http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,20978257-5005369,00.html 2006 a bloody year for terror THIS past year has been one of the bloodiest on record for terrorism, largely due to the ongoing carnage in Iraq. As many as 655,000 Iraqis have been killed during the war since 2003, a Johns Hopkins University study claims. I define terrorism as "politically (including socially and religiously) motivated violence, mainly directed against non-combatants, intended to shock and terrify, to achieve a strategic outcome". Terrorism may be perpetrated by individuals, groups or states. Historically, states have been far more efficient at killing civilians than individuals or groups. In 2006 the war in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel accounted for 1183 Lebanese and 163 Israeli deaths. Ethnic cleansing in Darfur, Sudan, has resulted in at least 300,000 deaths since 2003. The multi-faceted Afghanistan conflict accounted for at least 4000 Afghan deaths in 2006, while NATO/US forces there suffered nearly 200 deaths during the year. The tit-for-tat terrorism, since September 2000, between the Palestinians and Israelis in Gaza and the West Bank has resulted in about 4400 Palestinian deaths and 1100 Israeli deaths. This year, the ratio of Palestinian deaths to Israeli deaths moved closer to 10 to one, notwithstanding the recent Hamas versus Fatah violence. Numbers do not, of course, tell the full story. Terrorists and insurgents play for time and encourage their adversaries to kill civilians as it suits their purpose. Every civilian that an "occupation" force kills in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine or Chechnya makes them more enemies. Time will always beat capability. It is a truism that military forces and politicians don't yet seem ready to acknowledge, despite all the evidence. In terms of operations by terrorist groups in the West, they are having less success against better prepared security services. Seventeen Muslim prospective terrorists were arrested in Ontario, Canada, in June, and a plot to detonate an aircraft liquid explosive bomb in the UK was foiled in August. There were also significant arrests throughout the year in Europe. The greatest loss of life in one terrorist incident was the Indian Mumbai train bombing in July. The bombing killed 259 commuters, mainly Hindus. Pakistan-based terrorists were responsible for the deadly attack. It did not, however, achieve its intended purpose of disrupting the Indian economy or sparking sectarian violence. The issue of terrorism by states is contentious and tends to get put in the too-hard basket. In the case of state terrorism (or war crimes), victor's justice prevailed, meaning the occasional sacrifice of low-level perpetrators, but no attempt made to deal with culpable senior policymakers. Clearly, Russian state terrorism habits die hard, demonstrated by the spate of probable FSB-organised assassinations of those critical of President Putin and his cronies. In Australia, terrorism organiser Faheem Khalid Lodhi was convicted of terrorism offences and sentenced in August to 20 years in jail. He was the first to be convicted under the new 2005 anti-terrorism legislation. Melbourne terror suspect Jack Thomas faces a new trial based on admissions he made to The Age newspaper and ABC TV's Four Corners program. More than 20 other alleged terrorists from Sydney and Melbourne have been remanded in custody to stand trial. David Hicks attracted increasing public sympathy and the Howard Government's case for leaving him to American "justice" seemed increasingly threadbare. So, what are the terrorism prospects for 2007? US President George W. Bush will keep on floundering indecisively over Iraq. Whatever the US does, the insurgent and terrorist violence looks set to continue. NATO looks like staying the course in Afghanistan at least until Bush leaves office, but the prognosis is for the security situation there to continue to deteriorate. Israel will continue to play for time and hope that no one challenges its gradual absorption of the West Bank. The Government in Sudan will count on the West not being sufficiently motivated to prevent the Janjaweed ethnic cleansing of land-tilling tribesmen, Russia will continue its heavy-handed occupation of Chechnya and the low-level terrorism in southern Thailand and the Philippines will continue. Strategically, there seems little likelihood of anyone addressing the root causes that terrorist groups exploit to gain new members - or which motivate self-starter Muslim groups in the West to strike at their host societies for their "anti-Muslim" foreign policies. In 2006, Australia and its close allies managed to stay on top of their domestic security situations. This involved a combination of luck and good management. There can, of course, be no guarantee that we will continue to be as lucky in 2007. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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