Okay, read the latest "omigod" report from the Washington Post but, before you splutter you coffee all over the monitor, read what I had to say about it and what articles I supplied after it. Bush: U.S. to Sell F-16s to Pakistan Reversal, Decried by India, Is Coupled With Fighter-Jet Promise to New Delhi By Peter Baker Washington Post Staff Writer Saturday, March 26, 2005; Page A01 CRAWFORD, Tex., March 25 -- President Bush rewarded a key ally in the war on terrorism Friday by authorizing the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, a move that reversed 15 years of policy begun under his father and that India warned would destabilize the volatile region. The United States barred the sale of F-16s to Pakistan in 1990 out of concern over its then-undeclared nuclear weapons program, but Bush has forged a close relationship with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf since Sept. 11, 2001, and considers his help crucial in the battle against Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda terrorist organization. Pakistan initially wants to buy about two dozen aircraft, but Bush administration officials said there would be no limits on how many it could eventually purchase. The administration tried to balance the sale by announcing simultaneously that it would allow U.S. firms the right to provide India the next generation of sophisticated, multirole combat aircraft, including upgraded F-16 and F-18 warplanes, as well as develop broader cooperation in military command and control, early-warning detection, and missile defense systems. "What we are trying to do is solidify and extend relations with both India and Pakistan, at a time when we have good relations with both of them -- something most people didn't think could be done -- and at a time when they have improving relationships with one another," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in an interview at The Washington Post. "If you look at it in terms of the region," she added, "what we are trying to do is break out of the notion that this is a hyphenated relationship somehow, that anything that happens that is good for Pakistan is bad for India, and vice versa." Critics in Washington assailed the decision, saying the administration would effectively supply both sides in a new arms race in one of the world's most dangerous hot spots, even as it rewards an authoritarian government in Islamabad in conflict with Bush's stated commitment to promote democracy around the globe. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh complained that selling F-16s to Pakistan would shift the balance of power in South Asia. "We're greatly disappointed to hear the news," said Gautam Bambawale, minister for press affairs at the Indian Embassy in Washington. "This is probably going to have negative consequences for Indian security and the security environment" of the region, Bambawale said. Bush called Singh to explain the decision Friday morning from his ranch here, where he is taking an Easter break, aides said. Indian press accounts took note of the U.S. agreement to allow New Delhi to bid for licenses for joint production of state-of-the-art military equipment, calling it the concession paid in exchange for the fighter sale to Pakistan. The administration move alters the equation in a part of the world where deep-seated religious and national animosities have resulted in a long, hair-trigger standoff between two nuclear-armed giants. India and Pakistan have fought three wars in the past half-century and have come close to the brink many more times, most recently in 2002 over the disputed region of Kashmir. Tensions have eased since then, and Musharraf plans his first visit to India in four years next month. The aborted F-16 sale to Pakistan in 1990 has been a source of friction between Washington and Islamabad ever since. President George H.W. Bush decided that year that he could no longer certify that Pakistan was not developing nuclear weapons, and so under a 1985 law the aircraft deal was called off. The Clinton administration agreed in 1998 to reimburse Pakistan for much of the money it had paid for 28 planes. The Bush administration's decision to authorize a new sale was not its first gift to Musharraf, whose forces have engaged in a sometimes criticized search for bin Laden and his compatriots in the border regions next to Afghanistan. For the past three years, it has provided spare parts to keep Pakistan's aging fleet of warplanes flying. In 2003, Bush announced a five-year, $3 billion financial aid package and last year signed a separate $1.3 billion arms package for Pakistan. Some analysts said the latest Bush move reflected the new geopolitical reality after the Sept. 11 attacks. "In the post-9/11 world, everything is changed," said Lanny J. Davis, the Washington lawyer who brokered the reimbursement deal for