In 1980, Paul Ehrlich, the author of _The Population Bomb_, bet Julian Simon that prices of metal commodities would increase by 1990. Ehrlich thought that the rapidly growing human population would soon exceed the life supporting capacity of planet Earth. Simon argued that improvements in technology would increase the capacity of Earth's resources so that shortages and higher prices would not occur.
Ehrlich lost the bet. The prices of all five metals he picked were lower in 1990 than they were in 1980. In seven of the last eight years, including 2007 during which world grain production reached an all time high, world grain consumption has exceeded production. World grain stocks are falling, and grain prices are now rising rapidly. See Chapter 2 data at: http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/PB3/data.htm There have recently been reports of regional shortages of fertilizer, and of farmers hoarding fertilizer to ensure adequate stocks for the next growing season. There are also reports of farmers withholding rice from the market in order to sell at even higher prices in the future. It is easier to manipulate prices during times of tight supply. All is not bleak. One of the most encouraging things happening in the world these days is the One Laptop Per Child project. Why is that encouraging? What good does Internet access do for a child who does not have food to eat? In the marketplace, a penniless child has zero demand. It doesn't matter how great the need might be. In a monetary economy, having zero money means having zero demand. Suppose a petition was placed on the Internet to use the world's grain to feed children instead of using it to fatten cattle before the slaughter, and instead of using it to produce ethanol fuel for fat SUVs. And, suppose we let children in developing countries use their XO laptops to sign their names to this petition. Would that have any impact on the distribution of the world's grain? Should it? vanguard, John Kintree 4043 Delor Street St. Louis, MO 63116 314-351-7454 http://home.swbell.net/jkintree/islt/ _______________________________________________ Olpc-open mailing list [email protected] http://lists.laptop.org/listinfo/olpc-open
