...................................................................
Hizbollah won, but Israel didn't lose Aziz P http://www.deanesma <http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/1156256603.shtml> y.com/posts/1156256603.shtml The concensus is that the Lebanon-Israeli conflict was a complete debacle. At the outset of the conflict, I mourned that Hizbollah was winning, again. It's worth reading Greg Djerjian for the definitive post-"cease fire" analysis http://www.belgravi <http://www.belgraviadispatch.com/2006/08/the_isrealilebanese_denouement.htm l> adispatch.com/2006/08/the_isrealilebanese_denouement.html in terms of what strategic advantage Israel has lost. Abu Aardvark has some observations about what the Arab press is saying. And Charles Malik has a morose look at the political scene in Lebanon. http://lebop. <http://lebop.blogspot.com/2006/08/hezbollah-saniora-jumblatt-determined.htm l> blogspot.com/2006/08/hezbollah-saniora-jumblatt-determined.html Still, despite all the ways in which Israel came out the worse for its efforts, I can point to a few positives. 1. Some argue that the "myth of Israeli invincibility" with respect to conventional arms is now shaken. I argue otherwise: Israel showed that it could destroy Lebanon. Don't imagine for a moment that the message was not received in Damascus. As Razib pointed out, political rulers in Arab countries are not bred for suicidal impulses. http://dean2004. <http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2006/07/premises-about-human-nature.html> blogspot.com/2006/07/premises-about-human-nature.html And of course the elephant in the room is Israel's nuclear weapons, which everyone knows exist and which were not used. If anything, the take-home message is: Israel's not going anywhere, least of all the sea. Even Hizbollah's vaunted victory over Israel was in a strictly defensive context. 2. Even greater contempt for Arab regimes by the Arab people. Abu Aardvark touches on this in more detail, but in a nutshell the Arab regimes basically own-goaled themselves from a PR perspective. The general view is that Arab rulers are totally irrelevant when it comes to the defense of the Arab polity. From Israel's perspective this is a tremendously important development. 3. Iran is actually under increased scrutiny. The rise of Hizbollah and Nasrallah to folk hero status means that the Arab regimes see Iran as an even bigger threat to what they care about - not Islam, but rather their hold on power (see Point 2 above). Iranian money is flooding Lebanon right now which guarantees that they will have tremendous influence over Lebanon's future (another wasted opportunity by the US, but don't get me started). But more broadly speaking, for the region as a whole, Iran is now firmly on the threat radar. And the overblown promises of doomsday on Aug 22nd haven't exactly come to pass either. Overall, the point is that the Israel-Lebanon conflict served to throw pressure on the old fault lines of division in the region - and in some cases, those fault lines are useful in fracturing the threat facing Israel. When everyone who hates Israel hates each other just as much, then part of that hate energy is diffused. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
