http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/

Al Qaida's threat to the U.S.: Three scenarios 

How good is Al Qaida? It's a question constantly being asked by U.S.
intelligence and law enforcement. Thirty months after 9/11, neither
the CIA nor the FBI has uncovered one plot by Al Qaida to actually
strike the United States.
 
Here are some options being examined by U.S. counter-terrorism officials: 

 Al Qaida wants to strike the United States, but does not have the
capability. An FBI report said U.S. intelligence has simply found no
trace of an Al Qaida sleeper network in the United States. 

 Al Qaida has the ability to order an attack on the United States, but
has been prevented from doing so by Saudi Arabia. September 11 so
threatened U.S.-Saudi relations, as well as the future of the royal
family in Riyad, that Saudi liaisons and Al Qaida financiers have
refused to provide help to anybody suspected of planning an attack on
the United States. Gulf sheiks who had financed Al Qaida prior to 9/11
feel the same way. 

 Al Qaida is waiting. This is the most frightening option. Under this
scenario, Al Qaida has a small network in the United States that is
highly compartmentalized and unconnected to any embassy, government or
U.S. citizen. 

But Osama Bin Laden feels no pressure to act yet. He's waiting for
complacency to set in in Washington. He might also be working for an
enemy of the United States � such as Iran. 









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