http://www.tol.cz/look/TOL/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=112&NrSection=2&NrArticle=13968&tpid=8
Linking Accession and Sovereignty
by Neil Barnett
21 April 2005
In an interview with TOL, Balkans watcher Istvan Gyarmati argues in
favor of an independent Kosovo.
BUDAPEST, Hungary | The Balkan region has fallen away from the eyes of
the world as international efforts to stabilize Kosovo, Bosnia, and
Macedonia have borne fruit. But in the case of the first two, a
sustainable political settlement has yet to be found. In Kosovo this
question is most pressing, and in March the UN Secretary General's
Special Representative in Kosovo, Soren Jessen-Petersen, said that
negotiations on the province's future would start before September.
Earlier this month the International Commission on the Balkans
released "The Balkans in Europe's Future," a report on the future of
the western Balkans. The commission is supported by foundations such
as the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and its members
include internationally known Balkan experts such as Karl Bild and
Bruce Jackson as well as several heavyweight figures from the region,
including a number of former ministers and the former leaders of
Macedonia and Albania.
TOL spoke to Istvan Gyarmati, a member of the commission and a former
Hungarian diplomat with extensive Balkan experience from 1991 onwards.
The report's introduction deplores a "piecemeal" approach to Balkan
policy, and takes the prospect of European Union accession as its
overarching theme. It is in the context of Kosovo that the report has
attracted the most interest:
"The commission advocates a four-stage transition in the evolution of
Kosovo's sovereignty. Kosovo's sovereignty should develop from the
status quo as defined by [UN] Resolution 1244, to 'independence
without full sovereignty' (allowing for reserved powers for the
international community in the fields of human rights and minority
protection), to the 'guided sovereignty' that Kosovo would enjoy while
negotiating with the EU, and finally to 'shared sovereignty' inside
the EU."
In other words Kosovo would continue under changing international
"guidance" and achieve full sovereignty, but there is some vagueness
in the report on the point of changing of borders, the crux of the
Kosovo question. Gyarmati is quite clear, however: "From the outset of
the process Kosovo will be independent of Serbia and Montenegro,
according to the plan. For us, this is essential. We think this would
be acceptable to the Albanians. They want [independent] status and if
they get it, they'll be happy for awhile. Of course, this depends on
how much progress is made: if after a couple of years there are no
jobs, no healthcare and so on, they will not be happy. Under [UN
administration] they've always had a good excuse, but once they are
independent, the excuse will be gone."
This proposal is indeed likely to find favor among the Albanian
majority of the province, but would almost certainly be unacceptable
to Belgrade. Serbia is seeking "less than independence and more than
autonomy" for Kosovo. TOL learned recently that Serbia will insist as
a precondition to negotiations that there are no border changes and
that Kosovo is demilitarized. Gyarmati has little time for this view.
"What is the Serbs' bargaining chip? They will have to live with what
happens," he said. "But we do agree to no change of borders after
independence. Kosovo will not be able to join Albania or Macedonia.
Serbia has to swallow two bitter pills in the next 18 months � to lose
Montenegro and Kosovo. The choice they have is to lose them in a way
that takes them closer to the EU, or back to nationalism."
The EU's recent decision to open negotiations for Serbia and
Montenegro to start "stabilization" talks is clearly intended in part
as a carrot in the run-up to Kosovo talks.
Serbian leaders have claimed that Kosovo independence would bring the
extremist Serbian Radical Party to power in Serbia, potentially
destabilizing the region. Again, Gyarmati is robust: "We heard this
sort of thing many times from Gorbachev and Yeltsin. If the Radicals
come to power, it's [the Serbs'] own choice, but it's not a good thing
to blackmail the international community. A Radical government would
be as bad for Serbia as for us."
There is a way around this danger, he said. "If the international
community is smart enough to get [Serbian President Boris] Tadic to
accept rather than [unwillingly] agree, and offers de facto
compensation, it might even be helpful to Serbia."
