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Syria no longer the power behind Lebanon's government; Now it's Hizbullah and Iran The Guardian Council dismissed the election results of the Interior Ministry and decided that Rafsanjani would be first and Ahmadinejad second. Fouad Siniora Age: 62 Position: Lebanese prime minister-designate Whereabouts: Beirut Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Fouad Siniora enters office with a stark choice: to confront or ignore Hizbullah. Siniora, nominated by the political party headed by the son of assassinated Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, seeks to head the first government in 30 years that does not have to contend with the Syrian military occupation of Lebanon. Still, Siniora would have to contend with President Emile Lahoud, who owes his job to Damascus. "I urge you to join hands to achieve reforms, apply all terms of the Taif Accord, combat corruption, limit public spending and adopt a strategy that would achieve social and economic development," Siniora said. Lebanese analysts said Siniora could go either one of two ways. One is to focus on the economy. The other is a comprehensive program to disarm Hizbullah and impose Lebanese sovereignty throughout the country. Siniora's allies could be as lethal as his enemies. They include former President Michel Aoun, now leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, who returned from Paris in April 2005. Even though he was exiled by Syria, Aoun has tried to engage in a dalliance with Hizbullah and the regime of President Bashar Assad. Another Siniora rival is Walid Jumblatt, an opposition leader who has also been aligned with Syria. Jumblatt will be watching which way the wind blows before declaring his position. He has opposed Syria and supported Hizbullah attacks against Israel. Siniora could play it safe and maintain the status quo. That means he would appoint Lahoud's son-in-law, Elias Murr, as defense minister in his expected 24-member cabinet. This would keep the military and intelligence under the Syrian orbit. Siniora would keep the Finance Ministry to ensure economic reforms that would please the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. In another scenario, Siniora would reach out to Hizbullah, currently not in the ruling coalition. Lebanese sources said the prime minister-designate might give portfolios to at least two Shi'ites close to Hizbullah as a way to appease the Iranian-sponsored terrorist group. This would further embolden Hizbullah, which has presented itself as the defender of Lebanon. In any case, the defense and interior portfolios are deemed crucial in any effort to restore order in Lebanon. Siniora has pledged to form a government as soon as possible but has set no deadline. Siniora has to act fast. Lebanon's public debt estimated at up to $40 billion has been rising rapidly and credit has become more difficult to obtain. He might take some measures such as to remove ministries, cut the budget and announce a campaign against corruption. Beirut needs billions of dollars in soft loans and Siniora hopes that a flurry of activity will convince the World Bank, the United States and France to take a chance. So far, pro-Syrian and Hizbullah politicians have blocked any attempts at reforms. Siniora, however, knows that the international financial community wants stability more than anything else. He saw how customer deposits fell by more than 3 percent in the first four months of 2005 following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. A few years ago, Lebanese politicians and analysts envisioned the prospect of Hizbullah eventually turning into a political movement. No longer. The Lebanese now understand that Hizbullah is a creation of Iran that aims to export the Islamic revolution. Hizbullah has been used as a deep-strike arm of Iran against Israel and the United States. Hizbullah was careful during the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. U.S. officials said Syria facilitated the shipment of Iranian weapons and rockets to Lebanon, but demanded that terrorist operations be approved by Damascus. In May 2001 Hizbullah, following the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, pledged to seek Syrian approval for any military operation against Israel. Hizbullah also agreed to a Syrian request to continue reconnaissance operations against the Jewish state. Last week, Hizbullah demonstrated its new policy without the shackles of Syria. In the boldest operation so far this year, Hizbullah sent a squad of fighters to either attack or abduct Israeli soldiers along the border. The Hizbullah attack included artillery fire in which an Israeli soldier was killed and three others were injured. Israel responded with more than just air strikes. In a gesture to Siniora, Israeli fighter-jets dropped thousands of leaflets over southern Lebanon that called on the government to stop Hizbullah. "The State of Israel hopes that Lebanon would act immediately to impose its sovereignty in the south and prevent Hizbullah from pushing the area toward dangerous military escalation," the leaflets said. Lebanese analysts believe Hizbullah is ready to increase operations against Israel following Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon. Hizbullah, bolstered by parliamentary election results, has been aligned with Amal in southern Lebanon and does not have to contend with any Lebanese police or military. The analysts say Hizbullah believes Iranian support will be stronger than ever. The Shi'ite terrorist group will now deal with Iranian President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, identified as involved in the killings of Kurdish dissidents in Europe as well. He also has been identified as one of the student captors of the U.S. Embassy hostages in Teheran in 1979. Ahmadinejad will have no problem defending Hizbullah terrorism. Lebanese appear divided over whether Siniora's government should act against Hizbullah. Jumblatt has supported maintaining Hizbullah as a so-called resistance organization. Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri agrees. "If anybody within or outside Lebanon thinks that this issue should be dealt with by external intervention or by using the Lebanese army, he is crazy and stupid," Jumblatt said. "Afterwards, the practical [way to deal with the issue] will be by agreement with Hizbullah. The weapons of the resistance are meant to deter the Israelis, and later they will become part of the Lebanese army." Anti-Syrian Christian politicians say Hizbullah and its weapons threaten all Lebanese. They reject Hizbullah's argument that it has been defending Lebanon against Israel. "There must be no weapons outside the state of Lebanon, and there must be no state within the state," said Jubran Tweini, editor of the independent An Nahar daily. Indeed, Aoun said he would seek to persuade Hizbullah to disarm in accordance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559. But he has also raised the possibility that Hizbullah would be absorbed into the Lebanese military. "We should redefine Hizbullah as a resistance movement and not as a militia, but we should define the limits of the resistance's activities," Aoun said. "I believe we should have a continuous dialogue with Hizbullah and listen to what they have to say on all these thorny issues." The European Union has quietly proposed that Hizbullah be absorbed within the Lebanese army. Diplomatic sources said the EU was also willing to provide guarantees that Beirut would not sign a peace treaty with Israel before a general solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Hizbullah does not appear excited by the proposal. The United States is taking a wait-and-see attitude. U.S. diplomats suggest the Bush administration will not make the disarming of Hizbullah a priority of the Siniora government. The diplomats say the White House and State Department understand that the Lebanese transition from Syrian occupation to sovereignty could take a while. And that's good news for Hizbullah. -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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