Pakistan. "The notion that we shouldn't give Pakistan military parity with India . . . makes no sense anymore given everything Pakistan has done for us." Stephen P. Cohen, a South Asia expert at the Brookings Institution, said the sale would give Bush more influence in Pakistan. "This gives us leverage on Musharraf in pushing him in the direction of accommodation over Kashmir and other disputes," Cohen said. Pakistan, he added, remained a top priority for Washington: "It's got nuclear weapons, it's in a critical part of the world, and we can't afford to let it go down the drain." Others accused Bush of selling out his own rhetoric on democracy and playing a risky game that could renew conflict in the region and even push India closer to China. Former senator Larry Pressler (R-S.D.), who sponsored the 1985 law that ultimately forced the cancellation of the original F-16 sale, called Friday's decision "an atrocity" that goes against "everything the Bush administration has stood for." "This is just a disastrous thing," said Pressler, who now sits on the board of an Indian technology company. "It raises Pakistan, a country that doesn't stand for anything we stand for, to the level of India," the world's largest democracy. "It has nothing to do with fighting terrorism." Instead, he said, "it gives Pakistan a delivery vehicle for its nuclear weapons." Congressional leaders have also criticized the prospect of renewing F-16 sales given Musharraf's refusal to allow U.S. investigators to interview Abdel Qadeer Khan, the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb, who for years ran an illicit international ring providing nuclear technology to rogue nations. Administration officials declined to comment Friday on whether they had won concessions from Pakistan on the Khan investigation. During her visit to South Asia earlier this month, Rice pressed for more access to Khan. Musharraf told a Pakistani television network this week that he was prepared to send centrifuges to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna for inspection to help determine whether Pakistani technology was used to help Iran develop nuclear weapons. During her trip, Rice also pushed Musharraf, an army general who took power in a bloodless coup in 1999, to commit to holding elections in 2007, and administration officials cited his assurance in announcing the F-16 sale Friday. But Musharraf has broken commitments to restore democracy before, most recently when he reversed his promise to give up his army office and rule as a civilian. Staff writer Glenn Kessler in Washington contributed to this report. _____ Okay, now that you have been told the Washington Post view of the world, complete with all of its ignorance and hyperbole, let's look at some cold, hard facts. Nowhere in the above article will you be told that Pakistan already has 28 F-16A and 12 two-seat F-16B models that were sold to them in 1982, and that 32 of them are still operational. Another 60, of the Block 15 standard, with improved engines, were on ordered in 1988. Twenty-eight of them had been ready for transfer to Pakistan when the Pressler amendment killed the sale and they remained in US storage for almost a decade after that. The only possible reference to the earlier F-16 sale was the mention of spare parts sales. Now, if we hadn't sold them any planes, what would the spare parts be for? If Pakistan bought two dozen aircraft today, that might barely replace their current inventory of F-16s. Airframe fatigue and incompatibility with the newer engines might make the older models unusable. Their oldest birds are now 23 years old. Modern fighters do not last long without good maintenance and service-life extension upgrades. What I really find interesting is all of the wailing about Indian and how this will tip the strategic balance. Has the Washington Post checked out the weapons purchases of the Indian Air Force over the past few years, with buys of the advanced Russian MiG-29 and SU-30 fighters? As for nuclear delivery, virtually any fighter can be configured to release a nuclear weapon if it has any bomb-dropping capability. but both India and Pakistan have focused primarily on missile delivery systems, not the use of tactical aircraft which could be intercepted and shot down. Yes, I know that some will tell you that Pakistan has trained to use the F-16 in a bomb-toss method but you don't get to make low-level approaches in the mountains and the current inventory of 32 remaining A/B models probably wouldn't be able to withstand the strain of a wing-straining bomb-toss maneuver. Even if this is the case, why isn't anybody asking about the Indian Su-30, which is a dedicated strike aircraft? Providing US fighters to Pakistan does have its drawbacks but there are some significant pluses to this move as well. For one thing. Pakistan is less likely to get close to China for weapons sales. It also serves as a deterrent to Indian military growth, which has been very prominent in the past few years. And, by the way http://globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/f-16-fms.htm In December 1981, the government of Pakistan signed a letter of agreement for the purchase of 40 F-16A/B (28 F-16A and 12 F-16B) fighters for the Pakistan Air Force. The first aircraft were accepted in October 1982. The Pakistani F-16s are all Block 15 aircraft, the final version of the F-16A production run.