wah thnx berat pak sb pak buat info nya
saya jadi gatel pengen ambil point2 penting nya nih, gpp ya pak
:D...hehehehe
* Things are not too bad on the ground here.
* Our macro stress test finds *Asia crisis resistance to be better
than ever*.
* Crude oil hovering around US$80 also potentially allows the
*government to save around US$14bn spent on fuel subsidies *and
I*ndonesia is set to become a rice exporter (potentially 2 million
tonnes) in 2009.*
* In fact, Indonesian corporates are in *much better shape* to
endure these headwinds compared to a decade ago during the Asian
financial crisis. There is* minimal corporate forex debt and net
gearing under CLSA coverage*
* The *consumer sector is still looking healthy*. While *retailers
in the developed world are facing amnesic growth prospects*,
Indonesia growth prospects remain *strong*.
* most Indonesian companies have* low leverage and high liquidity*.
* Key points from the report: *
· Investment cycle in Indonesia *absorbed more liquidity from the
banking system. *
· Overall, Indonesian companies have *little gearing.*
· Net debt to equity ratio forecast: 18.5% end of 2008, to fall to 13%
in 2009 & 6% in 2010.
· In aggregate companies have Rp123tn in current assets, of which Rp53tn
(43%) comprised cash or near cash assets as of June
· Indonesian bluechips are more than capable of meeting ST liabilities
*orang bule proffesional aja opini nya begini optimis...lha orang
kita....???*
citi grup di global equity strategies tgl 30 september 2008, yang agak
konservatif aja memvaluasi *proyeksi EPS indo 2009*,tertinggi no 2 di
dunia di bawah swiss
-piss ach-
Hehehe
SbudianaYCS wrote:
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: SbudianaC [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> <mailto:sbudiana%40cbn.net.id>]
> Sent: 17 Oktober 2008 0:02
> To: '[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> <mailto:%27junior_Trader%40yahoogroups.com>';
> '[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> <mailto:%27bei-investorclub-jkt%40yahoogroups.com>';
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:Wan_AL%40yahoogroups.com>;
> '[EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:%27meta-noia%40yahoogroups.com>'
> Subject: Re : CLSA on Indonesia today: Low corporate gearings and
> healthy liquidity
>
> FYI,
>
> Good morning. While global capital markets are roiling, it is worth
> pointing out what's going on in Indonesia. Things are not too bad on the
> ground here.
> The Central Bank's simplified statutory reserve requirement (SRR). This
> should help domestic liquidity. Crude oil hovering around US$80 also
> potentially allows the government to save around US$14bn spent on fuel
> subsidies and Indonesia is set to become a rice exporter (potentially 2
> million tonnes) in 2009.
> In fact, Indonesian corporates are in much better shape to endure these
> headwinds compared to a decade ago during the Asian financial crisis.
> There is minimal corporate forex debt and net gearing under CLSA coverage
> is forecasted to reach 13% in 2009. Today, Nick Cashmore points outs
> today (see attached) that Indo corporates have low leverage and high
> liquidity – Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ), Ace Hardware (ACES IJ), and
> Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) score high on liquidity positions (further comment
> below).
> The consumer sector is still looking healthy. While retailers in the
> developed world are facing amnesic growth prospects, Indonesia growth
> prospects remain strong. Home improvement retailer Ace Hardware reports
> that its September YTD sales grew by 48% YoY with 12.7% same-store-sales
> (SSG). In fact, business is so good that they opened up an additional two
> stores last week in greater Jakarta (successful openings), on top of the
> company's aggressive +40% space expansion already done this year. Low-end
> retailer Ramayana (RALS IJ) also reported respectable Sept performance.
> Sept YTD sales grew 35% with SSG 26% (boosted by the Ramadan effect).
> Ramayana benefits from the stronger ex-Java regional economies which
> already contributes 44% of the company's gross profit.
>
> Research Today: liquidity ratios in Indonesia
> Nick Cashmore looked at liquidity ratios in Indonesia and found out that
> most Indonesian companies have low leverage and high liquidity.
>
> Key points from the report:
>
> · Investment cycle in Indonesia absorbed more liquidity from the
> banking system.
