goei siauw hong bilang ihsg bisa ke 700. maybe right, maybe wrong. gw mau coba2 mulai start shopping besok buat investment portfolio. dikit2 dulu, mulai dari bumn. kalau betul ihsg ke bottom 700, mudah2an average cost gw di 900-1000, not bad buat hold 2 tahunan. reasoning gw: - respon bank sentral n otoritas moneter di semua negara rata2 jauh lebih cepat dibanding krisis/resesi sebelum2 ini. - insiders mulai buy back. banyak rich listers versi forbes mulai buy back saham2 mereka. - crash di stock market lebih banyak fearnya daripada fundamental. - penduduk dunia tambah terus, sementara supply stagnan. katanya tahun 2015 penduduk dunia bisa 8 milyar?? - us bentar lagi ganti leadership. - bentar lagi musim dingin. masa sih minyak gak rebound. - govt indo butuh duit buat apbn 2009. masa sih gak minta dividen bumn 100%. - tahun depan pemilu indo. may god bless me hehehe.
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "bagoesnarayana" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Banyak yg tanya seberapa buruk krisis kali ini dan berapa lama? > > Orang sakit banyaknya maunya kl udah ke dokter suntik dan pulang > langsung ke biskup bisa nonton. Di Medure kalau ke tuan doktor mesti > sontek dua kale baru paten sembuhh cepat tak eya.. > > Untuk perbandingan ini menarik utk disimak dari Wall Street Journal, spt > biasa biar koran beken, tetap baca dng seciwit garam dan merica: > > October 25, 2008, 11:02 am > <http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/10/25/how-bad-is-it-going-to-get/> > How Bad Is It Going to Get? > For most of 2008 the the question has been, "Will the U.S. > experience a recession?" Now that most economists agree a downturn > has arrived, the question has shifted to: "How bad will is it going > to get?" > > Economists > <http://pull.jpmorgan-research.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/16240-563F/62679\ > 303/GDW102408.pdf> at J.P. Morgan Chase say it will be worse than the > past two relatively mild (1990-91, 2001) recessions. And the recovery > will be painfully slow, too. > > "From the perspective of wealth losses and declines in real > consumption, the current recession is likely to prove more severe than > any of the previous ten in the post World War II era," they said. > > Here's how J.P. Morgan's forecast for the recession of 2008 > compares to other post-World War II recessions. The chart is sortable by > year the recession began, the decline over the two worst quarters, the > total peak-to-trough decline in GDP, the rise in the unemployment rate > over the recession, the number of quarters in outright recession and the > number of quarters that registered slow growth just click the > column headers to re-sort. Phil Izzo > > Comparing Past Recessions Start of Recession Worst two quarters > Change peak-to-trough Change in unemployment rate* Quarters in > recession Quarters of slow growth 1948 -3.5 -1.7 3.3 4 0 1953 > -4.3 -2.6 3.4 4 5 1957 -7.4 -3.2 3.4 3 8 1960 -2.3 -0.5 1.9 3 4 > 1969 -1.3 -0.2 2.6 4 10 1973 -3.1 -3.1 4.1 5 8 1980 -4.3 -2.2 2.0 2 > 7 1981 -5.6 -2.6 3.3 5 7 1990 -2.5 -1.3 2.4 2 11 2001 -0.1 0.3 2.2 > 3 11 2008 (forecast) -3.0 -1.6 3.1 3 12 Source: J.P. Morgan Chase > *Change over the entire period in which the output gap was falling. In > all cases, this period is longer than the official recession period. >
