Billie Walsh wrote:
Aaron Kulkis wrote:
Billie Walsh wrote:
Aaron Kulkis wrote:
Fred A. Miller wrote:
Gates Predicts End of the Keyboard in Final CES Keynote
Like most of his predictions, this too will be wrong.
Did you see what Microsoft calls "surface" at last years CES? The
demonstration was pretty cool.
And will fail miserably in a the real-world, where people do
things like put coffee-cups, magazines, and other assorted
items on their tables.
Luddite!
It's intended to have things put on it. It's a completely interactive
surface. Put your keys on the table. Someone else puts down a couple
magazines. You move things around to get your music going. Now your keys
are under a magazine. Next morning you can't find your keys. The house
computer knows they are on the coffee table under the November QST. Why?
Because it recognizes the magazine and your keys and can keep track of
whats where. Can't find yopur cheaters? The house computer knows you
left them on your desk under that manual you printed out last night.
Taken to another extreme. You put down your coffee cup and the "surface"
recognizes the need and heats the surface where the cup is sitting. Take
off you coffee cup and put down a glass of iced tea and it now cools
that spot.
Hahahahahahahah!
I'm sure such things are still a few years in the future
but............
It's a ridiculously stupid idea to think that this sort
of thing will be in a coffee-table in every one's home
At some point, if we don't destroy ourselves first or get hit by a
meteor, it won't be just the coffee table. Every flat, and probably
curved, surface will be interactive. TV built right into the wall
because the whole wall, or any part, is the screen. Move the couch and
recliner. Now the "screen" is on another wall. Make two or three screens
if you want. Watch five or six football games at the same time on
different parts of the wall. Put the same show on a wall in every room
in the house if you want.
Never count out technology. About a hundred years ago todays world would
have been completely inconceivable to most people. When Star Trek came
out it was beyond cutting edge. I now have a communicator laying on my
desk that is smaller and has more power and features that Kirk's
communicator. It's called a Motorola Razor. My car has more raw
computing power than the apollo capsule. My laptop has more computer
power than the space shuttle. Hell, the I-Pod probably has more computer
power than the space shuttle. Technology has been increasing
exponentially every few years for the past one hundred years. Why would
anyone expect that to change. Barring Armageddon of course.
People said the Wright brothers were "ridiculous" but Boing is getting
ready to unveil a one thousand (1000) passenger airliner. People said
that going to the moon was "ridiculous" but we have been there and could
be there to stay if the will was there. People used to say it was
"ridiculous" to think anyone would want/need a computer in their home.
How many do you have. We have five that run pretty much 24/7 and have
had as high as eight or ten at any given time.
The only thing that's "ridiculous" are the people that say something is
"ridiculous". My ol' gran-pappy used to say, "Can't never did anything."
It's the people that dare to dream that make things happen. Not the ones
that say everything is "ridiculous".
It's right up there with Clippy and BOB.
Then there's the Star Trek computer. Well.............maybe not quite
THAT computer but voice interface. I've never actually tried working
with it but I have seen demos of voice recognition software that were
WAY impressing. Of course these demos were done with people that were
used to the software and had spent the time to get it right. BUT, it's a
technology that IS possible and way easier than typing.
THEN, there's something that is still pretty much in the toy phase, but
looks like a REALLY neat toy. It's looks like an ink pen. You write on
paper then plug it into the computer and it puts what you wrote in a
document. I've seen it at Wal Mart at Christmas time. Sells for about
$80US. Name is "Fly...... " [ something ].
They've been on the market for several years now. That's an idea
that's actually useful and innovative.
I just can't quite turn loose with $80US for an "ink pen". No matter how
neat a toy it is.
It's actually a hand-held computer that operates through
the use of pen-like motions. The ink is only there to
assist the user -- the computer itself doesn't need it.
I wouldn't count out the keyboard just yet but there are technologies
out there that could go a long way towards moving it to the back of the
desk. Also wouldn't say that the keyboard will ever go completely away.
When the high tech stuff breaks the keyboard will still work.
And more than that, among someone who is skilled, it's
far more reliable than voice recognition ever will be.
Fingers don't have drawls, twangs, or other vocal accents.
Voice recognition software is still very much in it's infancy. For
people that work with it every day it can be VERY effective. The trick
right now is that you have to be one person and one computer every time.
BUT, that doesn't mean that it would be impossible to improve it to the
point where anyone could use it on any computer. Just that there hasn't
been any "need" to do the work to get it there. Right now it's kind of a
niche software.
And will be for a long time.
Watch the TV speech-to-text feed on any unscripted
conversation, such as a news show or a live conversation.
follow-ups set to the OT list.
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