SPIEGEL ONLINE - February 22, 2007, 05:53 PM
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,468105,00.html
THE WORLD FROM BERLIN
Coalition of the Willing?

Blair's announcement that the UK will withdraw a large part of its 
forces from Iraq was bound to cause strong reactions. The German dailies 
wonder where this will leave Bush, and whether the UK is actually 
raising the white flag.

No matter how much positive spin UK Prime Minister Tony Blair put on it, 
his announcement that a portion of UK forces is being withdrawn from 
Iraq could not help but be seen as the United States' main ally in the 
war pulling out -- just as US President George W. Bush has announced 
massive reinforcements for the American forces there.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced Wednesday that the UK will 
withdraw about 1,600 soldiers from Iraq in the "coming months" and aims 
to have troop levels below 5,000 by late summer -- if the local forces 
can secure the southern part of the country currently under British control.

The Danes also announced Wednesday they were leaving. Prime Minister 
Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that the 460 Danish troops in the south of 
the country will have left by August. He added: "We expect that the 
Iraqis during 2007 will take over security in southern Iraq."

Like other commentators around the world, Germany's papers Thursday felt 
that Blair's decision was -- with an eye to his place in the history 
books -- linked to his imminent departure from office. The one thing 
everyone agreed on was that the announcement could not come as welcome 
news to Bush.

The left-of-center Berliner Zeitung writes:

"Every mention of the 'coalition of the willing' reminds us that there 
is not much left of the international 'willing' troops in Iraq. After 
the declaration yesterday from the British and the Danes that they would 
withdraw, the coalition actually now exists only on paper, and the 
expression has become a synonym for political and military 
miscalculation. It has already been a synonym for violating 
international law for a long time. ...

"Bush was clearly not even in the position to persuade his allies Tony 
Blair and Anders Fogh Rasmussen to delay their statements until after 
the next round of voting on Iraq in Congress. The news comes at a time 
when the current US offensive appears to even be leading to an increase 
in violence in Iraq -- and the withdrawal announcements from London and 
Copenhagen sound more than ever like declarations of surrender."

The center-right daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"Blair is under pressure. After all, it was the military leadership 
which recently saw the British presence as a problem -- and we don't 
need to mention what the general public thinks. Blair has not fulfilled 
the hopes of the military -- the scope of the withdrawal is not large 
enough and the time schedule is too imprecise.

"One can rule out that his motive was to do a favor for his presumed 
successor, Gordon Brown -- the animosity between the two is too great 
for that. It probably has more to do with the fact that the situation in 
Basra does not correspond to the images of civil war coming from 
Baghdad. And the fact that the security forces -- which are infiltrated 
by Shiites -- have 'proved' themselves as capable of keeping order."

The business daily Financial Times Deutschland writes:

"The withdrawal of 1,600 soldiers that Blair announced yesterday is 
above all a clear message to the British at home: The security situation 
in the south of Iraq, where the UK's troops are stationed, has improved 
so much that fewer foreign soldiers will be needed there in the future. 
It's a first message of success, then, rather than capitulation.

"Whether Blair's withdrawal suits Bush is questionable. Many war-weary 
American television viewers will ask why their own boys have to keep 
fighting when their most important allies are leaving. For Bush as well 
as Blair, it will come down to whether they can convince their voters of 
their interpretation of the facts: that the situation in Iraq is 
difficult but not hopeless."

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"If Blair cannot leave behind a stable and democratic Iraq, as he had 
once imagined it, he wants to at least resign having partly kept his 
promise that British troops would not be bogged down for the long term 
in a civil war in Iraq. ...

"If Bush and the British are lucky, they will manage the withdrawal in 
good time. For Bush and the Americans, however, their own withdrawal 
operation will become much more difficult. The US president has no hope 
of being able to bring his troops back home in the foreseeable future. 
If he did so, Iraq would probably sink into civil war and the whole 
Middle East region would fall into new chaos. Bush has to worry much 
more about his place in the history books than Blair."

-- David Gordon Smith, 5 p.m. CET

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