Oke Mbah. Ini coba di review valuasi ANTM, tetapi saya tidak menghitung yang RUMIT sama seperti BOZZ, dan menggunakan PEMBULATAN: Pertama saya hitung EPS Annual 2007 yaitu tahun dimana Nikel sampai di highest, SS 1:5 sudah terhitung:
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 EPS 2007 136 100 189 141 565 Kemudian masukan harga saham ANTM tertinggi 5300, ketemu PER 9.38: ANTM 2007 PRICE 5,300 PER 9.38 EPS 565 PER 9.38 ini saya jadikan JANGKAR atau PIVOT nantinya pun ANTM akan berfluktuasi diarea itu. Karena minyak akan turun $70-80 dari $147 berarti sekitar 50% (menurut saya lho) maka komoditi pun akan turun 50%. Nah kalo yg turun adalah harga komonya maka yg terpengaruh adalah EPS, right. EPS=Sales-COGS, karena harga turun 50% tentu Sales akan turun juga 50%. Bagaimana dg COGS alias BIAYA ini? Kalo semua komoditi turun 50% biaya juga akan turun sekitar itu pada saat normal nanti. Karenanya EPS akan turun 50% juga di 2008 ini, EPS 2008=565/2=282.5: ANTM 2008 PRICE 2,650 PER 9.38 EPS 282.5 Akhirnya ketemu PIVOT di 2650 saya bulatkan jadi 2500 Anehnya dihitung pake metode lain pun ketemu angka yg sama, seperti saat menghitung BUMI 4500-3500. Sebagai PIVOT artinya titik sentral harga ANTM saat semua kembali ke harga wajar adalah 2500. Tentu akan BERAYUN disekitar itu, sama seperti Nikel akan berfluktuasi di sekitar 20.000, sama seperti PER ANTM naik-turun di sekitar 9.38, bisa naik ke 12 ato turun ke 5. rgs, JM --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsx_consultant" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Engga salah hitung pak Jos ?. > > Coba pak Jos check, dulu ketika harga Nickel 20.000 berapa harga > saham ANTM. Memang saat ini harga Emas bisa menolong > valuasi ANTM. > > Kalo bisa dibeberin aja perhitungan Valuasi ANTM nya pak Jos, > jadi bisa direview bareng2... > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jos_martino" > jos_martino@ wrote: > > > > Yah saya tidak menyangka ANTM terkena euforia terlalu dalam sampe > > 1200 padhal hitungan saya LOWEST-nya 1500. > > > > Tetapi saya YAKIN valuasi ANTM saat ini 2500 seperti yg sudah > pernah > > saya posting kira-kira setara dg Nikel $20.000/mt. Kalo JATUH > > dibawah itu akan CEPAT BALIK ke 2500. > > > > Itu menurut saya lho, bung Frendy. Boleh dipercaya boleh juga tidak > > tapi mudah-mudahan seperti itu. > > > > rgs, > > JM > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Frendy" <wildwildwest84@> > > wrote: > > > > > > Pak Jos...dulu ramalah anda di BUMI TERJADI.... > > > TAPI kyk nya di ANTM....susah untuk TERJADI.... > > > yg hajar ANTM banyak....yg SHORT banyak... > > > yg beli KAGAK ADA....yg NYANGKUT...udah tutup MONITOR.... > > > yg MARGIN udah CL.......heheh.....gimana masih mau NAIK ?? > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: jos_martino > > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > > Sent: Friday, September 12, 2008 6:24 PM > > > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Alert: Euro lagi rebound kencang > > ke 1,41 > > > > > > > > > Tenang, bung Rei... > > > > > > Calm...Relax..... > > > Tarik napas...buang (3X), pejamkan mata. > > > Terus bayangin grafik ANTM bergerak naik perlahan-lahan. > > > Setelah menembus 1500, dengan cepat meroket ke 1900... > > > > > > Ulangi step diatas 3x sehari, NISCAYA akan benar terjadi SENIN > > besok. > > > > > > rgs, > > > JM > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Rei <highwaystar91@> > > wrote: > > > > > > > > Sudah kepalang tanggung juga pak, mau jual sdh kerendahan > > walau > > > warning pak > > > > Oen mengerikan...kiamat kah den Bei? Maybe...masa tujuan bozz > > > hancurin > > > > periuk nasi sendiri? Hard to believe... > > > > Lagian, saya kan dikasih wish sama Genie Elaine, dan saya > > minta > > > 1000 points > > > > rally THIS YEAR as PROMISED! :D > > > > nagih.co.id > > > > > > > > > > > > On 9/12/08, kangduren <kangduren@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > isu badai ini memang aneh, kalo dilihat sih memang besar, > > tapi > > > harga > > > > > oil masih stagnan. Thx mas Kabu infonya, saya masih HOLD > > saham > > > juga, > > > > > cuma udah ga trading lagi, wait n see. > > > > > > > > > > salam > > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar% > > > 40yahoogroups.com>, > > > > > Kabu Nusi <megashoken@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Hurricane Ike Heads for Texas Coast; Thousands Flee > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news? > > > pid=20601087&sid=ax4kDoAg6pfI&refer=home > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Texas Coast > > > > > > Ike's center was 265 miles southeast of Galveston and > > moving > > > > > > west-northwest at 13 mph. Because of its