The wiki is not very talkative about this...
Ideally you'd need to read the PLN book.
Said briefly the confidence captures the spread of the second order
distribution over the true unknown probability. If the confidence is 1
the spread is null. If the confidence is 0 the spread is uniform, that
is we know nothing about the true probability.
The spread of the second order distribution shrinks as more evidence
accumulates, so it depends on the number of observations. There is a
function to translate the count N (number of observations) into confidence
c = N / (N + K)
so as you may see as the count increases, so does the confidence. This
function is rather arbitrary, it could be something else, like say 1 -
std-dev, or anything that is monotonous and has co-domain [0, 1], but it
has the advantage of being simple.
Hope it's clearer.
Nil
On 01/23/2017 03:14 PM, Apil Tamang wrote:
Hi All,
What would be the most intuitive (and generally applicable) way of
thinking about 'confidence' in the simple-truth-value system? I know
stv consists of a 'strength' and a 'confidence' part. The strength, if I
remember correctly is representative of the probability of that
statement being true. I'm just not sure how to think about the
confidence as a guiding metric ...
Thanks...
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