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Shaun Waterman
UPI Homeland and National Security Editor
E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Tel: 202 898 8081
http://homeland-hack.blogspot.com/

Baker-Hamilton report slams U.S. intel on Iraq, says violence
under-counted

By SHAUN WATERMAN
UPI Homeland and National Security Editor

WASHINGTON, Dec. 7 (UPI) -- The incoming chairman of the House
intelligence committee is pledging hearings after the Baker-Hamilton
report found weaknesses and deliberate distortions in U.S. intelligence
about the situation in Iraq. 

U.S. military and intelligence agencies "have not invested sufficient
people and resources to understand the political and military threat to
American men and women in the armed forces" from the insurgency in Iraq,
the report found. 

The 10-member bipartisan Iraq Study Group, headed by former GOP
Secretary of State James Baker and former Democratic Congressman Lee
Hamilton, also said that statistics complied by the U.S. military
deliberately under-counted violence in Iraq. 

"The standard for recording attacks acts as a filter to keep events out
of reports and databases," found the group's report, adding that murders
of Iraqis were often not counted as acts of violence by the U.S.
military if the perpetrators could not be identified. "For example, on
one day in July 2006 there were 93 attacks or significant acts of
violence reported. Yet a careful review of the reports for that single
day brought to light 1,100 acts of violence." 

"Good policy is difficult to make when information is systematically
collected in a way that minimizes its discrepancy with policy goals,"
concludes the report. 

Calling the report's conclusions "troubling," Rep. Silvestre Reyes,
D-Texas, who will chair the House Permanent Select Committee on
Intelligence in the 110th Congress next year, said "One of my first
actions ... will be to convene a series of comprehensive hearings" on
the issue. 

His Senate counterpart, Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., noted that the report
"also correctly points to the shortcomings in human intelligence,
language skills, and analytical resources," promising he would be
"looking closely at the recommendations to determine if there is any way
for Congress to assist the Intelligence Community in correcting these
deficiencies." 

One Rockefeller aide added that while U.S. agencies had a pretty good
grip on what he called "The macro-level ... the political dynamics of
the insurgency," he said intelligence was much weaker "at the tactical
level, in figuring out who the cell leaders are, how they communicate
and coordinate, how they relate to each other" and to other local
leaders. 

One particular weakness the report identified was in human intelligence,
where it quoted "A senior commander" in Iraq as saying that human
intelligence "has improved from 10 percent to 30 percent." 

As intelligence analyst was quoted as saying that lack of language and
cultural skills meant, "We rely too much on others to bring information
to us, and too often don't understand what is reported back because we
do not understand the context of what we are told." 

"Clearly," the report goes on, "U.S. intelligence agencies can and must
do better." 

The report also states the knowledge U.S. intelligence has about "the
organization, leadership, financing, and operations of militias, as well
as their relationship to government security forces, also falls far
short of what policy makers need to know." 

But some agencies began pushing back against the report's findings
Wednesday. 

"We were told that there are fewer than 10 analysts on the job at the
Defense Intelligence Agency who have more than two years' experience in
analyzing the insurgency," the report's authors write. 

"That statement is not accurate," said DIA Spokesman Don Black. "We have
many, many more analysts with that experience or greater ... working the
insurgency problem set." 

Black added "I don't want to argue with the report. We are reviewing
it." 

Paul Hughes, a senior study group staffer, told United Press
International that the figure had come from one of the people
interviewed as part of the group's inquiry -- all of whom had been
promised anonymity. He said the figure had not been checked with the
agency, but the group stood behind the report. 

The group concluded that U.S. agencies "must have a better personnel
system to keep analytic expertise focused on the insurgency. They are
not doing enough to map the insurgency, dissect it, and understand it on
a national and provincial level." 

Despite having allocated almost $2 billion this year to develop
technology and other countermeasures to protect troops in Iraq against
deadly road-side bombs, the administration has made no effort "to invest
comparable resources in trying to understand the people who fabricate,
plant, and explode those devices." 

The study group recommends that the Director of National Intelligence
John Negroponte and incoming Secretary of Defense Robert Gates should
"devote significantly greater analytic resources to the task of
understanding the threats and sources of violence in Iraq," and
"institute immediate changes in the collection of data about violence
... to provide a more accurate picture of events on the ground." 

It also recommends that the CIA should increase its personnel in Iraq to
train their Iraqi counterparts, and should partner with Iraqi officials
to set up a "counter-terrorism intelligence center for the all-source
fusion of information on the various sources of terrorism within Iraq." 

"This center would analyze data concerning the individuals,
organizations, networks, and support groups involved in terrorism within
Iraq. It would also facilitate intelligence-led police and military
actions against them." 

Hughes said the center might be modeled on the United States'
multi-agency National Counter-Terrorism Center. 

A CIA official authorized to speak to the media would say only that the
agency was reviewing its finding and recommendations.

(c) Copyright 2006 United Press International, Inc. All Rights Reserved.


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