http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=Common%2FMGArticle%2 FPrintVersion&c=MGArticle&cid=1031783825322&image=timesdispatch80x60.gif&oas DN=timesdispatch.com&oasPN=%21editorials%21oped Germs, Gas, and Terror: More Sophisticated WMDs May Be Beyond al-Qaeda JOHN HALL TIMES-DISPATCH COLUMNIST Thursday, July 14, 2005
Washington. The London bombing climaxed a long string of conventional attacks on major population centers, including New York, Madrid, and Bali. Each demonstrated terrorists' multiplying skills in urban combat. But they also tell us about their apparent lack of interest or capability -- or both -- in biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons. Just before the subway and bus attacks in London, I was holed up for a week with a group of science writers, defense advisers, and laboratory scientists in southern England, listening to them share their thoughts about weapons of mass destruction of the future. While the gathering wasn't for the rec- ord, the consensus of the group was that al-Qaeda and its ilk did not appear to be advancing very swiftly toward acquiring the skills and knowledge required to use unconventional weapons. Their threat would continue to be in conventional explosives. The London bombings, although a shock as the death toll moved past 50, confirmed that view. It appears that the bombs used in London were high-grade explosives, meaning far deadlier materiel is now becoming available to the terrorists than the dynamite in Madrid and jet fuel-laden airliners in New York. Still, Osama bin Laden could not be unaware of the damage he could be inflicting with WMDs. He would not have missed an opportunity to have multiplied casualties in New York, spread disease in central London, or radiation from a "dirty bomb" in Madrid if it had been available to him. Of that, authorities are certain. THERE SEEMS to be agreement that the training and education needed to manufacture and handle weapons of mass destruction may at the moment simply be beyond al-Qaeda's capacity. Otherwise they would have been used to deadly effect by now. There is a popular misconception that obtaining and weaponizing nukes, germs, and gas is a slam dunk. It is extremely sophisticated work. At this conference a laboratory scientist nearly hooted down a science-fiction writer's suggestion that deadly mass-destruction germ-warfare weapons could be manufactured with common, ordinary household products and a few diseased rabbits. Not so and never will be, he said. Terrorist attempts at homemade biological weapons have all been largely duds. Ricin, a deadly poison made from castor beans that has to be ingested to take, was found by London anti-terrorist police in January, 2003, at a flat in North London occupied by Algerians. While police made a big production out of the arrests, it made no sense for terrorists because it could kill people only one at a time. The Aum Shinrikyo cult in Japan, which spread sarin nerve gas in the Tokyo subway system in 1995, produced a deadlier weapon. But it killed only 12 people, and the killers weren't amateurs. The top people in that group were all senior scientists, including medical doctors and physicists with advanced degrees. Still, despite their training, they weren't able to use sarin to kill in vast numbers. The anthrax attacks in October, 2001 -- just a month after the World Trade Center bombings -- were clearly the work of skilled weaponizers. The attacks came in mailed envelopes to congressional leaders and to media offices, including to networks in New York and tabloids in Florida. It remains a mystery who did it, why the damage wasn't worse, and why there were no follow-up attacks. MOST INTELLIGENCE reports have indicated al-Qaeda has concluded for now that plenty of terror can be extracted by well-timed conventional explosives and suicide bombs. But biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons may not be unreachable for terrorists much longer. Oliver Morton, a prominent British lecturer and writer on scientific subjects, thinks the propagation of knowledge about WMDs makes it imperative to keep up a strong guard of monitoring and intelligence. "While it seems to me entirely conceivable for such an adversary to develop a truly horrifying weapon, one capable of killing millions, it also seems comparatively unlikely that the first weapon any such adversary develops will work according to plan," says Morton. As different approaches are tried, there will be "fizzles or ranging shots," he predicts. So far, germ warfare has been mostly a tale of anxiety and fizzles. But we haven't seen the end of the WMD threat. As a new, potentially more menacing leadership is installed in Iran, the potential for nuclear terror is growing. John Hall is the senior Washington correspondent of Media General News Service. E-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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