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U.S. signals lower profile in Iraq By Farah Stockman The Boston Globe Wednesday, February 16, 2005 Opposition to a government with Iran ties is said to lessen WASHINGTON As the victorious parties in Iraq's election conduct behind-the-scenes negotiations over key posts in the new government, the Bush administration has signaled that it plans to lower its profile in Iraq in the coming months. U.S. officials, who were keeping a close eye on the emerging candidates for president and prime minister, said on Monday they were prepared for a Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad that will be far friendlier toward Iran than any in recent history - and that will be likely to request a quieter, less obtrusive U.S. role. "That's what the elections were about," said a senior U.S. official who closely follows political developments in Iraq. No matter the outcome, the official said, "we're going to begin the process of getting out of Iraq." "The whole idea was to engage in divestiture," the official said, "but doing it in a way that another competent entity was involved." State Department officials were also bracing for the possibility that the newly elected parties would select a prime minister who does not have warm relations with the United States: namely, Ahmad Chalabi, a onetime Pentagon favorite who fell from grace after allegedly passing on sensitive information about the impending U.S. invasion of Iraq to Iran. He is one of three front-runners, along with two senior Shiite leaders, Adel Abdul Mahdi and Ibrahim al-Jaafari. "The administration is committed to us working with whoever," a State Department official said. U.S. officials and regional specialists said the administration's views had evolved significantly since the months after the March 2003 invasion, when U.S. officials planned for a long-term occupation and handpicked Iraq's governing assembly. At that point, many key U.S. figures were reluctant to embrace any Iraqi government that was dominated by Shiites with close ties to Iran. "I think there has been a lot of rethinking in the administration that a pro-Iranian outcome is no longer to be feared, but is good enough," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior analyst of Gulf affairs for the Congressional Research Service. "It may not be what they desired or wanted, but if it produces a stable situation, it is good enough." He said the U.S. government, particularly the Defense Department, was initially concerned about Shiite political parties and their closeness to Iran, which the U.S. considers a rogue state bent on producing nuclear weapons. But he said the instability in Iraq had caused them to accept that Iraq's majority Shiite population would elect Shiite politicians who had lived in exile in Iran during Saddam Hussein's rule and remained close to Iran's theocratic regime. Some U.S. officials said the Bush administration was now far more cautious about proposing solutions for Iraq's political problems. For example, U.S. officials have been trying for months to devise ways to increase the political participation of the Sunnis, the group that fell from power with the removal of Hussein and whose anger now fuels much of the resistance. U.S. officials offered to sponsor a Sunni political conference in Jordan last fall, and when Sunnis shunned that idea, some White House officials floated a plan to appoint a special envoy to the Sunnis. But neither proposal got off the ground. On Monday, the senior U.S. official said Americans would leave it to the new Iraqi government to figure out how to include disgruntled Sunnis in the new government. "That just underscores that we can't force this," he said. Michael Rubin, a former political adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq who is now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said the United States must scale down its profile in Iraq, play a less obtrusive role, and consider sending home some of the U.S. advisers. "We have got 3,000 people inside the Green Zone," Rubin said. "They are used to playing big brother to the Iraqi politicians." "If we want smooth relations," he said, "that means we have to learn not to be stepping on their feet." Rubin said the United States risks driving Iraqis "into the arms of Iran" if it pursues a policy that is too domineering. In the coming days, Iraqi election officials are expected to certify results that will see a mainstream Shiite alliance take about 139 of 275 seats in the National Assembly. The Kurdish alliance is expected to win about 74 seats and the slate headed by Ayad Allawi, the current U.S.-appointed prime minister, will have about 40 seats. Sunni-dominated parties gained only a couple of seats. Still, prominent Iraqi politicians have said they would find ways to include Sunnis in the new cabinet and the process of writing the constitution.. Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, is expected to hold the largely ceremonial post of president. The Shiite alliance was expected to propose a prime minister from among its ranks as soon as Tuesday. Mahdi, the current finance minister, is widely regarded as a top candidate. Chalabi is also frequently cited as a contender for prime minister, even though he has little following in Iraq. "I don't know that there is a more savvy political player in the world," a U.S. official said on Monday. -- ----------------- R. A. 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