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The Real Threat of Violence in Mexico City December 27, 2004 1545 GMT Summary Mexico City's governor has discredited an intelligence report allegedly written by his public security chief that links a small militant group from Guerrero state to crimes in the capital. Although the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) militant group exists, and may be proselytizing politically in Mexico City's slums, the group does not have the urban tactical capabilities to engage in politically motivated violence. Mexico City residents and visitors face far greater threats from ordinary criminals and corrupt cops than from EPR militants. Analysis Mexican Federal District Gov. Manuel Lopez Obrador has denied a report in the Mexico City daily Reforma that says cells of the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) militant group are operating in Mexico City, saying there is "no evidence" of such activity. Separately, Public Security Secretary Joel Ortega denied that his office had written a 21-page report -- on which the Reforma article allegedly was based -- claiming that the EPR is actively recruiting and raising funds in Mexico City's poor slums, and has staged bank robberies and kidnappings in the capital. Federal District chief prosecutor Bernardo Batiz said "not a single crime" in Mexico City has been attributed to the EPR. Lopez Obrador, Ortega and Batiz stopped short of claiming the Reforma report is false. Reforma managing editors said the newspaper stands by its Dec. 22 report. It is possible that the alleged report is, in fact, a real official document prepared in secret by the federal district's public security secretariat. However, its assertion that the EPR is involved in violent criminal activities in the state of Mexico and the federal district likely is inaccurate. EPR forces do not directly threaten residents and visitors in Mexico City. The real threat of violent crime comes from ordinary criminals, professional kidnappers and bank robbers that flourish thanks to the incapacity of an inefficient, undermanned, poorly commanded and frequently corrupt police force. The alleged Public Security Secretariat document reportedly was prepared several days after two undercover police officers were beaten and burned to death in a poor Mexico City neighborhood by an angry mob that mistook the police officers for child kidnappers. The report makes no mention of this particular incident, although some news media had hinted that police officers in the area had the EPR under surveillance in the area at the time. According to Reforma, the report states that the EPR's presence has been detected in eight Federal District municipalities and seven municipalities in the state of Mexico. The Federal District municipalities reportedly include Iztapalapa, Gustavo Madero, Xochimilco, Alvaro Obregon, Tlalpan, Magdalena Contreras, Cuajimalpa and also Tlahualc, where the two police officials were murdered Nov. 23. The Mexico state municipalities are Nezahualcoyotl, Ecatepec, Naucalpan, Tlalnepantla, Ixtapaluca, Chimalhuacan and Los Reyes. The report also states that the EPR is raising funds by carrying out ransom kidnappings and bank robberies in the Federal District. However, Batiz emphatically dismissed any connection between the EPR and crimes such as kidnapping and bank robbery in Mexico City. These crimes, he said, involve "common criminals that start hijacking vehicles, assaulting people and then ascend to kidnapping. We have not found any link between these crimes and any armed guerrilla groups. Lopez Obrador and his leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) are seen as leading contenders to win the presidency of Mexico in the 2006 national elections. President Vicente Fox's National Action Party (PAN) and the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) have a strong interest in undermining Lopez Obrador's electoral prospects. Between now and the 2006 elections both the PAN and PRI repeatedly will seek to bring Lopez Obrador's political star down by linking him to corruption or portraying him as a weak leader. Confirming the EPR's active presence in the federal district could be pitched as a sign of weakness that renders Lopez Obrador unfit for the presidency. This may explain why Lopez Obrador led the charge to discredit and dismiss the alleged report prepared by his own public security chief. The EPR is the military wing of the Democratic Popular Revolutionary Party (PDPR), a small regional militant organization based in the southern state of Guerrero. The EPR officially announced its existence in June 1996 in the community of Aguas Blancas in Guerrero, where it declared war against the country's ruling economic and political elites and called for an armed Marxist-Leninist revolution and the creation of a centrally planned socialist state. However, the EPR is not a new revolutionary movement in Mexico. The EPR was originally founded in 1964 in Guerrero, during the early years of the Cuban Revolution. It initially emerged as an armed response by poor landless peasants against wealthy local landowners and politicians in Guerrero state. However, although the EPR has killed close to two dozen people since mid-1996 and has conducted small-scale attacks in several southern and central states against military and police outposts, public buildings and power stations, it has never threatened Mexican national security. The EPR mainly is a very low-level threat in Guerrero state, where its armed actions have involved local landowners and political strongmen with ties to the opposition PRI, which ruled the country for seven decades until Fox became president in 2000. Its presence in such activities has been detected in at least eight states since 1996. This means it is possible that EPR activists are proselytizing politically in poor Mexico City slums. The group has been seeking for years to establish a political presence inside the country's capital region. However, the EPR does not currently have the manpower, weaponry, organization and tactical capability to conduct offensive operations against targets in Mexico City. It is even less likely that EPR cells are engaged in bank robberies and ransom kidnappings in the country's capital. Federal and local law enforcement officials in the Mexico state and the federal district are certain that professional criminals -- not armed political militants -- perpetrate the frequent kidnappings and bank robberies in Mexico City. These officials point out that the EPR is a rural-based insurgency, not an urban militant group. Stratfor agrees. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> $4.98 domain names from Yahoo!. Register anything. http://us.click.yahoo.com/Q7_YsB/neXJAA/yQLSAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. 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