On Tuesday 20 February 2007 07:03, Carlos E. R. wrote:
> The Tuesday 2007-02-20 at 06:51 -0600, Stevens wrote:
> > How can any outfit claim 100+ years reliability for any product that
> > hasn't existed for more than a few years?
>
> It is done by ageing tests. The item is subjected to stress, temperature
> extremes, vibrations, humidity, etc, to see how it behaves and make a
> durabilty prediction. They can be mistaken, but it is the best that can
> be done.
>
> For instance... have you seen in Ikea a demo of a drawer being closed
> and opened about once per two seconds, with a compressed air piston?
> Measuring the wear they can predict durability in years for normal
> ussage of a few operations per day.
>
> --
> Cheers,
>        Carlos E. R.

Sorry, old man, but you mistook my cynicism to be lack of knowledge.

Auto manufacturers try to predict how their interiors and their paints will 
last, too, but until both are subjected to the Texas sun they are only 
guessing. The North has salt that kills cars; in the South it is the sun. 
Only when they obtain empirical data can they be sure and that data takes 
a long time to gather. The same goes for optical media manufacturers. Any 
longevity rating is a SWAG, at best, which is the reason for my cynical 
view.

Fred

(SWAG = Scientific Wild Assed Guess)
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