SPIEGEL ONLINE - February 23, 2007, 06:36 PM
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,468118,00.html
IRAQ TROOP WITHDRAWAL
British Leaving Basra to the Mahdi Militia

By Bernhard Zand

Southern Iraq is relatively secure. But the British have not taken 
advantage of the four years of occupation to develop this bleak region. 
Now that they are pulling out, the Shiite Mahdi militia are standing by 
to take over.

When Hussein Ali Kassim left a friend's house a few nights ago in the 
southern Iraqi city of Basra, the midnight scene was quite unlike what 
one might expect to see in war-torn Baghdad: Drivers were out and about 
and fruit sellers plied their sweets beneath street corner lamp posts. 
There were neither car bombs bursting nor the kind of strictly enforced 
night-time curfews common in Baghdad.

"The security situation in Basra is good," says Kassim, a local 
pharmacist. "It's still worse than before the war, but it's improving 
every month."

That is exactly the conclusion that the British Prime Minister Tony 
Blair reached this week. On Wednesday, he announced the withdrawal of 
1,600 of 7,000 British soldiers stationed in southern Iraq, citing an 
improved security situation in the town and a drop in murders to 30 in 
December. Sectarian violence in Basra has fallen "enormously," Blair said.

Compared to the 50 daily murders common in Baghdad, this is indeed an 
improvement. Reconstruction aid is flowing into the city, and while 
Iraqis in other parts of the country are battling it out with 
extremists, Basra's people have been spared the headline-making horrors.

"There is real progress there and we don't want to get in the way of 
that progress" by staying too long in the country, Blair noted.

Indeed, the situation couldn't be more different in Baghdad. President 
George W. Bush has begun sending an additional 20,000 troops to the 
Iraqi capital despite opposition from the US congress.

But does the fact that the British are sending troops home mean "mission 
accomplished" in southern Iraq? Not really.

Kassim, the pharmacist in Basra, is reluctant to talk candidly about the 
situation. Why is everything really so quiet in Basra? Who exactly 
controls the streets?

And who really takes care of imposing order? The police? The British? 
The Iraqi army? The militias?

"I can't say anything about that at the moment. I'm surrounded by people 
here. Let's talk about it later," he says.

British fail in Basra

The strategic advantage that the British had from the very beginning was 
that Basra, unlike other parts of Iraq, boasts a relatively homogeneous 
population sharing similar religious beliefs. The sectarian wars 
plaguing the rest of the country never spread here. Shiite-dominated 
southern Iraq suffered under Saddam, and for this reason, there was less 
resistance to the presence of foreign troops than was the case in 
central Iraq.

Added to this, Sunni extremists, al-Qaida in Iraq, and Fedayeen units 
loyal to the former regime, never gained a foothold in southern Iraq, 
which meant that Basra was spared the devastating bomb attacks 
responsible for hundreds of deaths elsewhere in the nation.

The British faced a different set of challenges in their sector, namely 
to recapture state authority, to mute the influence of Iranian-backed 
militias, and to focus on fixing war damage inflicted upon this 
country's poorest region.

Did they succeed? Despite the number of troops deployed here, the answer 
is no.

Today many parts of the city lack running water. Blackouts are a daily 
occurrence. Many seriously ill people have to reckon with taking a 
dangerous journey to Baghdad when they need anything other than aspirin 
or charcoal pills.

"Before the war we would ask for leukaemia medicine and know that the 
wait to get it could be long," says an oncologist at Basra's university 
hospital. "Today, when we make requests, we are pretty certain nothing 
will arrive."

Even though southern Iraq's oil industry is producing and exporting less 
oil than it did before for the war, its pumps and pipelines are actually 
operating at capacity -- aging, damaged valves, and insufficient storage 
make production increases impossible. There is scant discussion -- on 
the British side, anyway -- of how this critical economic jewel might 
one day fuel Iraqi's economic recovery. It would not be unfair to say 
that the British missed their chance to build a much-needed 
infrastructure here in this relatively peaceful region where such 
projects might have been successful.

75 percent of the police are loyal to Sadr

To be sure, the British have neither improved security in the region nor 
rebuilt a functioning state apparatus independent of Iranian influence. 
Thus, while the British army officially handed over power to the 10th 
Division of the Iraqi Army this weekend, locals like Kassim the 
pharmacist and others are not sure they are up to the task.

The town's police is efficient, albeit dominated by members of the 
Mahdi, a Shiite militia loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr. According to 
journalist Ghalid Khazal, 75 percent of the city's police officers 
follow orders from Sadr headquarters. That number is roughly the same as 
that mentioned by General Major Hassan Sawadi, the former police chief 
of Basra, one and a half years ago, when he said. "I estimate that 80 
percent of the force's members do not obey my orders."

Tony Blair said that George W. Bush was completely satisfied with 
British plans to withdraw troops from Iraq. One man, however, is even 
more pleased by the move, for the British retreat means a gain for his 
group. Abd al-Karim al Insi, the Basra representative of Shiite ruler 
Moqtada al-Sadr, sees the departure as affirming an adage popular among 
Arabs during British colonial exploits in the region 100 years ago: 
"Nobody knows Mecca better than the people from Mecca."

"Since the invasion, we have pushed for the occupiers to leave Ihraq," 
al Insi said. "Nobody can protect our country better than we can. We 
welcome this first step in the British withdrawal. Hopefully the 
Americans will present a timetable soon."


© SPIEGEL ONLINE 2007
All Rights Reserved

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