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13 December 2006 Time running out for Nepal With less than six months before crucial elections, the government still has not begun administrative measures and Maoist insurgents have yet to lay down their arms. [Nepal (BBC)] BBC Commentary by Sudeshna Sarkar for ISN Security Watch (13/12/06) Since assuming the post of Nepalese prime minister in April, former opposition leader Girija Prasad Koirala has fast acquired a reputation for making off-the-cuff statements that ruffle the feathers of foes and friends alike. The first bombshell was dropped soon after his swearing-in. While on a visit to his ancestral home in the southeastern town of Biratnagar, the octogenarian politician caused a controversy when he said that Nepal's new political system - to be decided by a crucial vote next year - should accommodate all political forces, including the Maoist guerrillas and King Gyanendra. That remark created a furor. Since 2002, seven of Nepal's major parties had been leading public protests against the king's attempt to control the government. After appointing three successive prime ministers, in February 2005, King Gyanendra staged a bloodless coup with the help of the army and assumed total control. Mass protests forced him to step down in April this year, after 15 months of government marked by corruption, nepotism and a crackdown on civil rights. There was, however, a positive development: The royal regime forged a pact between the seven-party opposition and the communist guerrillas, who had been waging an armed struggle since 1996, demanding the abolition of the monarchy. The rebels agreed to lay down their arms and join the public protests, while the parties pledged to hold an election by June 2007 to choose a constituent assembly. This special assembly will decide the fate of Nepal's monarchy. There was widespread outrage that Koirala, who led the April protests, was now considering keeping the king on as a ceremonial head of state. Since then, Koirala has stoked fresh controversy by asking the Maoists to lay down their arms before any further changes are made. The new statement, made on Sunday, goes against the two accords the government signed with the Maoists last month. The Maoists, while refusing to disarm, have agreed to keep their soldiers confined in seven cantonments and 21 satellite camps, with the weapons under lock and key and under UN supervision. After reaching this understanding, the government and the guerrillas began finalizing a new constitution, which, once implemented, will dissolve the government to make way for a new one - in which the Maoists will be included. However, the two forces have yet to reach a consensus on the new constitution regarding the post of head of state. The Maoists want the new prime minister or speaker to hold the post, while Koirala is pushing for the king, at least until the June election decides his fate. A meeting between the heads of the seven parties and Maoist supremo Pushpa Kamal Dahal, known by his nom de guerre Prachanda, is scheduled for Wednesday. But events so far - including a Tuesday protest against Koirala's statements - seem to indicate that the meeting will be a turbulent one. The People's Front Nepal party and the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (UML), both partners in the government, are siding with the Maoists over the issue. In the meantime, the Maoists warn that if the new constitution is not finalized by 15 December, the June poll will be delayed. If that happens, the rebels say though they would not call off the ceasefire, they would not feel obliged to honor the peace and arms pacts. Even if the new constitution is agreed upon and implemented by Saturday, there is doubt if the election can be held by June. The compiling of a new voters' list will prove a massive task, as will other pre-election preparations. A UN technical mission began work in Nepal this week to assess the needs for setting up a full UN mission to support the peace process. It will submit its report to the UN Secretary-General who in turn will place it before the UN Security Council for approval. With Kofi Annan's term as secretary-general ending on 31 December, it is uncertain whether the Nepal decisions will be made without any hiatus. Though the 15-member council has already approved the deployment of 35 arms monitors and 25 election advisers, it will take three weeks at the least to recruit the personnel and deploy them. And the arms monitors will have their work cut out for them. In an attempt to keep up a powerful image, the Maoists are claiming to have over 35,000 hardcore fighters, though independent military analysts put the figure at 4,000-5,000. The fear is that the rebels will try to pass off their militia as soldiers to boost their numbers. Locking up arms could also prove a contentious issue. The Nepal Army has agreed, as a goodwill gesture, to lay down the same number and caliber of arms, under UN supervision. As such, the rebels are likely to attempt to inflate their arsenal. Nepal is racing against a looming humanitarian crisis as well. Given the poor infrastructure of the makeshift cantonments and the sudden bleak winter, guerrilla soldiers are fighting diseases, malnutrition, bad sanitation and tainted water supply. There could be an outbreak of epidemics in the camps, desertions or even revolt. Finally, it is Koirala who faces the most frantic race against time, being in his mid-80s and suffering from acute breathing problems. Despite his reputation for high-handedness, he is the only leader who can keep the opposition together and continue negotiations with the Maoists. No one has been able to come up with a possible successor to Koirala. Therefore, the patriarch's absence is likely to see a bitter struggle for power among his allies, leading to the disintegration of the alliance and its pact with the Maoists. Sudeshna Sarkar is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in Nepal. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN). [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. 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