OBSERVATIONS ON EUROPE, 2004 Dr. Sam Holliday (Draft of 5 Dec 04)
During 2004 I observed some disturbing changed in the Europe I remember from when I first lived in Germany and Italy during the 1950s. During the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s the changes I observed in Western Europe were mostly economic; there were only minor attitudinal differences between Americans and Europeans that would impact foreign policy considerations. Probably this was because Cold War threats made collective security appealing. However, while living for six weeks in Prague, Budapest, Zurich, the Netherlands, Belgium, and England during 2004 I observed significant attitudinal difference between Americans and Europeans on foreign policy issues. My observations are not based on polls or studies, and they lack the documentation of political science. They are my opinions. They are generalizations that have many exceptions, but they describe the current situation in Europe-as I saw it. Also, I am not alone. Jacques Barzum, Samuel Huntington, Francis Fukuyama, and Bernard Lewis have all noted similar trends and patterns. Attitudes That Shape Foreign Policy Europeans like Americans, American pop culture, and American things. They do not like American foreign policy. They consider it imperialistic. They claim President Bush is a "cowboy" that does not understand the nuances of international relations. He puts them off by his confident style. They believe the United States is prone to action and the use of force, rather than to negotiation and the use of diplomacy-because Americans lack historical perspective and have not suffered from war. They believe America has exaggerated the threat from Islamists. However, many of the Europeans political and intellectual elites reject American foreign policy because of envy and arrogance. They envy the military power of the U.S, and think they are more civilized. However, they are not willing to do what is necessary to regain their former glory and power. And, partially the rejection is a reflection of the cynicism, hedonism and lack of will of the European people. In some respects the attitudes noted are those of Hawks and Doves. The Hawk sees an enduring struggle between good and evil. The Hawk considers power and force essential to the achievement of stability, and stability a prerequisite for peace. The Hawk is a risk taker. The European elites consider President Bush a Hawk. On the other hand, the Dove believes that power and force are evil and should not be used to resolve disagreements. The Dove believes that all disputes should be resolved through dialogue, compromise, and the rule of law-and this is the only way to achieve peace. The Dove is a risk avoider. Many Americans consider European leaders Doves. That there will be debates between Hawks and Doves on the use of force is to be expected-such debates are eternal. Nevertheless, such debates tell much about a country. The Hawks prevail during the building stages of any polity, when national interests determine foreign policy decisions. Decline begins when there is a shift to an emphasis on comprise, caution, delay, collective security, and supranational organizations. In the final stage of decline the Doves shape foreign policy decisions. European Union Europeans are undecided about an ever-closer union under the European Union. Much of the current power of the EU is the result of what the elites have called "technical" changes that were done without the approval of the people. If popular consensus had been required these changes would not have been possible. Conformity to directives from Brussels is at odds with the growing diversity of views of the people. They increasingly long for their traditional national convictions. The states of "old" Europe (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia, etc.) are in decline. The nation-states that were built in the 17th, 18th, and 19th centuries are now either in the contentment or decay stages in the life cycle of political entities. They are no longer nations, which could have been symbolized by different loaves of bread (many ingredients blended into something unique-with a crust). They have become multicultural countries of individuals and factions seeking and enjoying the good life. Today they can be symbolized by antipastos (separate ingredients together, but not one). The states of the "new" Europe (Ireland, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, etc.) are still in the building stages of the historically inevitable cycle, yet their elites share many of the views of the elites of "old" Europe. Therefore, it is unlikely that these countries will survive as strong, purposeful nation-states. The political and intellectual elites in Europe are no longer interested in building nation-states. They want either a united Europe or world government. Some want the European Union to become a counterbalance to the U.S. in world affairs. Others want the United Nations to replace national sovereignty. European elites value welfare systems, social legislation, and group rights. Distribution