<http://www.townhall.com/columnists/charleskrauthammer/printck20050304.shtml>
Townhall.com
The march of freedom
Charles Krauthammer (back to web version) | Send
March 4, 2005
WASHINGTON -- Revolutions do not stand still. They either move forward or
they die. We are at the dawn of a glorious, delicate, revolutionary moment
in the Middle East. It was triggered by the invasion of Iraq, the overthrow
of Saddam, and televised images of 8 million Iraqis voting in a free
multiparty election. Which led to the obvious question throughout the
Middle East: Why Iraqis and not us?
To be sure, the rolling revolution began outside the Middle East with
the Afghan elections, scandalously underplayed in the American media. That
was followed by the Iraqi elections, impossible to underplay even by the
American media. In between came free Palestinian elections that produced a
moderate reform-oriented leadership, followed by an amazing mini-uprising
in the Palestinian parliament that rejected an attempt to force corrupt
cronies on the new government.
And it continued -- demonstrations in Egypt for democracy, a shocking
rarity that led President Mubarak to promise the first contested
presidential elections in Egyptian history. And now, of course, the Cedar
Revolution in Lebanon, where the assassination of opposition leader Rafiq
Hariri led to an explosion of people power in the streets that brought down
Syria's puppet-government in Beirut.
Revolution is in the air. What to do? We are already hearing voices
for restraint about liberating Lebanon. Flynt Leverett, your usual Middle
East expert, takes to The New York Times to oppose immediate withdrawal of
Syria's occupation of Lebanon. Instead, we should be trying to ``engage and
empower'' the tyranny in Damascus.
These people never learn. Here we are on the threshold of what Arabs
in the region are calling the fall of their own Berlin Wall, and our
``realists'' want us to go back to making deals with dictators. It would be
not just a blunder but a tragedy to try to rein in the revolution in
Lebanon. It would betray our principles. And it would betray the people in
Lebanon who have been encouraged by our proclamation of those principles.
Moreover, the Cedar Revolution promises not only to liberate Lebanon,
but to transform the entire Middle East. Why? Because a forced Syrian
withdrawal from Lebanon could bring down the Assad dictatorship. The road
to Damascus goes through Beirut. And changing Damascus will transform the
region.
We are not talking about invading Syria. We have done enough invading
and there is no need. If Assad loses Lebanon, his regime could be fatally
weakened.
For two reasons: economics and psychology. Like all Soviet-style
systems, the Syrian economy is moribund. It lives off Lebanese commerce and
corruption. Take that away and a pillar of the Assad kleptocracy
disappears. As does the psychological pillar. Dictatorships like Assad's
rule by fear, which is sustained by power and the illusion of power.
Control of Lebanon is the centerpiece of that illusion. The loss of
Lebanon, at the hands of unarmed civilians no less, would be a deadly blow
to the Assad mystique, perhaps enough to revoke his mandate from heaven.
And why is Syria so important? Because Assad has succeeded Saddam as
the principal bad actor in the region. Syria, an island of dictatorship in
a sea of liberalization, is desperately trying to destabilize its
neighbors. The Hariri bombing in Lebanon is universally believed to be the
work of Syria. The orders for the Feb. 25 Tel Aviv bombing, deliberately
designed to blow up the new Palestinian-Israeli rapprochement, came from
Damascus. And we know that Syria is sheltering leading Baathist insurgents
who are killing Iraqis and Americans by the score in Iraq.
There was a brief Damascus Spring five years ago when Syrians began
demanding more freedom. Assad repressed it. Now 140 Syrian intellectuals
have petitioned their own government to withdraw from Lebanon. They signed
their names. The fear is lifting there too. Were the contagion to spread to
Damascus, the entire region from the Mediterranean Sea to the Iranian
border would be on a path to democratization.
This of course could all be reversed. Liberal revolutions were
suppressed in Europe 1848, Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968 and Tiananmen
1989. Nothing is written. Determined and ruthless regimes can extinguish
revolutions. Which is why the worst thing we can possibly do is ``engage
and empower'' the tyrants.
This is no time to listen to the voices of tremulousness, indecision,
compromise and fear. If we had listened to them two years ago, we would
still be doing oil-for-food, no-fly zones and worthless embargoes. It is
our principles that brought us to this moment by way of Afghanistan and
Iraq. They need to guide us now -- through Beirut to Damascus.
--
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The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation <http://www.ibuc.com/>
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"... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity,
[predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to
experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'
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