http://www.dawn.com/2006/12/09/int16.htm

ISG study worries Lebanon's anti-Syrian lobby

By Tom Perry


BEIRUT: The call by an elite US panel for Washington to talk to Damascus 
has left Beirut's anti-Syrian leaders wondering if their US ally will 
permit Syria to reassert itself in Lebanon in exchange for help over 
Iraq.The Iraq Study Group, led by former US Secretary of State James 
Baker, has proposed that the United States abandon its policy of 
shunning both Syria and Iran, accused of fomenting Iraq violence, to 
prevent "a slide towards chaos" there.

It is not clear if all the panel's ideas will be adopted by US President 
George W. Bush, who holds up Lebanon as a model of democracy and 
denounces Syria as a safe haven for terrorists.

Bush on Thursday again gave strong backing to Lebanese prime minister, 
Fouad Siniora, and said Syria was trying to destabilise the government 
in Beirut.

But the public support might gave way to private concessions to Syria, 
some Lebanese fear, as Washington casts around for ways to extricate 
itself from vicious conflict in Iraq

Syria would want the US to concede it has a role in Lebanon where it 
held greater sway until Western pressure helped force out its troops 
last year.

"The need for Syria to help pacify Iraq will give the Syrians the chance 
to assert their influence in Lebanon," said Hilal Khashan, a political 
scientist at the American University of Beirut.

"It wouldn't surprise me if trying to improve the situation in Iraq 
would imply making certain concessions in Lebanon."

Lebanon's fate seems already to have been bargained away, wrote 
prominent commentator Talal Salman in his As-Safir daily, referring to 
the Iraq report. "Lebanese leaders must take note that the deal has 
almost been done above their heads."

The anti-Syrian coalition in government, known as the March 14 movement, 
came to office after the Syrian withdrawal. With the support of 
Washington and Paris, it has made combating Syrian influence a priority.

The anti-Syrian leaders are trying to push on with plans for an 
international tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of Rafik 
al-Hariri -- the former premier whose slaying in February 2005 they 
blame on Damascus. Syria denies involvement.

But the March 14 coalition is facing a fierce challenge by the 
opposition led by Hezbollah, a group backed by both Syria and Iran, 
which has paralysed the heart of Beirut for the past week to push its 
demand for a power of veto in government.

Hezbollah, anti-Syrian leaders say, aims to restore Syrian control in 
Lebanon and to derail the international tribunal.---Reuters

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