Kalau saya setuju sekali dengan ide tersebut, apalagi ada banyak ahli yang ikut
control. Selama analis tersebut bertanggung jawab ke orang yang credibilitasnya
terjamin, umumnya hasil analisanya juga akan lebih dapat dipertanggung jawabkan.
Sebenarnya saya bermimpi untuk bisa mempunyai portfolio saham seperti article
dibawah ini, dimana saham2nya adalah saham di Indonesia.
Menurut para senior dan pakar di OB, kira-kira mungkin ga yah, kita membangun
suatu HYP yang bisa untuk dikeep forever, atau minimal 20 tahun?
Build a High-Yield Portfolio
By Todd Wenning
October 22, 2008
Comment (7)
49
Recommendations
Buy 10 to 15 high-yielding large-cap stocks
today and hold them -- forever.
Yes, you read that right
That's the
basic philosophy of the High-Yield Portfolio (HYP) strategy put forth
by our friends at Motley Fool U.K.back in 2000.
At first glance, the whole idea sounds a bit crazy. I mean, buying stocks with
the intention of never selling them comes off as, well, perhaps a bit naive.
After a closer look, though, the HYP strategy offers some distinct advantages.
But first, let's take that closer look
So how does the HYP strategy choose its 10 to 15 stocks? It chooses only:
Large-cap stocks,With a history of increasing dividends,Relatively low debt
levels, andSufficient dividend coverage,That hail from diverse industries.
The original UK HYP, for example, picked 15 stocks from the FTSE 100 index,
including Rio Tinto and Scottish & Newcastle.
The only permissible reasons to sell or remove a stock from the HYP
portfolio are (1) the dividend is halted or cut, or (2) the company is
acquired.
All about growth
Like other
dividend-focused investing, the HYP strategy relies on the power of
dividends to strengthen overall returns. Dividends, after all, have
made up more than a third of the S&P 500's return since 1926.
But what sets the HYP strategy apart is its focus on growing
dividends. By buying companies with a history of raising their dividend
payouts, you're betting that they'll continue to raise those payouts --
providing you with an ever-increasing income stream.
The point of the HYP isn't capital appreciation, although that's
usually an added bonus. The HYP is all about those growing dividends,
aiming to provide an annual income that exceeds that of the current
10-year Treasury note (currently yielding 3.6%).
Best of all, that income is flexible. Investors far from retirement
can reinvest the dividends to increase their holdings, thus multiplying
their payouts. Investors close to or in retirement can use the payouts as
income that supports their standard of living. But because the income grows,
it has the potential to beat inflation. And when you add that to the
capital appreciation, you can end up sitting on a pretty penny.
OK, but do you really mean "never sell"?
Now,
this idea of intentionally not selling seems counterintuitive. At some
point, perhaps when the stock has reached our price target, doesn't it
make sense to sell and take the capital gain?
According to the HYP's original author, Stephen Bland, the strategy demands a
different perspective:
High yield portfolio (HYP) shares are not bought with the intention
of selling. Quite the reverse. They are bought to hold for income and
continue to be held until such time as it might very occasionally suit
the investor to sell, perhaps never. Selling is not the reason for
buying, unlike value trading, where selling is the only reason for
buying.
It takes some getting used to, but this passive approach prevents
you from overtrading and making poor valuation decisions -- while
simultaneously providing you with a growing income. Best of all? You
don't have to worry about daily market fluctuations.
Between November 2000, when the original HYP was started near the
height of the U.K. market, and December 2007, it returned 68% capital
appreciation without dividend reinvestment (while the FTSE 100 lost 8.3%), and
included a 5.9% annual dividend yield to boot. What's more, the dividends grew
29% in just seven years.
Now for the U.S. version
So what would a
current U.S. version of the HYP portfolio look like? To compile the
list below, I followed the HYP methodology and selected a diverse group
of 15 S&P 500 stocks:
Capitalized at more than $10 billion,With a strong history of increasing
dividends,An above-market dividend yield,And sufficient ability to service
current debt.