of wealth has replaced national interests, duty, self-sufficiency, and rewards based on merit. Many of the elite associate peace and prosperity with the creation of the European Union. However, economic well-being is the result of increasing trade and rising prosperity. Many use the war in Iraq as an argument for why the EU should become a bulwark against the barbarism of the past. However, it can be argued that the war in Iraq is essential to prevent the barbarism of the future. Sacred and Secular Authority There is no religion to instill the values required during the building of a nation. Christianity no longer shapes the behavior of most Europeans, and no longer invigorates and elevates the mind. Christianity has been replaced by secular humanism, with its sympathy, compassion and feelings seeking the unthreatening and the pleasurable. Christian beliefs, institutions and buildings have become artifacts of the past. This contrasts with American culture, which still has basic religious concepts at its core even though there is a separation of church and state. On the other hand, large numbers of unassimilated Muslims now live in Europe, and even moderate Muslims are influenced by their religion. While they want to enjoy the benefits of Europe, they have no desire to build European nation-states. They have increasing been influenced by radical interpretations of the Koran and perceive Western imperialism. There is a growing sense of alienation. Tensions have increased. However, Europeans have been unable to defuse that tension or to integrate the Muslims into nation-states. The secular values of civic virtue, duty, patriotism, and loyalty to a nation are much weaker than they were in the past. Postmodern thought and materialism have destroyed the secular base of national identity. European marriage rate is at an all-time low, and the abortion rate is at an all-time high. If this continues there will fewer Europeans and more Muslims in Europe. The European economy is stagnant, and its welfare programs are expensive. European armed forces are weak and they are unable to project military power abroad. Moreover, the people lack their former will. Today, secular ideals are unable to be the foundation of strong, purposeful nation-states, since most citizens are no longer willing to place their lives, futures, and honor at risk for a nation. Perceived Threats Under American military protection Europeans have enjoyed six decades of peace and ever increasing freedom and prosperity. They want to extend this era. However, they also want to replace the use of force in world affairs with negotiations, compromise, a new version of international law, and universal human rights. They want disputes throughout the world to be peacefully resolved-and for military forces to be transformed into peacekeepers. Europeans do not recognize that the threat of the Third Jihad-from a small fraction of all Muslims-is as great as the threats during World War II and the Cold War. The have been unable to counter the millions of Muslims now in Europe that sympathize with militant causes. They do not realize that if the Third Jihad is not stopped now there will be a clash of civilizations in the future which will make the death, destruction and suffering of the 1st and 2nd Jihads pale in comparison. They do not recognize that Western Civilization-their gift to us-- itself is now endangered. If this continues the countries of "old" Europe will soon be in the final stage of decline. The Future On 2 November 2004 in Amsterdam an Islamist shot and stabbed Theo van Gogh, because he had made a film critical of how Muslims treat women. This incident was a wake up call for much of Europe and it might bring changes in attitudes and threat perception. Europe must decide how to handle it large Muslim population. Europeans pride themselves on civilized ways, their tolerance of diverse cultures, and the expansion of human rights, but their old ways are not likely to provide protection from the Third Jihad. It was Western Civilization, the nation-state, and nationalism that made Europe the most powerful region on earth during the 18th and 19th centuries. It is difficult to see how Europeans can approach that status in the future. Also, there is no indication that Europeans are prepared to take the difficult steps necessary to reverse the effects of postmodernism. Of course, it is possible for Europe to reverse its decline-but it is not likely. (Draft of 5 Dec 04) - - - - - - - - - - - - - Copyright C 2004 Armiger Cromwell Center, 1035 Fearrington, Pittsboro, NC 27312. << [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> Permission is granted to forward this by e-mail to friends or colleagues, "on a fair use basis". For reprint permission contact Armiger Cromwell Center. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Make a clean sweep of pop-up ads. Yahoo! Companion Toolbar. Now with Pop-Up Blocker. Get it for free! http://us.click.yahoo.com/L5YrjA/eSIIAA/yQLSAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. 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