* They are powered by the Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-200 turbofan engine. All 40 aircraft were delivered between 1983 and 1987. Pakistan ordered 71 additional Block 15 F-16 aircraft, 11 in December 1988 and 60 in November 1989. However, due to the U.S. embargo of military equipment, only 28 of these aircraft were built, and they were placed in storage at the U.S. Air Force Aircraft Maintenance and Regeneration Center in Tucson, Ariz. * Global Security goofed and should have read its own web pages http://globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/f-16ab.htm There was also a Block 20 version of the F-16A/B. According to my other references, it was sold to Taiwan. In addition, there was an Air Defense Fighter (ADF) variant of the Block 15, for the US Air National Guard, which was distinct from the regular Block 15 model. - Ron _____ The following tells you about the service life limits of these planes and how we have upgraded our jets. To the best of my knowledge, Pakistan has not. Note that the Block 15 is not even mentioned here, except to say that there was a plan to reactive some if we fell short. Note how it talks about structural life. One thing we found after DESERT STORM is that the heavy use of these planes to to drop bombs (it was supposed to be a dogfighter, not a bomber) wore out the wings. http://globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/f-16-life.htm F-16 Fighting Falcon Service Life The Falcon Up Structural Improvement Program program incorporates several major structural modifications into one overall program, affecting all USAF F-16s. Falcon Up will allow Block 25/30/32 aircraft to meet a 6000 hour service life, and allow Block 40/42 aircraft to meet an 8000 hour service life. Falcon UP and the planned Falcon STAR programs include numerous depot level structural modifications required to extend the service life of all F-16 aircraft to 8,000 hours. The F-16 CUPID program is bringing older F-16s (Blocks 25-32) new life by adding night vision equipment, enhanced avionics, and the ability to carry an infrared targeting pod and laser-guided munitions. Ultimately, CUPID-modified aircraft will have the capability to carry JDAM and other GPS-guided munitions. A small decrease in Ogden Air Logistics Center (OO-ALC) capacity in the outyears is due to the completion of the F-16 Falcon-up Program and to a decrease in the F-16 Service Life Improvement Program (SLIP) quantity. In view of the challenges inherent in operating F-16s to 8,000 flight hours, together with the moderate risk involved in JSF integration, the Department has established a program to earmark by FY 2000 some 200 older, Block 15 F-16 fighter aircraft in inactive storage for potential reactivation. The purpose of this program is to provide a basis for constituting two combat wings more quickly than would be possible through new production. This force could offset aircraft withdrawn for unanticipated structural repairs or compensate for delays in the JSF program. Reactivating older F-16s is not a preferred course of action, but represents a relatively low-cost hedge against such occurrences. The mission-capable rate for Air Force Reserve F-16s increased from 69.7% in fiscal 2001 to 76.3% during the first three months of fiscal 2002, despite Operation Noble Eagle flight activity. _____ _____ http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2003/030128-indianuke01.htm <http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2003/index.html> <http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2003/index.html> <http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2003/index.html> _____ The Washington Post January 28, 2003 U.S., India to Conduct Joint Air Combat Exercise Pakistan Voices Concern Over Training's Potential to Blunt Its Ability to Use Nuclear-Armed Fighters By Thomas E. Ricks Washington Post Staff Writer The U.S. and Indian militaries are planning to conduct their first joint exercise with fighter aircraft, U.S. defense officials said, a move that has aroused concern among senior Pakistani officials because it is likely to teach India how to blunt the ability of Pakistan to use fighter jets to launch nuclear weapons. The planned training, which is likely to take place later this year or early in 2004, has not previously been