http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20050509-110110-7810r
Outside View: What is Egypt's role?
By Barry Rubin
Outside View Commentator
Published May 9, 2005
HERZLIYA, Israel -- Egypt is still the Arab world's most important
single state, President Hosni Mubarak is nearing the end of his career
with no clear successor, and Cairo's role in any successful peace
process is more important than ever.
So what is happening politically in Egypt, which often seems --
not inaccurately -- to be a place where nothing ever really changes?
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One thing that has changed is the decline in Egypt's relative
importance in the Arab world. The country's sheer size and cultural
influence alone assure it of a key voice in Arab counsels. Today,
however, Saudi Arabia represents wealth and radical-conservative
Islam, Syria is the last fortress of traditionally radical Arab
nationalism, and Iraq is the place where the great democratic and
pluralist experiment is taking place.
What does Egypt stand for? Theoretically, that would be balance of
Arab power, moderation toward peace with Israel, a model of stability,
and the bridge between the United States and the Arab world.
Often, however, it does not work out that way either because Egypt
does not wish or cannot play a major role. The roots of this dramatic
change go far back. When President Gamal Abdel Nasser ruled Egypt in
the 1950s and 1960s, Egypt dominated the Arab world. Nasser failed
badly both at home and abroad, though many or most Arab intellectuals
have yet to incorporate this fact into their thinking, at least publicly.
When President Anwar Sadat succeeded Nasser in 1970, he understood
the need to focus on handling Egypt's massive problems. The peace
agreement with Israel at the end of the 1970s, part of this
domestically oriented program, brought an Arab state boycott of Egypt
for a number of years.
For its part, the Egyptian leadership seemed to conclude that
Egypt's more energetic and even expansionist strategy was a waste of
time and resources. Cairo does have legitimate grievances with the
Arab world. For example, the lack of aid it has received from rich
oil-producing states is remarkable. We take it for granted, but it is
nothing short of astounding that it is American taxpayers, not Saudi
princes, who finance economic aid to Egypt.
During his quarter-century-long rule, Mubarak seems to have
accepted this concept of a lower Egyptian profile in the region,
though nothing is said publicly to this effect. Yet in issue after
issue, Egypt has played a marginal or at least certainly not a
leadership role. The truth is that neither Riyadh, nor Damascus, nor
Iraq (either during or after Saddam Hussein), nor the Palestinians
listen to what Egypt tells them.
Meanwhile, in domestic terms, Egypt has maintained a demagogic
political culture even when its policy is relatively pragmatic. By
this means, it preserves national interests and mass support, despite
the regime's failure to improve the lives of its people. Much of the
rhetoric, by state-owned intellectuals in state-owned media, blames
Egypt's problems on the United States, Israel, and the West in
general. After all, if these outsiders are at fault, the government
itself cannot be held to blame.
While energetically, sometimes viciously, suppressing Islamist
radicals, the government frequently wraps itself in the mantle of
Islam. It also soothingly tells the West, in the most blatantly
misleading terms, that it is already practicing democracy and making
reforms while intimidating anyone who pushes for real change.
In September, Mubarak comes up for election to a fifth term in
office he will certainly win, his health permitting. He has allowed
opposition candidates to run, though only on terms that will ensure
they do not do very well. Meanwhile, when the opposition Enough
movement tried to hold a demonstration in late April, security forces
waded in to beat up the protestors and arrested at least 75 of them.
But is the opposition the answer? The political culture and
long-term indoctrination is so powerful that it is hard to break
through it. An anecdote illustrates the problem. Not too long ago, a
wealthy Egyptian liberal decided to start a newspaper that would
provide a different point of view. When it did not sell so well after
a few months, the editors said the only solution was to take the same
political line as all the establishment dailies.
Or consider the statements made by some reform movement leaders.
Ayman Nour told a Cairo crowd, "We can be for democracy and against
the United States." And the vice-chairman of the Enough group is none
other than Abdel-Halim Qandil, who is a critic of the regime but is
also editor of the sensationalist and radical Arab nationalist
newspaper al-Ahali. It is not surprising when he calls for armed
Egyptian involvement in attacks on Israel and American forces in Iraq.
In other words, while the opposition includes courageous
moderates, it is being infiltrated seriously by radical Islamists and
nationalists. These people's real complaint against the existing
system is that it has not gone far enough in what amounts to a
disastrously wrong direction. With people like Qandil and the radical
Islamist Muslim Brotherhood posing as the main alternative to Mubarak,
the prospects for change are hardly attractive.
Mubarak will thus continue to be president until he dies and pass
on the office to whoever he chooses. This might, but probably will
not, be his son, Gamal who, reflecting the ironies of Egyptian
politics, has made himself leader of the "reform" movement within the
ruling National Democratic Party. More likely, some former general who
has held high governmental posts would be selected.
At any rate, as has so often happened, the prospects for stability
in Egypt are good, but the likelihood of real improvement is dim.
--
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International
Affairs (GLORIA) Center, Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya (IDC), and
co-author of "Yasir Arafat: A Political Biography" and "Hating
America: A History" (Oxford University Press, August 2004). His
forthcoming book, "The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for
Democracy in the Middle East," will soon be published by John Wiley.
--
(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are
written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of
important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those
of World Peace Herald or United Press International. In the interests
of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.
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