Here are a few of those stocks.
Company
Dividend Yield (ttm)
Nucor (NYSE: NUE)
3.5%
Sysco Corp. (NYSE: SYY)
3.4%
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY)
5.5%
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)
4.1%
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS)
3.5%
Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC)
3.4%
Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI)
7.3%
Source: Yahoo! Finance.
A diversified portfolio of high-yielding stocks can create a pretty
well-protected annual income stream. For example, with a $10,000
investment in an HYP with an average yield of 4.5% -- very achievable
in this market -- an investor could expect around $450 a year in
dividends -- for now. But because each of the stocks in an HYP has a
history of increasing their payouts every year or so, that dividend
figure should continue to grow (ideally 5% annualized, or more),
providing the HYP investor with ever-expanding income to reinvest or
live off of.
--- Pada Kam, 30/10/08, jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> menulis:
Dari: jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Topik: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kira2 Indikator apa yah bisa dipake ambil keputusan?
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Tanggal: Kamis, 30 Oktober, 2008, 8:58 AM
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Dean Earwicker"
<dean.earwicker@ ...> wrote:
>
> Saya pikir kapasitas analis fundamental adalah menjelaskan prospek
bisnis
> kedepan berserta valuasi (target price) wajar mengikuti asumsi
*kondisi *pasar
> dan regional SAAT ITU.
>
> Eh gak taunya ada acara Lehman dibangkrutin. Bakrie nyangkut di
repo. Minyak
> jeblos. Regional crash. Suku bunga indo malah naik. Kondisi2 spt
ini yang
> susah diprediksi. Akhirnya analis harus revisi target akibat
*kondisi *pasar.
> Terutama dengan kisruh reponya bakrie, mengundang asumsi2 dan
spekulasi2
> akan CA selanjutnya.
>
> Kalau kasih analisa entry/exit seperti maksud mbah dibawah, l*ebih
tepat
> analis teknikal *kali mbah. Dan thank's God kita punya pakar2nya
disini
> hehe..Mudah2an BUMI jadi BUMN.. bisa ngga ya..
>
> Lagipula yang babak belur bukan cuma BUMI doang, PTBA, AALI, TLKM,
ANTM,
> sampe bintang bokep HEXA, LTLS, JPRS semuanya dibejek-bejek. .
krisis di BEI
> tidak fundamental, lebih ke money flow dan sentimen. PIG.
>
> Soal analis independen, saya sih setuju2 aja. Malah saya pikir
baiknya mbah
> bikin website analisa research, yang untuk baca perlu bayar 100rb.
Untuk
> luar negeri, saya sering nemuin analis2 independen, tapi kalau buat
indo
> belon.
Bikin website seperti investdata sekarang masih bisa embah handle
dan embah kasih gratis lagi.
Tapi kalo udah analisa detail dan nyari data buat proyeksi
kedepan, embah engga sanggup karena ini perlu waktu banyak.
Kalo embah bisa kerjain sendiri, embah tentunya engga ngusulin
hire analis. Untuk embah sendiri embah lebih prefer bayar ama
orang lain kalo ada website valuasi untuk saham Indonesia yg murah,
karena ngurusin website itu sangat buang waktu...
>
> Contoh aje:
> http://www.spelmanr esearch.com/
> http://finance. yahoo.com/ q/rr?s=TLK
> http://www.cohenres earch.com/
> http://www.investar s.com/
>
> Pokonya saya dukung deh.
>
> Regards,
> DE
>
>
> Pada 30 Oktober 2008 00:46, jsx_consultant
> <jsx-consultant@ ...>menulis:
>
> > Kalo menurut analisa embah sendiri: Disini sang analis gagal
total,
> > alasannya:
> >
> > - Gerakan grafik BUMI selaras dengan gerakan saham coal luar
> > negri, jadi tanpa bawa bawa soal bakrie pun, memang saham
> > coal diseluruh dunia turun BARENG BARENG secara SERAGAM.
> > - Kesalahan kedua, analis2 TERLAMBAT mengupgrade TP BUMI atau
> > terlambat memberi WARNING adanya kemungkinan BUMI sampe
> > BABAK BELUR.
> > - Ketiga, kenapa TARGET BUMI diupdate sesudah harganya HANCUR
> > DULUAN, mengapa BEGITU terlambat. Dan ini menimbulkan
> > kecurigaan adanya ANALIS YG TIDAK INDEPENDENT. itulah
> > yg bikin pemikiran kita hire Analis yg DEPENDENT untuk OB.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Dean Earwicker"
> > <dean.earwicker@ > wrote:
> > >
> > > Mnrt saya pribadi sih, kalau bumi bukan punya bakrie (yang
sahamnya
> > di
> > > repo), 8000 sih target wajar. <5000 itu udah diskon, dengan
catatan
> > KPC dan
> > > Arutmin gak dijual (siapa tahu, namanya orang BU apa aja
dikerjain).
> > >
> > > Secara fundamental 'tok, BUMI has a good prospect, walau kita
tahu
> > harga
> > > saham gak serta-merta ikut. Ada faktor X disini, yaitu TRUST,
yang
> > kemudian
> > > menyeret saham-saham satu grup spt elty, btel, unsp, dsb. Mana
ada
> > analis
> > > berani kasih target unsp 200 perak.
> > >
> > > Masalahnya corp. action yang "gila" dan "remang-remang" ini yang
> > bikin
> > > analis dan investor pusing. Even daisy dan kang ocoy pun gak
mungkin
> > > factor-in informasi yang memang SENGAJA ditutupin oleh emiten.
> > Okelah bisnis
> > > bagus, laporan ciamik, prospek ada, tapi pemiliknya akrobat
terus,
> > ya gimana
> > > orang mau percaya..
> > >
> > > Maka munculah pendekar-pendekar yang bisa bertarung di
keremangan,
> > antara
> > > lain Pak Oen, dan Elaine.
> > >
> > > Si Daisy saya lihat cukup independen terlepas dari siapa yang
hire
> > dia, krn
> > > dia yang pertama downgrade ANTM dulu waktu harganya masih 4550.
> > Mbah pasti
> > > inget. Sejuta topan badai muncul di milis, toh akhirnya dia
> > terbukti benar.
> > > (malah antm kebablasan sampe <1000)
> > >
> > > Kalau *ternyata *gonjang-ganjing repo ini "aman terkendali",
BUMI
> > bukan
> > > tidak mungkin jadi leader lagi, siapapun pemiliknya nanti. Tapi
> > kalau
> > > berantakan, ya wasalam.
> > >
> > > Faktor selebihnya ya sesuai posting saya sebelumnya, smart money
> > ngejar
> > > Amerika dulu. Mau nyoba jadi orang "waras" diantara orang gila
> > malah kapiran
> > > jadinya.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > > DE
> > >
> > > Pada 30 Oktober 2008 00:08, jsx_consultant
> > > <jsx-consultant@ >menulis:
> > >
> > > > Oke lah, mungkin kita engga sanggup bayar analyst doing FULL
> > DETAIL
> > > > analysis, tapi at least dia bisa FILTER rekomendasi analis yg
> > bikin
> > > > target ketinggian seperti nangkep analis bego yg bikin
prediksi
> > BUMI
> > > > 8000.
> > > >
> > > > Kalo analis yg kita hire bisa bilang itu target ketinggian
dengan
> > > > alasanya yg kita bisa ngerti, mungkin KORBAN BUMI dimilis OB
> > > > engga terlalu banyak...
> > > >
> > > > Mungkin member disini ada yg kasih warning dari segi technical
> > > > tapi karena target 8000 ITULAH yg bikin orang celaka.