disclosed. It represents an intensification of the new relationship between the U.S. and Indian armed forces, which until recent years tended to regard each other with suspicion. The exercise could strain relations between Pakistan and the United States, said Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri. "We would not be happy at all" if the exercise takes place, he told reporters and editors yesterday at The Washington Post. "I don't think it is politically advisable at all for the military and the United States government to do anything which would further complicate matters for the government of Pakistan." He added that he expects the exercise to produce "negative fallout" and said he planned to raise the issue with Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. The exercise apparently would be the first time that the highest-performing fighters built by the United States and Russia would be pitted against each other. In the training, the top air-to-air fighter in the U.S. Air Force inventory, the F-15C, is expected to fly against the Russian Su-30s that India started acquiring in 1997. The Pentagon is interested in practicing dogfighting the F-15C -- which was introduced in the Air Force in 1979 -- with the newer Russian aircraft. (LEWIS - 1975, at Luke AFB) The United States asked that India fly its top-of-the-line warplanes, rather than the older MiG-29s that India also owns, because the Air Force has never had the opportunity to exercise against the Su-30 or its variant, the Su-27, said Maj. James Law, a spokesman for the Air Force's headquarters for Pacific operations. "We requested those aircraft because the USAF already participates in exercises with countries that have the Jaguar, Mirage, and MiGs, other aircraft the [Indian Air Force] flies," he said. "We are still in the early planning stages of this exercise," he added. Law said that it has not been decided what aircraft would be used in the exercise, but another Air Force official said he expected that the F-15 squadron based on the Japanese island of Okinawa would be tapped. Asked whether Pakistan's concerns had been taken into consideration, Law said that the exercise is "consistent with President Bush's strategic objectives in South Asia." But, he added, "We would not want any neighboring country to get alarmed by these exercises." The training might enable India to learn how to better deter Pakistan from believing it could use U.S.-built F-16s to threaten India with nuclear strikes. The big, twin-engine F-15 is generally seen as superior to the smaller, single-engine F-16. Pakistan's air force operates about 32 F-16s, and is believed to consider them a more dependable means of delivering nuclear weapons than its ballistic missiles. Pakistani F-16s supposedly have practiced a "toss-bombing" technique that would be used to deliver nuclear bombs, according to GlobalSecurity.org, an independent defense consulting organization. In that technique, a plane begins its bomb run at a low altitude, perhaps to better avoid radar detection, and then pulls up sharply as it nears its target, releasing the bomb as it climbs. The bomb then continues on an upward arc before detonating far from its release point, giving the pilot time to speed away from the nuclear blast. "For the time being it appears that the credibility of Pakistan's nuclear deterrent depends not on its limited-range missiles, but on the survivability of its strike aircraft," according to an assessment posted on GlobalSecurity's Web site. Over the past two years the U.S.-Indian military relationship has thawed and led to a series of exercises, most of them less combat-oriented than the planned air superiority exercise. Indian paratroopers last year practiced parachute jumps in Alaska, U.S. Air Force C-130 cargo aircraft flew to the big Indian air base near Agra for an exercise in military airlift operations, and the Indian and U.S. navies conducted a four-day exercise that included anti-submarine training. In addition, Indian experts participated last June in a U.S. missile defense exercise in Colorado, and Indian defense officials followed up with a visit to the United States to discuss participating in the U.S. missile defense program. The Defense Intelligence Agency also instituted a formal relationship with India's military intelligence service. Some senior Pentagon officials in recent years have advocated developing a new strategic relationship with India, which since achieving independence in 1947 was usually seen by the U.S. government either as neutral or as leaning toward the Soviet Union. Pentagon officials said they believe that India, with its democratic capitalist system, huge population and burgeoning information technology industries, can help offset the growing influence of China in South and East Asia. 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