > > > > Pada graphic terlihat: > > - IHSG jatuh lebih dalam dibanding Fund Flow dari tgl 11/8/08 > > sampai hari ini. Ini berarti IHSG jatuh karena faktor SENTIMEN, > > yaitu jatuhnya harga minyak dan bukan semata FUND OUTFLOW. > > > > > > > > but IF > > > cmdty stocks fall way beyond my valuation, I might increase it back. > > > > > > Unlike traders I just can't put them in 100% in cash. That's why > > they're > > > called Actively Managed Funds. > > > > > > (It's funny, somehow some ppl looks smarter and talks much that he > > used to. > > > It's traders psychological trait, the more you make analysis, the > > less > > > you're trading. It's a sign that most player here are staying away > > from the > > > market which also indicates that the bottom is near, and somehow I > > know > > > hendrik was not trading what he was saying... roflmao just > > kidding,..) > > > > > > Well all I know that this year crude oil will be back to 80, fed > > stays at > > > 2.00, ID int. rate will be 9.75, PO futures below 2000, N McCloskey > > below > > > 100, generally everything will be down before they start to rebound, > > > obviously, and Yudoyhono will win the election for the 2nd time. > > > > > > I won't respond to any of your argument cuz it's not happening yet. > > Arguing > > > the future is stupid. ^_^ > > > > > > As for Bakrie Group, we just don't like to invest our fund to > > someone we > > > can't trust. (it feels like telling your pet dog to guard your > > sausages, you > > > just KNOW it won't work..lol) > > > > > > Happy Independence Day, I wish IDX will shine again and everyone is > > > wealthier next year. > > > > > > Elaine** > > > * > > > 2008/8/17 jsx_consultant <jsx-consultant@> > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "hendrik_lwww" > > > > <hendrik_lwww@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > .... > > > > > salah satu kelamahan BALANCING adalah > > > > > newbie akan bingung mau CL apa tidak > > > > > > > > Jangankan Newbie, embah aja BINGUNG mau ikut pak Halim atau > > > > Macquire. Yang manasih yg BENER ??? Jangan jangan kedua > > > > dua nya salah dan yang bener adalah yang punya TP MODERAT > > > > tidak kerendahan dan tidak ketinggian. > > > > > > > > Member senior 'punya' tanggung jawab ama yg yunior, AT LEAST > > > > untuk tidak memberikan posting yg bernuansa 'TERROR', berikan > > > > mereka info yg WAJAR (meskipun embah yakin pak Halim dan > > > > Macquire merasa SUDAH memberi info yg WAJAR meskipun angkanya BEDA > > > > SELANGIT). > > > > > > > > Sehingga para Newbie at least akan merasa FIT (tidak stress) > > > > untuk membuat DECISION: Cutloss, HOLD, BUY atau Average down. > > > > > > > > Jika mereka STRESS, mereka tidak akan bisa membuat keputusan > > > > YG CORRECT, karena FEAR akan lebih dominan daripas logika... > > > > > > > > Kalo soal benar atau salah sih MASALAH LAIN karena salah satu > > > > dari SENIOR diatas AJA akan SALAH, apalagi yg newbie...hehehe.. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > > > > > + + > > > > + + + + + > > > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > > > + + + + + > > > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > + + > > + + + + + > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > + + + + + > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > >
