http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=11231
Depressing independence for Montenegro Even pro-independence Montenegrins are growing increasing skeptical and depressed about what their future independence would mean at a time when Russian business is pushing its way through the republic in a manner that many believe is dubious. By Tim Judah for ISN Security Watch (04/05/05) There may be less than a year to go before Europe has two more independent states, Serbia and Montenegro. Pro-independence activists in Montenegro should be cheered. But, as ISN Security Watch discovered, many are downcast and especially suspicious of what the arrival of large amounts of Russian capital means for their tiny republic. Talk to diplomats whose job it is to make policy on the Balkans and you will notice an interesting phenomenon: Montenegro's independence is now taken as an inevitable, if rather irritating, given. That is news that should be music to the ears of pro-independence activists in Montenegro, but in fact a mood of depression seems to have to have settled over the last ex-Yugoslav republic to make its bid for statehood. The history of the union Today, Montenegro is linked to Serbia as part of the so-called state-union between the two republics. The "state-union" of the loose federation of the two republics was created very much at the instigation of Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief. A deal creating the union was signed in 2002 and became the legal successor to the old Federal Republic of Yugoslavia on 4 February 2003. The agreement stipulated that either party could hold a referendum on independence and leave the union after three years. At the time of its creation, several factors were in play, but there is little doubt that one of the main factors influencing Solana's desire to secure a deal was his fear that an independent Montenegro of 650,000 people would fuel ethnic Albanian demands for independence in neighboring Kosovo, which has a population three times greater. Being a republic of the old Yugoslavia, Montenegro's independence does not present any legal challenges, unlike in Kosovo, which was, and de jure if not de facto remains, a province of Serbia. Only a matter of time But now, many European and US diplomats who deal with Balkan affairs appear to believe that Kosovo's independence is only a matter of time - so the biggest external argument for keeping the state union alive has, in effect, been removed. However, as in 2002, Solana and others worry that there is simply not enough support for independence in Montenegro to make for a stable and viable state. Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic and his allies, however, say that nothing will deflect them from their aim of a referendum. Assuming that a referendum is called on 5 February next year, it would likely be held any time between 22 March and 6 May 2006. It could be held later, but in any case, Djukanovic is known to want to hold it before October 2006, when parliamentary elections must be held. The reason for this is simple: Djukanovic and his ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) want to go those polls as the people who delivered on their promise of independence, thus distracting from opposition charges of corruption and links to both local and foreign mafias and figures in Italy, where Djukanovic is being pursued through its courts over charges of cigarette smuggling. Problems ahead Recent local elections and opinion polls show that if a referendum were held now, Montenegrins would indeed vote for independence. However, the numbers in favor are scarcely overwhelming. One recent poll showed that some 44.5 per cent would vote for it with 40 per cent against, and the rest "don't knows" or undecided. According to analyst and pollster Srdjan Darmanovic, recent figures, which have not moved greatly over the last few years would translate into a referendum victory for pro-independence forces of between 54-57 per cent. While no one now expects violence in the wake of any referendum, there are several potential problems on the road ahead. The first is that, especially if the referendum result is very tight, there are bound to be accusations of fraud as the numbers of disputed votes involved would be tiny. Secondly, the credibility of the referendum would be damaged if pro-Serbian parties call for a boycott. The third factor is that the number of those who say they will vote for independence closely mirrors the number of people who identified themselves as Montenegrins, as opposed to Serbs, especially in the 2003 census. In other words, independence can only be won with the support of ethnic minorities - the Albanians, Bosniaks, and Montenegrin Muslims. Those in favor of independence say that such ethnic distinctions should not be drawn between Montenegrin citizens - but still this will be an ever-present backdrop to arguments in the upcoming referendum. Independence likely, despite all Even putting these problems aside, it does seem likely that Montenegro will become independent next year. There seems little will in Brussels to fight for the preservation of the state union and most of Serbia's leading politicians say that while they are in favor of the union they will do nothing to prevent Montenegro from seceding. Indeed, they would seem to agree with Darmanovic's assessment that firstly, the state union is an unwieldy structure, which does not work well, and secondly, that Serbia and Montenegro will always be friendly neighbors. "Problems could last between us six months, like between Czechs and Slovaks," says Darmanovic, "but now they are the best of friends." Even part of Montenegro's opposition to independence appears to be reconciling it itself to what is to come, with Predrag Bulatovic, the leader of the Socialist People's Party saying recently that he had no problem with it. So, all the indicators are that within a year or so, Montenegro will be an independent state. Last year it adopted a new flag and state symbols based on its pre-1918 ones and proper border and customs posts have been built where they did not exist before. In terms of EU accession, Montenegro and Serbia have separate tracks and in view of upcoming talks on a (joint) Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA), these could easily become talks on two separate SAAs if and when the time comes. Depressed and skeptical about the future And yet much of Montenegro's population appears depressed and skeptical about the future of the republic. Among those in favor of retaining the union with Serbia this is understandable, but