"Failure in Iraq, either by leaving too early or by losing control of the country, would embolden warring Muslim radicals across the Middle East and confirm what Osama bin Laden has preached: The United States doesn't have the stomach for a prolonged fight.
The idea of Arab democracy would collapse with American credibility, experts say. Americans would face a host of new security threats." "A lot of the military recovery under (the first President) Bush and Reagan and Desert Storm â" a lot of that would be lost," Brookings' O'Hanlon said. "If we lose in Iraq and you look back several decades, you'd see more defeats than victories â" Somalia, Beirut, Vietnam." Yes Bush43 lied to the American public about the reasons for invading Iraq. But it wasn't Hussein support for Al Qaeda (he didn't even let them operate in areas he controlled, only Ansar al Islami operated in the Kurd zone...protected by allied air power). Nor was it Hussein's WMD (he didn't have any he could use against the U.S.,per both the UN and the 9/11 Commission). It was about OIL with planning for Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL)(yes folks that was the original name of the Iraq invasion project) starting in January, 2001 and the plans of the Iraq oil infrastructure reviewed by Cheney in March 2001. It was also about Bush43's compulsion to be labeled in history (as he stated to his ghost writer in 1999) as a warrior president. Regardless, we did invade and now have the tiger by the tail. Letting go before it is tamed is an invitation to be eaten by Al Qaeda and every Jihadi envisoning the Khalifah while our economy goes down the toilet. We have to "stay the course" but if we continue to do it like Bush43 has been doing it (no plan to secure the nation of Iraq, huge corruption and loss of billions unaccounted for, insufficient troops to close the borders to jihadi suicide bombers flowing in to join Zarqawi and not enough troops to secure urban areas from the Baathist insurgents), then we will certainly fail. Half measures will guarantee you end up with half a posterior. Success in Iraq now will require at least 300,000 troops to ensure sufficient coverage of the countryside and borders along with adequate incident response forces to interdict, pursue and destroy insurgents. Yes, we are training Iraqi forces but they are shaky right now at best and too few to make much difference or halt the cycle of violence. Only a vast influx of U.S. troops can stop the current downward spiral of escalating insurgent violence long enough for the Iraqi security forces to stop disintegrating, stabilize and begin to grow in numbers, quality and effectiveness. However, I doubt seriously that Bush43 has the guts (he couldn't even risk showing up for a NG flight physical) to risk his presidency on moving more troops into Iraq and it is doubtful that either his own party or the public would stand for it at this point. Prognosis: Failure in Iraq, collapsing economy at home, a demoralized military, repressive security measures in the homeland, a rising tide of terrorism and activity on the WMD and military fronts by Iran, North Korea and many others. I really, really hope I am wrong... David Bier http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050710/OPINION/507100319/1046 Iraq: Stay the course # Outcome to affect Americans By John Yaukey Gannett News Service WASHINGTON â" President Bush has been trying to rally war-weary Americans by pounding home the message that staying the course in Iraq is strategically and morally necessary. On the flip side of that argument are the considerable costs of failure. In interviews and panel discussions, experts in military strategy, foreign policy, energy markets and national security overwhelmingly conclude that failure in Iraq â" either because of U.S. mistakes or a loss of will to stay â" would have far-reaching effects on Americans. It wouldn't take long, they say, for the shock wave from a faltering Iraq to rumble through U.S. living rooms. Oil prices would skyrocket, Islamic extremists and terrorists would rejoice in an historic victory, Americans would face a new world of security threats while morale among U.S troops likely would sink. "Let me remind you that Iraq is centered in an area with 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and 40 percent of its gas," Anthony Cordesman, author of Iraq's Evolving Insurgency," said. "In very narrow, selfish strategic terms, what happens in Iraq will affect the global economy, our economy and every job in this country for years to come." Civil war If the United States were to lose its resolve in Iraq and pull out early, civil war is a real possibility. But what would happen in such a conflict? Iraqis fighting each other â" much like they are now? Much worse, experts say. A civil war would split Iraq along ethnic, tribal and religious lines. That could draw in oil-rich Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Turkey and Jordan, turning the Middle East into a sectarian battleground between Shiites and Sunni Arabs. Whatever number of U.S. troops remained in Iraq would be faced with a collapsing house of cards and possibly wider regional tensions to contend with. "If there were an ethnic cleansing fight for Baghdad, you could have some outside intervention," said Michael O'Hanlon, a military expert at the Brookings Institution who has closely studied the Iraq war. A key test of U.S. resolve for staying the course in Iraq could come as early as this summer as the Iraqis try to write a constitution under the daily threat of what is often sectarian violence. If the constitutional process bogs down in debate, or worse, "it will serve as a great stage on which to launch sectarian violence," said Thomas Sanderson, deputy director of the Transnational Threats Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Oil prices "Oil hits $120 a barrel." That's the headline from a recent oil shock wave simulation done by energy experts. Their work raises troubling questions about what could happen if instability in Iraq significantly upsets the already tenuous global oil market. The group simulated reductions in output from Saudi Arabia and other countries that pushed the cost of oil to $120 per barrel. It's been hovering at about $60 a barrel. The simulated increase had profound effects: # Gas rose to $5.30 a gallon. # Average household heating oil costs rose from $2,354 to $5,800. # Three million jobs were lost over two years as unemployment hit 6.5 percent. "There's no question that the greatest economy in the world could be brought to its knees by scenarios well within the realm of possibilities," said Jason Grumet, executive director of National Commission on Energy Policy, which participated in the oil war game. Troop morale Leaving Vietnam left a generation of U.S. veterans angry that their country sent them to war where almost 60,000 died then pulled them out and forced them to swallow defeat. The numbers are much smaller in Iraq â" fewer than 2,000 have died so far â" but pulling U.S. troops out prematurely would risk doing the same to a new generation. While the Army is having trouble meeting recruitment goals, pride in the mission in Iraq among those now carrying it out runs extremely high, as is evident in the numbers of troops re-enlisting. At the end of May, more than 45,000 soldiers had re-enlisted â" 70 percent of the Army's annual target â" said Army spokeswoman Lt. Col. Pamela Hart. "If we quit now, the fatalities would be in vain," Hart said. "We have to finish the mission. We take a tremendous pride in our mission." If Ohio attorney Paul Hackett doesn't win his upcoming special congressional race this year, he's rejoining the Marine Corps for another tour in Iraq, where he already has pulled duty in hazardous al Anbar province. "It's difficult to explain to somebody who hasn't been in that environment," he said. "It's truly a calling. I used to hear that and roll my eyes, but it is analogous to a religious calling." Security, legitimacy Failure in Iraq, either by leaving too early or by losing control of the country, would embolden warring Muslim radicals across the Middle East and confirm what Osama bin Laden has preached: The United States doesn't have the stomach for a prolonged fight. The idea of Arab democracy would collapse with American credibility, experts say. Americans would face a host of new security threats. "A lot of the military recovery under (the first President) Bush and Reagan and Desert Storm â" a lot of that would be lost," Brookings' O'Hanlon said. "If we lose in Iraq and you look back several decades, you'd see more defeats than victories â" Somalia, Beirut, Vietnam." -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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