wide diameter, > > Ike > > > will > > > > > > be felt as a ``major hurricane'' along the Texas coast > long > > > > > > before landfall, which is forecast for near Galveston > late > > > today > > > > > > or early tomorrow. > > > > > > The storm left more than 70 people dead in Haiti and > killed > > > > > > four in Cuba as it swept through Caribbean earlier this > > week. > > > > > > The U.S. weather center's forecasters said Ike may > > > > > > strengthen to at least Category 3 intensity, meaning > > sustained > > > > > > winds of at least 111 mph, before it makes landfall. Other > > > > > > forecasters predict Ike may become a Category 4 storm, the > > > > > > second-strongest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, > > packing > > > > > > winds from 131 to 155 mph. > > > > > > Hurricane-force winds extend as far as 120 miles from > Ike's > > > > > > center, while tropical-storm force winds of at least 39 > mph > > > > > > extend out 275 miles, according to the hurricane center. > > > > > > Larger Than Katrina > > > > > > Ike's winds cover an area larger than that of Katrina, the > > > > > > storm that devastated New Orleans in 2005, said Jeff > > Masters, > > > > > > director of meteorology at private forecaster Weather > > > Underground > > > > > > Inc. > > > > > > ``The total amount of energy is more powerful than > Katrina, > > > > > > so we could be seeing a storm surge that could rival > > Katrina,'' > > > > > > Masters said yesterday. Ike is so big ``the location > > doesn't > > > > > > matter much. It is going to inundate a huge part of the > > Texas > > > > > > coast.'' > > > > > > President George W. Bush declared an emergency for Texas, > > > > > > his home state. As many as 7,500 Texas National Guard > > members > > > are > > > > > > on standby. > > > > > > Houston's population is 2.2 million, making it the fourth- > > > > > > biggest U.S. city, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, > > and its > > > > > > metropolitan area, with a population of 5.6 million, is > the > > > > > > sixth-largest in the U.S. > > > > > > ``It is a massive storm. It is impacting in terms of its > > > > > > scope 40 percent of the Gulf,'' Michael Chertoff, > > secretary of > > > > > > homeland security, said in a conference call from > > Washington. > > > > > > ``The most important message I can send is: Do not take > > this > > > > > > storm lightly. This is not a storm to gamble with. It is > > large > > > > > > and powerful and carries a lot of water with it.'' > > > > > > Refining Capacity > > > > > > About 12 percent of U.S. refining capacity is being shut > > > > > > before Ike makes landfall. The Gulf coast region is home > > to 26 > > > > > > percent of U.S. oil production. > > > > > > The storm has shut 97 percent of Gulf oil production and > 93 > > > > > > percent of natural gas output, the Minerals Management > > Service > > > > > > said yesterday. > > > > > > Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as $1.42, or > > 1.4 > > > > > > percent, to $102.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile > > > Exchange. > > > > > > It was at $102.12 a barrel at 8:54 a.m. in London. Prices > > are > > > up > > > > > > 28 percent from a year ago. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --- On Fri, 9/12/08, kangduren <kangduren@> wrote: > > > > > > From: kangduren <kangduren@> > > > > > > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Alert: Euro lagi rebound > > kencang > > > ke 1,41 > > > > > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar% > > > 40yahoogroups.com> > > > > > > Date: Friday, September 12, 2008, 9:28 AM > > > > > > > > > > > > salut buat Mbah dan yg lainnya yg masih bertempur, > kadang2 > > > semakin > > > > > > keras org semakin gampang 'patah' kayak saya, dah ambil > > worst > > > case di > > > > > > 1850 masih terkapar disaat optimis2nya, emang big money > > kagak > > > bisa > > > > > > dilawan (setidaknya oleh saya, minim info bandar), > > sementara > > > pamit > > > > > > trading juga udah cape. > > > > > > > > > > > > salam > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar% > > > 40yahoogroups.com>, > > > > > "jsx_consultant" > > > > > > <jsx-consultant@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Alert: Euro lagi rebound kencang ke 1,41 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Mudah mudah minyak menyusul rebound malam ini > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > > > > > > > > > + + > > > > > > + + + + + > > > > > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > > > > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > > > > > + + + + + > > > > > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