The report is frank on the situation of the Kosovo Serbs: "a
multiethnic Kosovo does not exist except in the bureaucratic
assessments of the international community." But Gyarmati does not see
their situation as a barrier to the commission's plan. "The Kosovo
Serbs would not be the first minority in history that has to learn to
live with a majority, or vice versa. Those Serbs who choose to remain
must have their national, religious, and cultural identity protected
and have autonomy, including ethnic Serbian police and special
judiciary under the EU-led international administration. The essential
thing is that everyone who wants to stay or return should be allowed
to do so."
The plan calls for continued, extended commitment from the EU to give
Kosovo support in administration, and for further rounds of
enlargement of the Union. Is this not pushing the patience and
political resources of an organization already showing signs of Balkan
and enlargement fatigue? "Yes, the international community is tired of
these sorts of commitments, but if we don't do this we'll be there
another 50 years. Bosnia and the Dayton Accords demonstrate that we
should not freeze the situation, but move toward a solution," Gyarmati
said.
He went on, "Kosovo certainly would not join [the EU] before 2014. The
report suggests that it should not be too much after 2014, as that's
when the EU's new budget cycle starts, and it needs to be factored in.
And symbolically, 2014 is 100 years after the assassination of
Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo.
"I see 2014 also as a realistic accession date for other countries
like Serbia, Bosnia, Albania, and Macedonia. It's not guaranteed,
[accession is] still performance-related, but at least the EU should
be ready, even if they are not. And it's almost 10 years away, so
hopefully enlargement fatigue would have worn off."
On the subject of Bosnia, the commission's most striking
recommendation is the abolition of the High Representative, a post
legally enshrined in the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the Bosnian
war. The report argues that the High Representative with his sweeping
powers was intended to pacify the country in the wake of war, but is
now part of the problem rather than the solution.
The report states, "As the agenda of Bosnian politics has shifted to
the very different issues of democratic consolidation and development,
the powers and activities of the High Representative continue to
dominate Bosnian politics. This has blocked the development of
self-government which is the precondition to becoming an EU candidate
state."
"We want to see an end to the High Representative and his power of
veto and to have instead an EU delegation whose influence comes from
soft power, the lure of integration," Gyarmati said.
Many observers, however, believe that the entity of Republika Srpska
(RS) � legally guaranteed under Dayton � will thwart efforts to create
a normal state fit for EU accession. Gyarmati disagrees: "I'm not sure
that RS needs to give up its entity status. The question is how to
create a functioning state. Entities need not matter."
There has been some speculation over a possible linkage between Kosovo
and Republika Srpska to pacify Belgrade: Serbia would relinquish its
claim on Kosovo in return for the guaranteed existence of Republika
Srpska within the Bosnian federative state. "This is a non-starter,"
Gyarmati said. "Neither Belgrade or RS wants it. � The fall of
Yugoslavia happened because, faced [with] a choice between nationalism
or welfare, people chose nationalism. Now is the time for welfare. The
people are tired of fighting. Hungary lost its lands over 80 years ago
at Trianon and the Hungarians are still digesting this. It takes time.
But I don't think the Serbs will fight over Kosovo, RS or Montenegro."
The commission's report is now doing the rounds of Balkan and Western
governments and organizations. "We have already presented the report
in Washington, Brussels, and Belgrade, and will go to more capitals in
May. From [EU foreign policy chief] Javier Solana to the [U.S.]
National Security Council and the State Department we have had
positive reactions, especially on the unofficial level," Gyarmati said.
"This is mainstream thinking, but no one had said it publicly. What's
new is making the EU central to resolving these problems by linking
accession and sovereignty."
The stakes, Gyarmati said, are moderately high. If this part of the
Balkans were left to fester, "You would have continued crisis and
conflict. The EU could live with that, it's only about 15 million
people, but it would be a problem. From 2007 the west Balkans will be
completely surrounded by EU members. Our report is the solution to the
problem."
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