> > > >
> > > > Masasih, analis 10j/bln engga bisa filter BUMI 8000
ketinggian ?.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Dean Earwicker"
> > > > <dean.earwicker@ > wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Mbah, untuk analis fundamental independen minimal kita harus
> > modalin
> > > > > bloomberg terminal dan CEIC <http://www.ceicdata .com/>, itu
aja
> > > > biaya
> > > > > langganan bisa 20 juta lebih perbulan. Analisa gak cuma dari
> > lapkeu
> > > > tapi
> > > > > juga kondisi makro, dan statistik industri dan regional
lainnya.
> > > > Misalnya
> > > > > mau buat analisa sektor perbankan, kan gak cuma baca lapkeu
> > doang,
> > > > banyak
> > > > > faktor lain yang mesti dikalkulasi.
> > > > >
> > > > > Biaya riset itu mahal mbah, karena selain punya data
lengkap,
> > juga
> > > > harus
> > > > > visit ke emiten ybs. Diskusi dengan CEO nya, tanya visi
kedepan
> > mo
> > > > ngapain,
> > > > > visit ke lokasi, lihat pabriknya, lihat proyeknya, dsb.
Seperti
> > > > mbak Daisy,
> > > > > minimal dia harus nongkrong di refinerynya KPC, lihat
mesinnya
> > > > jalan apa
> > > > > engga. Foto-foto, interview dengan kepala proyek, dsb.
> > > > >
> > > > > Setelah visit, sedikit banyak mempengaruhi estimasi
kedepannya,
> > > > jadi gak
> > > > > berdasarkan angka2 aja. Analis juga tau angka bisa dimaenin.
> > Kalo
> > > > disuruh
> > > > > nyari data dari warnet mah atuh kasian analisnya... yang ada
> > > > browsing
> > > > > indowet melulu..heheheh
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards,
> > > > > DE
> > > > >
> > > > > Pada 29 Oktober 2008 23:23, jsx_consultant
> > > > > <jsx-consultant@ >menulis:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Ini milis obrolan kambing atau ayam... hehehe...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Gimana pak DE,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Usulan cari Analis Fundamental dari pendapat pak DE
gimana ?.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Terus terang, kita disini belum selevel ama anlis prof.
> > > > > > Ingat engga kita ngomong soal EBITDA aja, masih pada
bingung,
> > > > > > kacuali pak Armando atau Kang Ocoy, yg lainnya cuman
bengong.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Harus kita akui, kita masih lemah...
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "t_bumi" <t_bumi@>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Dean Earwicker"
> > > > > > > <dean.earwicker@ > wrote:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > .. dan invest di kambing, karena:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 1. Gak mungkin di repo
> > > > > > > > 2. Gak ada ada derivatifnya. .. (ada sih, sop kambing,
> > > > tongseng)
> > > > > > > > 3. Bikin higher high sampe desember
> > > > > > > > 4. COGS relatif flat (rumput, ongkos ngangon), growth
> > stabil
> > > > > > selama
> > > > > > > > bandotnya sehat
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Resiko:
> > > > > > > > 1. Kompetitor punya kambing lebih ganteng
> > > > > > > > 2. Kena anthrax atau keselek paku
> > > > > > > > 3. Dicolong orang
> > > > > > > > 4. Lebaran haji di undur.. (eh gak mungkin ya..)
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > wes ngomong apa sih gw.. heheh..
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > > DE
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > sip : tbumi
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Kelebihan pelihara ayam :
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > - modal kecil
> > > > > > > - Waktu singkat utk panen uang
> > > > > > > - Bertelur
> > > > > > > - bila tak bertelur lagi, maka daging bisa dimasak dan
> > tulangnya
> > > > > > > bisa dijadikan soup ayam.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ------------ --------- --------- ------
> > > > > >
> > > > > > + +
> > > > > > + + + + +
> > > > > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
> > > > > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
> > > > > > + + + + +
> > > > > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ------------ --------- --------- ------
> > > >
> > > > + +
> > > > + + + + +
> > > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
> > > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
> > > > + + + + +
> > > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------ --------- --------- ------
> >
> > + +
> > + + + + +
> > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
> > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
> > + + + + +
> > + +Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
___________________________________________________________________________
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