> · Overall, Indonesian companies have little gearing.
> · Net debt to equity ratio forecast: 18.5% end of 2008, to fall to
> 13% in 2009 & 6% in 2010.
> · In aggregate companies have Rp123tn in current assets, of which
> Rp53tn (43%) comprised cash or near cash assets as of June
> · Indonesian bluechips are more than capable of meeting ST
> liabilities
> · No ST liabilities due within a year: UNVR, PTBA, and ACES
> · PGAS shows $12.70 in CF and cash for every $ in ST liabilities.
> · Ramayana (RALS IJ) and commodity producers are similarly well
> placed with very defensive balance sheets.
>
>
> (Embedded image moved to file: pic30568.gif)
>
>
> News Headlines/Others:
>
>
> Revision in the 2009 state budget assumptions. The govt and parliament
> agreed to set the country's benchmark interest rate and inflation in the
> 2009 state budget at 7.5% (from 8.5%) and 6.2% (from 6.5%) respectively.
> The revision to the economic growth assumption is still under
> deliberation, but likely to be lower than the initial assumption of 6.1%.
> Oil price assumption: set at US$80/barrel, lower than the govt's proposal
> of US$85.
>
> Auto rejection limits remain 10% today. There were talks to change the
> limits but as of now, it seems to stay at 10% for today.
>
> Medco (MEDC IJ) prepares US$100mn to buy back 10% shares. Earlier this
> year (15 May 08) MEDC has obtained approval to buy back 3.29% shares. Up
> to 8 Oct 08, MEDC had bought back 2.19% stakes.
>
> Bakrie group still suspended. The 6 Bakrie names (BUMI, BNBR, ELTY, UNSP,
> ENRG, BTEL) still suspended until further notice.
>
> Adaro (ADRO IJ) still suspended. ADRO, which was suspended yesterday,
> will
> also remain suspended today.
>
>
>
>
> Key Indicators:
>
>
> JCI: 1,555.97, +94.09 (+6.44%), T/O USD 189.91 mil, YTD: -43.33%
>
> ADR:
> TLKM US$30.65 = IDR7,482
> ISAT US$29.50 = IDR5,761
>
>
> After 2 positive days, some consolidation might be necessary. The
> Exchange said they are reviewing the 10% individual stock trading
> limits, and might
> raise them to 15%, but not as of yet. Volumes were negatively impacted
> yesterday as about 50 stocks were locked limit up, and not much trading
> went on after that for the remainder of the day. The Exchange also has
> not
> put back on the pre-opening-auction period yet.
>
>
>
> Chart of the Day: macro stress test, re-assuring
>
> Our economics team applied a Macro stress test to Asian economies in
> current environment. Our macro stress test finds Asia crisis
> resistance to be better than ever. A pass rate of less than 50% on our
> stress test would
> indicate significant credit risk. The results are re-assuring, with all
> Asian economies aside from Vietnam scored pass rates of 67% or higher.
> This indicates greater resilience and minimal risk of a financial crisis.
> Please let us know if you want the report.
>
> (Embedded image moved to file: pic19281.gif)
>
>
>
> Did you know that?
> Indonesia may export as much as 2 million tons of rice in 2009, the most
> in at least 50 years, as productions increases because of better seeds.
> Indonesia has been a steady importer in the past 50 years but this year
> the country will produce about 38 million tons and consume about 36
> million tons, while government stockpiles stand at 1.5 million tons. In
> 2009 the country may grow about 40 million tons, consume about 36 million
> tons and increase stockpiles by 2 million tons. The Agriculture Minister
> also reports that he expects Indonesia to achieve self sufficiency in
> corn this year. Corn output may climb to 14.9 million tons this year
> from 13.3
> million tons in 2007.
>
> Best regards,
> Wuddy Warsono, CFA
> CLSA Indonesia | Head of Sales
> Phone: (62-21) 573 9460
> Toll Free - HK: 800 938 000
> Toll Free - SIN: 800 621 1104
> Toll Free - US: 800 460 2581
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:wuddy.warsono%40clsa.com>
> (Embedded image moved to file: pic07085.jpg)
>
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