Hi, I just received this from a collegue in KwaZulu-Natal (North Eastern part of South Africa). As you can see, the analysis done so far have mostly produced obvious results (cholera <-> lack of clean water and good sanitation). Does any of you know of GIS modelling or research done on predicting risk areas for cholera, epidemic dysenteri, or similar? Pls communicate any ideas or references directly to Shannon Rushworth [EMAIL PROTECTED] Best Regards Calle ********************************************* Calle Hedberg 3 Pillans Road, 7700 Rosebank, SOUTH AFRICA Tel/fax (home): +27-21-685-6472; Cell: +27-82-853-5352 Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ********************************************* ----- Original Message ----- From: "RUSHWORTH SHANNON" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 8:10 AM Subject: Cholera analysis > Ladies and Gentlemen, > > The province of KwaZulu-Natal has recently (August 2000 - to present) been > plagued by cholera. The disease is spreading. Currently we are mapping the > new cases but would love to undertake more predictive modeling. > > I have developed a database linked to a GIS which can map the areas which > have positive cholera cases. The following attribute data has been > collected: > Institution where patient was seen > Age > Gender > Date of notification > Died (Yes/No) > Date of Death > Place (this is the spatial data that allows the GIS to do its thing) > > I have also looked at our census data and extracted area where people have > no toilet or/and use river, dam, stream or/and spring water - there appears > to be a strong correlation. What more can I do - some ideas would be > wonderful??? > > I have done some research and am struggling to find any predictive work - > obvious there is allot of work on mapping cholera... > > Any (all) suggestions would be most welcome! > > Best regards, > > Shannon Rushworth > Geographic Information Systems Unit > Informatics Section > KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health > Pietermaritzburg > South Africa > Tel +27 33 395 2394 > Fax +27 33 395 3207 > >
