http://www2.rnw.nl/rnw/en/currentaffairs/region/westerneurope/ter050218?view
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At least 15 foiled terrorist attacks in Europe since 9/11

by RN Security and Defence editor Hans de Vreij, 18 February 2005

   

Since 11 September 2001, at least 15 major terrorist attacks have been
prevented in Europe, according to a Norwegian research institute.

In an interview with Radio Netherlands, a spokesman for the institute claims
that all these attacks would have caused many casualties had they not been
foiled.

 

The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) is the chief adviser on
defence-related science and technology to the Ministry of Defence and the
Norwegian Armed Forces' military organisation. Its key tasks include mapping
out terrorist activity by radical Muslims in Europe. This resulted this week
in a report on last November's murder of Dutch film-maker Theo van Gogh. A
typical al-Qaeda-inspired assassination chiefly carried out for political
reasons such as the presence of Dutch troops in Iraq, concludes the FFI.

The institute also looked at the organisation of the so-called
Hofstad-network, the group of mostly young radical Muslims of Moroccan
extraction to which the murder suspect, Mohammed B, allegedly belonged.
There are striking similarities in structure between this particular network
and other Islamic cells based elsewhere in Europe, according to the FFI.

Mass casualty attacks

The 15 thwarted attacks were so-called 'mass casualty attacks' designed to
take a great number of lives for maximum impact, according to an FFI
spokesman, who refused to give further details to Radio Netherlands.

In response, the Dutch intelligence and security service AIVD divulged that
at least three major attacks had been foiled in the Netherlands since 2000.
In addition, several arrests had been made in an alleged plot to blow up the
US embassy in Paris.

Click to listen to 

the interview with Glenn Schoen, 2'32

In another reaction to the Norwegian estimate, terrorism expert Glenn
Schoen, of the US security firm 'Transecur', pointed out that the number of
foiled terrorist attacks could be elevated to 20 or even 30 depending on the
definition of "major attack".

Higher estimates

More specifically, he listed five thwarted attacks in France and an equal
number in Spain, three each in Germany and Britain, and one in Belgium,
Italy and the Netherlands. Added up, the total would be 19, four more than
estimated by the Norwegian research body.

And those 19 are only cases about which the authorities has chosen to
release details. The real number must therefore be higher, somewhere between
20 and 30, according to Mr Schoen.

Legal complexities

One also has to bear in mind that the figure of 19 only refers to cases in
which hard evidence supporting allegations that a high-profile attack was in
the making. If less clear-cut cases are included, the number is set to be
much higher.

Take the Netherlands, for example. The AIVD secret service told Radio
Netherlands about four thwarted major attacks, but says only one of those
meets the strict legal criteria for such a qualification, the other three
are therefore not included in the total of 19.

That single case involves the October 2003 arrests of four suspects who were
found to possess basic bomb-making equipment. Among them was Samir A, a
notorious member of the Hofstad network. All four suspects were later
released for lack of legally sound evidence, which shows how difficult it is
to thwart terrorist plots in the courtroom.



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