it appears to have spread to those who either support the DPS or independence in general. One reason is the difficult economic situation. Some 10 per cent of the population lives at or below the poverty line, and in general terms most people complain about hard times. However, it is also seems that many share the views of Nebojsa Medojevic, the head of the influential NGO, the Group for Changes (GZP). He argues that economic reform in Montenegro has lead to a division of power between local politicians, oligarchs, elements of the secret services, and organized crime. Privatization has led to a plunder of former socially owned industries and assets, and he argues: "The people of Montenegro, political parties, as well as the international community, need to understand that Montenegro is not heading toward reforms, but is on a direct road to economic, social, and political catastrophe." To back his arguments, Medojevic can produce opinion polls that show that a large number of Montenegrins agree with him. Other polls also show that Medojevic is the most popular politician in the country. For the moment, the GZP, which in the past has cited as its model G17 Plus (the NGO turned political party in Serbia), remains an NGO, but it may well become a party in time for general elections next year. Interestingly however, despite this widespread mistrust of politicians none of this has translated into any noticeable support for or against independence because, as Darmanovic says, "the referendum issue is about identity not the economy". He also points to polls showing that up to 40 per cent of the DPS' own voters are not satisfied with their own government, but still will not hesitate to vote for the DPS and independence because "they don't want to vote for the Serbian nationalists". Enter Russia Still, it is not hard to find people, once core supporters of the independence movement, now deeply alienated - and one issue in particular is fuelling that anger. That is the arrival, in recent years, of large (but unknown) amounts of Russian money that many assume, rightly or wrongly, to be of dubious provenance and potentially politically very significant for the future. In a number of places along the coast, in Petrovac and Budva for example, it is possible to see workers refurbishing hotels, which have been bought by Russian interests but closed for years. Milka Tadic, a journalist with the magazine Monitor who has followed the issue for many years, expresses a commonly held view that much of this investment has simply been used as a means of money laundering, as has the purchase of significant amounts of land and real estate. Speaking to ISN Security Watch on condition of anonymity, one Montenegrin businessman who tried to buy a hotel says his colleagues in Moscow investigated the man who, in name at least, heads the company that seems to have bought it. They found he was registered as a taxi driver with a commendation for helping train special police units. His company had no experience in tourism and considerable losses to its name. Now the issue of Russian capital has come centre stage in Montenegro because of the proposed sale of the republic's aluminum plant known by its initials as KAP, to Rusal, a Russian firm owned by oligarch Oleg Deripaska. Last month, Deripaska and Djukanovic appeared to strike a deal on the sale of the giant plant, although it remains to be signed. What is important about KAP is that while small on a scale of aluminum plants around the world, in terms of the Montenegrin economy, it is vast. There are no reliable statistics on KAP but the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) believes that it is responsible for 80 per cent of Montenegrin exports and, along with connected industries, is responsible for 30 per cent of its employment and up to 40 per cent of its GDP. In other words, this is a business that cannot be allowed to fail. What would independence really mean? Even if many Montenegrins are not happy to see Rusal buying KAP, what has alarmed them even more is the behavior of the Russian consul in Podgorica. Just before Deripaska and Djukanovic struck their tentative deal, Vladimir Vaniev, noting a former US ambassador was advising the Montenegrins on KAP's privatization, gave a newspaper interview announcing that he had not known Montenegro was the 51st state of the US and would hence have to inform his foreign minister immediately. For this he was severely reprimanded by the Montenegrins - but it is symptomatic of what alarms Tadic and others. Tadic asks what would happen if Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to destroy Rusal, just as he did oil giant Yukos. "Then the Russian state will own half of Montenegro," she said, adding that the way Vaniev expressed his opinions would be "just the beginning of how they will talk to us". KAP is also an ecological nightmare. According to Aleksandar Raznatovic, a local environmentalist, the government is conspiring to cover up the extent of the poisons being pumped out by the plant and the numbers of cancers it is causing. Like many others, he is skeptical that Rusal will pour enough into KAP to clean it up. "I'm not interested in independence if the Russian and local mafia are in charge," laments Tadic. That, she says, "would be a big threat for democracy and the economic stability of Montenegro". Saska Zekevic, a youth worker who has also always supported independence ,says: "Now I'd vote against independence. I don't want to be independent with them on top." Referring to Djukanovic's previous alliance with the former Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic, she added: "When I wanted it, they didn't. I don't need it any more." Discomfort in Brussels As Darmanovic has pointed out, such sentiments have not yet led to any noticeable erosion for support for independence. However, it seems unlikely that such views, which appear to be spreading, can bring good things for Djukanovic or the many people close to him, who are working hard for independence, but who are also deeply uncomfortable about the interest shown by certain Russian figures in their republic. It is also an issue that is being followed with no little sense of alarm in Brussels, where those who keep up on Balkan issues are, like Tadic, uncomfortable about the possible long-term strategic side effects of Russian influence here. Tim Judah is the author of The Serbs: History, Myth and the Destruction of Yugoslavia and Kosovo: War and Revenge, both published by Yale University Press. ------------------------ Yahoo! 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