At 4:14 PM -0500 1/27/05, OpinionJournal wrote: >The Shiites Are Coming >http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1399356,00.html > >London's Guardian notes one of the most important aspects of Sunday's >Iraqi elections: > >*** QUOTE *** > >For the first time in centuries, Shias are about to come into their own as >the rulers--or at least the politically dominant community--in a key Arab >country. . . . > >In the Arab world, except for Lebanon with its largely Christian >population, the rulers of all 22 states have traditionally hailed from the >orthodox Sunni majority. But until now that has included two countries, >Iraq and Bahrain, where, against the broader trend, Shias compose the >majority. . . . > >Arab regimes with Shia citizens, especially in the Gulf, perhaps have most >grounds for alarm, because, like Saddam, they have in varying degrees >discriminated against them. The quest for equal rights has been common to >Shias in every modern Arab state. > >*** END QUOTE *** > >One of the strangest arguments coming from the naysayers is that the Iraqi >elections will somehow be "illegitimate" if there's a low turnout among >Sunni Arabs, who make up some 20% of Iraq's population. > >Now, we're all for a big turnout among all Iraq's ethnic and religious >groups, and it may turn out that the Sunni boycott is overblown. Radio >Free Europe/Radio Liberty >http://www.rferl.org/specials/iraqelections/articles/sunnivote.asp >reports that although two theocratic Sunni parties are sitting out the >vote, "at least a dozen Sunni-led lists are registered on the ballot, >representing more mainstream--or more appropriately, more secular--Sunni >groups." > >The Guardian >http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1399358,00.html >reports from Tikrit that even some former Baathist generals are >enthusiastic about the election. One of them, Abdullah Hussein, predicts a >40% turnout in Saddam Hussein's erstwhile home province. > >Still, let's say the worst happens and a combination of terrorism and >boycotts succeeds in keeping all but a few Sunni Arabs away from the >polls. Would that really make the election illegitimate? Before you >answer, consider a thought experiment: Suppose that, when South Africa >held its first postapartheid election in 1994, Afrikaner turnout had been >depressed by similar measures. Would that have made the enfranchisement of >a long-oppressed majority any less a cause for celebration?
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